raindancewx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 The SOI objective top matches for Oct-Dec correctly flagged the February pattern last year two months in advance. This year, the blend shows a nearly opposite setup. The SOI blends never get the magnitude of the heat or cold right though. For whatever reason, the December SOI in particular is a much better indicator for February than January. The CFS/Canadian/CPC outlook for January looks like Sept 16-Oct 15 temp anomalies in the US, after Aug 16-Sept 15 looked like December temp anomalies. I know the matches aren't exact, the idea is you had a very warm December nationally, but the same areas as Sept 16-Oct 15 were ''protected" relatively, and the same areas that were cold Oct 16-Nov 15 look cold in January, with heat concentrated somewhere in the East. If that is right for January, it means there is a pretty strong chance Oct 16-Nov 15 will be about right nationally for February, and then you guys cash in on cold/snow in March. 2016-17 has been a close NAO match in the predictive time frames, it "seems" right. Basically, I think March may be the best month for snow in the NE - the subtropical waves of moisture in the SW that energized your systems in late Nov-early Dec should return in March going by the timing of the MJO and the pattern overall. February I could see being frigid in Central areas of the US. Blending NAO monthly changes for May-Apr, and Sept-Mar works pretty well. In those time frames, 2016-17 was a good match...and March 2017 had the -NAO. We'll see. None of this will work if the models are completely wrong foe January. Continuing the pattern forward, April would probably be very cold in the Rockies and very hot elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m big on how we get there vs total snowfall as well. Last season was normal snow but it was a D- winter imo. Ya I thought last year was a real dud too.....my favorite since we moved here in 2004 was 2010-11.....that on started with such a buzzkill with the Boxing Day disaster but then took off and for 30-40 glorious days it was so epic....great accumulations on a very frequent basis with record pack....achieved 34” pack which hasn’t been surpassed yet....the driveway walls were so epic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 I like February and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 49 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Ya I thought last year was a real dud too.....my favorite since we moved here in 2004 was 2010-11.....that on started with such a buzzkill with the Boxing Day disaster but then took off and for 30-40 glorious days it was so epic....great accumulations on a very frequent basis with record pack....achieved 34” pack which hasn’t been surpassed yet....the driveway walls were so epic.... Yea 10/11 is an all time for me. I landed 24” in CNJ for Boxing Day and then staying at my girls in Danbury for Jan was nuts. I doubt I’ll ever see two 24” storms within a few weeks of each other again...unless I purposely plan for or chase it. Although we want long winters I’m OK with punting Feb/Mar if you give me a 45 day stretch of continuous weenie tugs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogmios Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like February and March. CanSIPS says think again: Issued Jan 1, 2020 For posterity Jan 2020 Feb 2020 - Gotta keep the -PNA March 2020 - Spreading my warmth in the western expansion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ogmios said: CanSIPS says think again: Issued Jan 1, 2020 For posterity Jan 2020 Feb 2020 - Gotta keep the -PNA March 2020 - Spreading my warmth in the western expansion Yes, January has always looked mild to me. I'm in agreement with the RNA....those depictions for February will be right if the Atlantic doesn't pan out. I still think that it will. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 So Raindance says we have one month, March...so exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So Raindance says we have one month, March...so exciting. I only had 5 so far this year. If I get shut out would be my 3rd worst winter behind 97 98 and 2001 2002. I can roote for that in order to get it out of the way. Then clear sailing in the coming years. Is Cansnips or CFS monthlies more accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 PNA is never coming back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 what a winter. one to remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Man the upcoming pattern looks fugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 On 12/31/2019 at 9:21 PM, raindancewx said: That 8.5" December for Boston my analogs had held pretty well it looks like, despite over 7" the first couple of days. My precipitation analogs have been pretty awesome so far for a blend created in Sept/Oct. Two distinct dry areas and two distinct wet areas both basically in the right spots to date. Well the Logan total was 11.5 which was 10% above normal. Your 8.5 call is 15% below normal so I don’t know how you can verify yourself with what transpired. I mean if I call 17 inches in a 20 inch normal place and 22 verified my call failed. Good work on the precip pattern however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Man the upcoming pattern looks fugly. We blew our good pattern load in Nov and early Dec. Now it will take 6-8 weeks to swing back around. We could thread the needle on a threat or two but this is a carbon copy theme of last season. Early and Late with trash in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We blew our good pattern load in Nov and early Dec. Now it will take 6-8 weeks to swing back around. We could thread the needle on a threat or two but this is a carbon copy theme of last season. Early and Late with trash in between. I think according to CFS weeklies we get a period starting Feb 1 but the question I have is whether it's a 2 week Patten reload or a flip. The last frame of the weeklies looks like the trough is moving west again. That coupled with the SSTs in Pacific and Around Australia makes me think a 2 week winter period then we are done for winter. Hope I am wrong and would love for someone to argue for a better outcome (and not someone from NNE who has a completely different environment than SNE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: I think according to CFS weeklies we get a period starting Feb 1 but the question I have is whether it's a 2 week Patten reload or a flip. The last frame of the weeklies looks like the trough is moving west again. That coupled with the SSTs in Pacific and Around Australia makes me think a 2 week winter period then we are done for winter. Hope I am wrong and would love for someone to argue for a better outcome (and not someone from NNE who has a completely different environment than SNE). wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 I saw Eric Fisher mentioned Boston hasn't been 32F or less since Dec 22, 2019. That's a pretty remarkable streak. As far as evaluating my stuff goes, I don't really care if a call is above/below average, I score myself on the absolute value of the difference between reality and the forecast. So for December, it'd be (Fcst-Obs)/(Obs). So (8.5-11.5)/11.5 --- a 26.1% error on a blend made in early October for December. It's not amazing, but I'm not even trying to forecast monthly snow totals really, so I'll take it - I'm much more interested in the seasonal totals, and when we get to late April I'll release how well I did for snow nationally, I included a couple dozen cities in my outlook, all over the US. If you look at the SST data from Oct-Dec, we've gone from a pretty canonical, even an idealized, El Nino Modoki, which favored the cold East in late Oct/Nov, to a setup where Nino 4 is warm, but the solid gradation of very warm Nino 4 to very cool Nino 1.2 is gone. Nino 1.2 was way warmer in an anomaly sense than Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 You need to subtract 2F from BOS temps rain dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 hours ago, raindancewx said: I saw Eric Fisher mentioned Boston hasn't been 32F or less since Dec 22, 2019. That's a pretty remarkable streak. As far as evaluating my stuff goes, I don't really care if a call is above/below average, I score myself on the absolute value of the difference between reality and the forecast. So for December, it'd be (Fcst-Obs)/(Obs). So (8.5-11.5)/11.5 --- a 26.1% error on a blend made in early October for December. It's not amazing, but I'm not even trying to forecast monthly snow totals really, so I'll take it - I'm much more interested in the seasonal totals, and when we get to late April I'll release how well I did for snow nationally, I included a couple dozen cities in my outlook, all over the US. If you look at the SST data from Oct-Dec, we've gone from a pretty canonical, even an idealized, El Nino Modoki, which favored the cold East in late Oct/Nov, to a setup where Nino 4 is warm, but the solid gradation of very warm Nino 4 to very cool Nino 1.2 is gone. Nino 1.2 was way warmer in an anomaly sense than Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 in December. The climate page lists a low of 32 in 12/25. Eric is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: The climate page lists a low of 32 in 12/25. Eric is wrong. Eric was right. His tweet was Boston hasn’t been below 32° since 12/22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Eric was right. His tweet was Boston hasn’t been below 32° since 12/22. So it’s not aob but just below? Eric was right, rain dance interpreted or transposed it wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 23 minutes ago, weathafella said: So it’s not aob but just below? Eric was right, rain dance interpreted or transposed it wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 ** but nobody cares when they want to verify their forecasts or agenda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 I mean yeah, it’s kind of a shit tweet that should have asterisks all over it, but it is what it is. He loves a good torch though...loves to see the weenies burn with each torch tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: I mean yeah, it’s kind of a shit tweet that should have asterisks all over it, but it is what it is. He loves a good torch though...loves to see the weenies burn with each torch tweet. Cept he admits Bos is wrong. Kind of what's wrong with the entire agenda stuff on both sides. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 it's here...panic mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 The two week period he mentions is kind of impressive historically - Long term, I think the NE snow season is gradually shifting later and shorter, from a mid Nov-early Apr time frame for big snows, to late Dec to late March. That Feb 15 - Apr 15 period is always going to be somewhat protected for you guys with the Atlantic at its coldest. At this point, I'm just curious to see when the NYC + Philly + Baltimore + DC snow total will get ahead of ABQ snow to date. It's possible it happens this week, but even it does, I think we'll get at least some snow mid/late month. Long-term, your magic number for ~never getting above average snow seems to be a high of about 41/42F or more in DJF. Correlation between the 12/1-1/4 high and the 12/1-2/28 high is actually much stronger in Boston than for Albuquerque. The high of 44.1F for 12/1-1/4 in Boston implies, ~40.4F for DJF, +/-2.9F at 90% certainty. By itself, not a warm enough start to imply below average snow...but of course the mid month looks real warm, with some days in the 50s probably. The data for both graphs is 1931-32 to 2018-19 for Boston. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 DC next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Oh nooooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Truth be told....that cherry blossoms in dc picture looks inviting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now