CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 At least in 11-12 you knew it was hopeless throughout. This year is teasing enough to keep us interested with some snow down to the nrn high terrain of SNE. In 11-12...you had no hope. The teasing definitely irates me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 At this point, I say: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 93 had some pretty deep storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 6 hours ago, weathafella said: This one had so much promise that kind of went poof close to 2 months ago. it really didn't, jmo... unless you are relying on JB or one of these hype mets 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 6 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: it really didn't, jmo... unless you are relying on JB or one of these hype mets Every winter is cold and snowy for the E coast or NE in a JB forecast. I haven't seen him forecast a below normal snowfall and a NE torch ever. I haven't been following him for more than 5 years but every year its the same story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Every winter is cold and snowy for the E coast or NE in a JB forecast. I haven't seen him forecast a below normal snowfall and a NE torch ever. I haven't been following him for more than 5 years but every year its the same story. He is hype master.. new March analog (word of mouth, I did not read) is 1960 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 This winter had some things going for it to start among the colder and snowy analog years following a cold November and snowy December. But alas they don’t always work out. Some of the sub seasonal trends were favorable too until the big AK vortex set up. AK was due for some cold too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drop the Trough Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Has Ray updated his winter outlook with recent thoughts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Can't wait for someone in NC (not in the mountains) to get more snow this week in one storm than I have had all winter long.....that will feel pretty good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Good news everyone, we can all uncancel winter and get back to days and days...horrah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogmios Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Which then becomes rains to Maine and Northern New Brunswick: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ogmios said: Which then becomes rains to Maine and Northern New Brunswick: Only the 6Z GFS counts this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ogmios said: Which then becomes rains to Maine and Northern New Brunswick: Yeah I'm sure it'd be raining at FVE with the low east of the Cape. d16 magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogmios Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Only the 6Z GFS counts this winter. Every possibility counts it is just that you chose not to see the scenario that you do not want until there is a consistency in the models which for you have dragged on and on forever this winter as being warm and rainy. And only then when the walls do close on you as time approaches infinity at zero point time do you let your emotions control you, do I in my identification that must be worked on. And the only reason why I get snow is the Lattitude advantage I have over you which gives me a mixed climate of SNE and NNE at the same time where systems can change variably. I do empathize with you though that MN does not want to cooperate with you or me this winter, and for that matter last winter, but at least you were warm last winter and that was a given with your low snow, I was on the cold side of average with little no snow storm until Valentines Day last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ogmios said: Every possibility counts it is just that you chose not to see the scenario that you do not want until there is a consistency in the models which for you have dragged on and on forever this winter as being warm and rainy. And only then when the walls do close on you as time approaches infinity at zero point time do you let your emotions control you, do I in my identification that must be worked on. And the only reason why I get snow is the Lattitude advantage I have over you which gives me a mixed climate of SNE and NNE at the same time where systems can change variably. I do empathize with you though that MN does not want to cooperate with you or me this winter, and for that matter last winter, but at least you were warm last winter and that was a given with your low snow, I was on the cold side of average with little no snow storm until Valentines Day last winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 On 2/16/2020 at 10:38 PM, The 4 Seasons said: Every winter is cold and snowy for the E coast or NE in a JB forecast. I haven't seen him forecast a below normal snowfall and a NE torch ever. I haven't been following him for more than 5 years but every year its the same story. Even prior to his days on twitter he was always forecasting a cold and snowy winter for the east. He's sort of like Jackie Bradley when Bradley goes into one of his numerous slumps.....1 for 28 with 16 K's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogmios Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah I'm sure it'd be raining at FVE with the low east of the Cape. d16 magic. Never indicated that I believed that the model was going to magically happen as pointed out by that output. However as with the previous snow storm output it could happen just like it rains cats and dogs all day, but perhaps it can be sunny. With this progressive fast flow the models this far out are putrid which proves the lack of true understanding of our own climate during a cylindrical change from one regime to another whether global warming or even towards ice ages. Point being within the occult circles science as it is today is considered subjective because human beings do not have an understanding of our very psychology and lack understanding to properly discern data beyond a nit to cherry pick what we like and stick to our own biased view as per eye that looks upon us whether merciful or wrathful. Even I am bound for the moment to the same laws of the general law of gravity that keeps me heavy in my own views. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ogmios said: Every possibility counts it is just that you chose not to see the scenario that you do not want until there is a consistency in the models which for you have dragged on and on forever this winter as being warm and rainy. And only then when the walls do close on you as time approaches infinity at zero point time do you let your emotions control you, do I in my identification that must be worked on. And the only reason why I get snow is the Lattitude advantage I have over you which gives me a mixed climate of SNE and NNE at the same time where systems can change variably. I do empathize with you though that MN does not want to cooperate with you or me this winter, and for that matter last winter, but at least you were warm last winter and that was a given with your low snow, I was on the cold side of average with little no snow storm until Valentines Day last winter. Whoosh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogmios Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, mreaves said: Whoosh? Consider it my attempt to philosophize reason good or bad and even widely misunderstood. I am high in openness but low in conscientious as per big 5 personality traits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ogmios said: Never indicated that I believed that the model was going to magically happen as pointed out by that output. However as with the previous snow storm output it could happen just like it rains cats and dogs all day, but perhaps it can be sunny. With this progressive fast flow the models this far out are putrid which proves the lack of true understanding of our own climate during a cylindrical change from one regime to another whether global warming or even towards ice ages. Point being within the occult circles science as it is today is considered subjective because human beings do not have an understanding of our very psychology and lack understanding to properly discern data beyond a nit to cherry pick what we like and stick to our own biased view as per eye that looks upon us whether merciful or wrathful. Even I am bound for the moment to the same laws of the general law of gravity that keeps me heavy in my own views. tl;dr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 In a parallel universe the 384 hr GFS always verifies....Fukin awesome winter this year there....buried....feet and feet of snow.....pack up to your chin.....icicles to the ground....they’re hauling away the snow in dump trucks there’s so much of it.....it’s crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 hour ago, ice1972 said: In a parallel universe the 384 hr GFS always verifies....Fukin awesome winter this year there....buried....feet and feet of snow.....pack up to your chin.....icicles to the ground....they’re hauling away the snow in dump trucks there’s so much of it.....it’s crazy In a parallel universe water freezes at 100 degrees. Epic snows year round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcostell Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 hour ago, ice1972 said: In a parallel universe the 384 hr GFS always verifies....Fukin awesome winter this year there....buried....feet and feet of snow.....pack up to your chin.....icicles to the ground....they’re hauling away the snow in dump trucks there’s so much of it.....it’s crazy ...Friendly correction: Its COOperstown (HOF town name) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Hooray for math. As I've said...blending years with similar conditions for Sep minus Mar and May minus Apr produces good NAO predictions for winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 8 hours ago, mreaves said: Whoosh? to the Nth degree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Don't forget...the low solar + El Nino thing held last year too. El Nino Sun Jul-J Bos Snow 1899 18.2 25.0 1900 8.6 17.5 1902 18.7 42.0 1911 5.4 31.6 1913 7.4 39.0 1914 44.5 22.3 1923 14.6 29.8 1930 46.3 40.8 1953 9.5 23.6 1963 29.1 63.0 1965 37.1 44.1 1976 23.2 58.5 1986 19.1 42.5 1994 36.9 14.9 2006 20.1 17.1 2009 13.2 35.7 2018 5.5 27.4 Mean 21.0 33.8 2019 3 Roughly a 90% chance of 16-48" for the season going by 2/19-5/31 records since the 1890s for Boston. So...33.8 is probably as decent a guess as any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 The winters have sucked ever since I changed my name from Metsfan to Snow. Might have to change it back next winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 On 2/18/2020 at 10:18 PM, raindancewx said: Hooray for math. As I've said...blending years with similar conditions for Sep minus Mar and May minus Apr produces good NAO predictions for winter. That is a sample size of 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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