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NorEastermass128
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My NAO indicator for winter seems to be working again. If it continues to be right, March is your best shot for heavy snow in big Nor'easters. February...is not what you want if my idea is right.

NAO Sept-Mar May-Apr Dec
2017 -1.35 -3.64 0.88
1994 -2.58 -1.71 2.02
2017 -1.35 -3.64 0.88
Mean -1.76 -3.00 1.26
2019 -1.80 -3.09 1.20

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table 

2017   0.48   1.00   0.74   1.73  -1.91   0.05   1.26  -1.10  -0.61   0.19  -0.00   0.88
2018   1.44   1.58  -0.93   1.24   2.12   1.09   1.39   1.97   1.67   0.93  -0.11   0.61
1994   1.04   0.46   1.26   1.14  -0.57   1.52   1.31   0.38  -1.32  -0.97   0.64   2.02
1995   0.93   1.14   1.25  -0.85  -1.49   0.13  -0.22   0.69   0.31   0.19  -1.38  -1.67

(-0.93 x 2) + (1.25)/3 --> -0.2 NAO for March.

Here is last year -

1975   0.58  -0.62  -0.61  -1.60  -0.52  -0.84   1.55  -0.26   1.56  -0.54   0.41   0.00
1976  -0.25   0.93   0.75   0.26   0.96   0.80  -0.32   1.92  -1.29  -0.08   0.17  -1.60
2018   1.44   1.58  -0.93   1.24   2.12   1.09   1.39   1.97   1.67   0.93  -0.11   0.61
2019   0.59   0.29   1.23   0.47  -2.62  -1.09  -1.43  -1.17  -0.16  -1.41   0.28   1.20
NAO           Sept-Mar    May-Apr          DJF
1975 2.17 1.08 0.23
2018 2.60 0.88 0.50
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27 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Worse than 2001 for me

SEASON JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL

2000-01 0 0 0 T 0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0 0 0 35.0

2001-02 0 0 0 0 0 T 3.5 T T T 0 0 3.5

2002-03 0 0 0 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 0 0 49.3

2003-04 0 0 0 0 0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0 0 0 42.6

2004-05 0 0 0 0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0 0 0 41.0

2005-06 0 0 0 0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 0 0 40.0

2006-07 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 0 0 12.4

2007-08 0 0 0 0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0 0 0 11.9

2008-09 0 0 0 0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 0 0 27.6

2009-10 0 0 0 0 0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0 0 0 51.4

2010-11 0 0 0 0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 0 0 61.9

2011-12 0 0 0 2.9 0 0 4.3 0.2 0 0 0 0 7.4

2012-13 0 0 0 0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0 0 0 26.1

2013-14 0 0 0 0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 0 0 57.4

2014-15 0 0 0 0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0 0 0 50.3

2015-16 0 0 0 0 0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 0 0 32.8

2016-17 0 0 0 0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0 0 0 30.2

2017-18 0 0 0 0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 0 0 40.9

2018-19 0 0 0 0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0 0 0 20.5

Red = Ratters, under 10"

Blue = Good winters, 40+ers

 

You've been spoiled, we all have, in the 2000s.

So far 19-20 is at 4.8" for NYC which is already well ahead of 3.5" they got from 01-02, which was one single event every other day and month was only T.

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40 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

SEASON JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL

2000-01 0 0 0 T 0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0 0 0 35.0

2001-02 0 0 0 0 0 T 3.5 T T T 0 0 3.5

2002-03 0 0 0 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 0 0 49.3

2003-04 0 0 0 0 0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0 0 0 42.6

2004-05 0 0 0 0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0 0 0 41.0

2005-06 0 0 0 0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 0 0 40.0

2006-07 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 0 0 12.4

2007-08 0 0 0 0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0 0 0 11.9

2008-09 0 0 0 0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 0 0 27.6

2009-10 0 0 0 0 0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0 0 0 51.4

2010-11 0 0 0 0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 0 0 61.9

2011-12 0 0 0 2.9 0 0 4.3 0.2 0 0 0 0 7.4

2012-13 0 0 0 0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0 0 0 26.1

2013-14 0 0 0 0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 0 0 57.4

2014-15 0 0 0 0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0 0 0 50.3

2015-16 0 0 0 0 0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 0 0 32.8

2016-17 0 0 0 0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0 0 0 30.2

2017-18 0 0 0 0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 0 0 40.9

2018-19 0 0 0 0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0 0 0 20.5

Red = Ratters, under 10"

Blue = Good winters, 40+ers

 

You've been spoiled, we all have, in the 2000s.

So far 19-20 is at 4.8" for NYC which is already well ahead of 3.5" they got from 01-02, which was one single event every other day and month was only T.

Wow did not realize NYC did so poorly in 2008 2009 (actually average). Not too far away here in SW CT we were over 40 and had snow coverage for months.

Of course NEMO was the difference in 2013.

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47 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

besides the neurotic tri-staters and usual suspects who would probably complain about winning the lottery, most seem to be handling this winter in stride

40 felt like 50 today, azure blue sky, no wind, sun high....last months gas bill was $82. Want snow? Go to Utah or Western Canada!

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8 hours ago, The Graupler said:

Hopefully we get no snow this weekend.  But I’m not ready to panic 

You're probably good the rest of the winter on not getting any snow, But you've probably wrestled with that idea, And have a good hold on that it may be the case.

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It’s just snow.   In the scheme of things it ain’t no big deal

We’re passionate about it (it’s why majority spend time tracking and posting) but yea, agree...nbd. I mean, anyone who has a hobby I’d hope would be very passionate for it. Otherwise, why are you doing it...just to pass time? 

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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We hope for big snows but with each passing day this season’s grade sinks lower. 

I did appreciate the 9F low with snow cover the other day. That was nice.

I thought this season would feature several big events but not a pack season with warm stretches and cutters. It’s all just an educated guess for me but 40/70 and Raindance have done well with tons of research...and they both think big coastals are likely ahead. Whether or not it produces for everyone, not likely. But if we get 2/3 good ones, even if I miss out...it was still   a solid seasonal forecast. 

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7 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’re passionate about it (it’s why majority spend time tracking and posting) but yea, agree...nbd. I mean, anyone who has a hobby I’d hope would be very passionate for it. Otherwise, why are you doing it...just to pass time? 

We have no control over it.  I was responding to BIrving’s post about how people are handling it.  I love snow.  I get out and enjoy it as much as I can plus it affects my work.  But am I going to spazz because I didn’t get this amount or that storm?   Nope.    

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6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Feb 1978 occurred in a WInter of crap.  Just sayin'

I dunno if I'd call that winter crap. BOS had a 21 inch storm in January 1978. 

Id say a more hopeful analog might be something like '68-'69 or '12-'13. Both went into February with really paltry snowfall totals in BOS and coastal areas but both seasons are remembered fondly...multiple blockbuster events occurred after that (Feb '13/Mar '13 and the Lindsay Storm and Feb 24-28, 1969)....both had the NAO going favorable though. Would be nice to see that happen this year too. 

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