Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Here is another view of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 201 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 PAZ035-036-056-057-059-063>066-072015- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0001.200107T1700Z-200108T0000Z/ Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- Including the cities of McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 201 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one to three inches. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From noon today to 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Steadiest snow and greatest travel impacts expected this afternoon, with up to one inch per hour snowfall rates possible between 1 pm and 6 pm. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on driving conditions as winter weather impacts will include snow covered roads and limited visibility. Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp. && $$ DEVOIR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 Overnight models have bumped back north with precip, getting a good majority of the subforum into snow today.. even up to IPT. Here's one of the 6z NAM snowmaps. It may be one of those positive snow depth algorithms. The Cobb method, which I believe is the one that incorporates the actual snow growth region with it's ratio calculation has a stripe of 6"+ running the mason-dixon line. That's an indication that aloft, the column is cold enough to support better than 10:1. The ground truth will probably be tempered a bit though with initially marginal surface temps. A quick snowfall but if we get some fairly robust rates I wouldn't be surprised to see 3 or 4 inches in spots along the southern tier. Here's to some + snow before the mess and warm weather at the end of the week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Overnight models have bumped back north with precip, getting a good majority of the subforum into snow today.. even up to IPT. Here's one of the 6z NAM snowmaps. It may be one of those positive snow depth algorithms. The Cobb method, which I believe is the one that incorporates the actual snow growth region with it's ratio calculation has a stripe of 6"+ running the mason-dixon line. That's an indication that aloft, the column is cold enough to support better than 10:1. The ground truth will probably be tempered a bit though with initially marginal surface temps. A quick snowfall but if we get some fairly robust rates I wouldn't be surprised to see 3 or 4 inches in spots along the southern tier. Here's to some + snow before the mess and warm weather at the end of the week. Timing looks pretty rough for the evening rush down this way. That, and some 1-2" -1"/hour rates could make this an event with some impact. Also, it's in and out in just a few hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Timing looks pretty rough for the evening rush down this way. That, and some 1-2" -1"/hour rates could make this an event with some impact. Also, it's in and out in just a few hours... i was just telling a co-worker the timing for this sucks, as we have to deal with the farmshow traffic already, now add the "first snow" of the season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 43 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Timing looks pretty rough for the evening rush down this way. That, and some 1-2" -1"/hour rates could make this an event with some impact. Also, it's in and out in just a few hours... I’m looking forward to possibly my best snow event of the season. All that I need to get there is to top a “heavy coating” ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m looking forward to possibly my best snow event of the season. All that I need to get there is to top a “heavy coating” ! 2 things to watch out for: How warm does it get today? (and how much sun we get before it becomes overcast will dictate that) What kind of rates will we get? (in early January, if we can get some decent rates we should overcome any warmth rather quickly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: 2 things to watch out for: How warm does it get today? (and how much sun we get before it becomes overcast will dictate that) What kind of rates will we get? (in early January, if we can get some decent rates we should overcome any warmth rather quickly) Good points. The timing should help with the bulk of the decent precip arriving in late afternoon to early evening. Also, dew points are in the low 20’s, so even though surface temps might be above freezing, they should wetbulb down nicely when decent precip arrives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Here are the 6z NAMs & GFS. I would like to sign up for the 3k NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 The 6z Euro is still on board! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Glad I'm taking some extra time off from work as I contemplate my next move with regard to my mother's slowly failing health in AZ. I would have come totally unglued if I had to deal with snow the first few days back from the long holiday break, in which the weather was mild and benign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 To my southern brothers, enjoy your snow!! Been a tough winter for you. Thanks to everyone for keeping us updated on the model runs and snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 8 hours ago, MAG5035 said: I'll get on the GFS and HuRRR train, as that model's been pretty well north with the precip as well since we've gotten into HRRR range. Otherwise this system's getting just close enough for me to see someone like Cashtown probably double up my 3" on season totals to date. Yeah I’m just glad to see the consensus showing up. I’m not sure if I cracked 3” yet. beggars we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: 2 things to watch out for: How warm does it get today? (and how much sun we get before it becomes overcast will dictate that) What kind of rates will we get? (in early January, if we can get some decent rates we should overcome any warmth rather quickly) Not worried about the warmth. DP's are low and while we may "lose" a bit of snow early on while column cools, your second bullet should "fix" that. Waaayyy down here in the LSV we MIGHT get a little bit of white rain, but I'd think it very minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Not worried about the warmth. DP's are low and while we may "lose" a bit of snow early on while column cools, your second bullet should "fix" that. Waaayyy down here in the LSV we MIGHT get a little bit of white rain, but I'd think it very minimal. Agreed, assuming that the rates are in fact legit. Some of the cams in VA are pretty impressive... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 If rates are good, we might be set up for a nasty commute. I'm just crossing fingers this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, canderson said: If rates are good, we might be set up for a nasty commute. I'm just crossing fingers this happens. Based on model consensus, I think slippy PM commute is a given. At T-6 hours to onset, I'm not sure enough can go wrong for a true miss for much of CTP/LSV. I wouldnt be suprisded to see nooners tick a bit S (based on years of model watching), but that still keeps most in the game (except maybe IPT). Thats just a hunch though. One of the nice things about this storm, is that its evolution has been similar to what we are traditionally used to, as it crept back to us inside 72hrs...which happens quite frequently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 17 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Based on model consensus, I think slippy PM commute is a given. At T-6 hours to onset, I'm not sure enough can go wrong for a true miss for much of CTP/LSV. I wouldnt be suprisded to see nooners tick a bit S (based on years of model watching), but that still keeps most in the game (except maybe IPT). Thats just a hunch though. One of the nice things about this storm, is that its evolution has been similar to what we are traditionally used to, as it crept back to us inside 72hrs...which happens quite frequently. Now let's hope the end of January brings about positive news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 24 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Based on model consensus, I think slippy PM commute is a given. At T-6 hours to onset, I'm not sure enough can go wrong for a true miss for much of CTP/LSV. I wouldnt be suprisded to see nooners tick a bit S (based on years of model watching), but that still keeps most in the game (except maybe IPT). Thats just a hunch though. One of the nice things about this storm, is that its evolution has been similar to what we are traditionally used to, as it crept back to us inside 72hrs...which happens quite frequently. 1-2PM start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 28 minutes ago, sauss06 said: 1-2PM start time? yessir 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 35 minutes ago, canderson said: Now let's hope the end of January brings about positive news! as i posted yesterday, ENS guidance it starting to open doors for the way out of this crappy regime. Still concerned about a few things, but seeing the Aleutian and Scandy ridging changes gives hope that a new regime will be coming once we get beyond 10 days. Still a long ways out, so caution is definitely warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Popped in to see how things were going...surface temps seem a tad warm right now and DP's are already in the mid 20's but like the latest GFS depiction of really putting the LSV just on the other side of the R/S line making it jackpot town. It's where you want to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 If one looks over nooners so far, the guy who really needs to worry about getting jipped...... is me. based on LP evolution best forcing shows cashtown taking all the marbles again, and then Lanco snow dome goes into full effect. Nam's and GFS see this. Could just be noise, but....it has my attention. I think most here are going to enjoy a nice interlude between the episodes of ugliness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: Based on model consensus, I think slippy PM commute is a given. At T-6 hours to onset, I'm not sure enough can go wrong for a true miss for much of CTP/LSV. I wouldnt be suprisded to see nooners tick a bit S (based on years of model watching), but that still keeps most in the game (except maybe IPT). Thats just a hunch though. One of the nice things about this storm, is that its evolution has been similar to what we are traditionally used to, as it crept back to us inside 72hrs...which happens quite frequently. Have fun bud, we'll live without this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Have fun bud, we'll live without this one. Unfortunately this one "wasn't for you". Dont worry, I live on the other side of that, so i know all too well how that feels. Maybe next one likes you more. Say what you will, but I'd trade places with you in a heartbeat. I LOVE Lyco and would live there in a heartbeat. Ever since college it had me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: Unfortunately this one "wasn't for you". Dont worry, I live on the other side of that, so i know all too well how that feels. Maybe next one likes you more. Say what you will, but I'd trade places with you in a heartbeat. I LOVE Lyco and would live there in a heartbeat. Ever since college it had me. It's a very pretty place with lots of good hiking once outside of Williamsport...def agree. Have a feeling this one may surprise you guys in a good way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 37 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Popped in to see how things were going...surface temps seem a tad warm right now and DP's are already in the mid 20's but like the latest GFS depiction of really putting the LSV just on the other side of the R/S line making it jackpot town. It's where you want to be. I’m over your way at the eye doctor. Nothing yet but radar looks great. 35/24 back at house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I’m over your way at the eye doctor. Nothing yet but radar looks great. 35/24 back at house And I am in Florida. LOL. That band of heavy snow out near Cumberland looks to have Franklin and Adams in its sights. Our areas look great if the qpf gets into them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Bubbler86 said: And I am in Florida. LOL. That band of heavy snow out near Cumberland looks to have Franklin and Adams in its sights. Our areas look great if the qpf gets into them. I’ll post pics for you lol. 2-3” seems obtainable for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: I’ll post pics for you lol. 2-3” seems obtainable for our area I bet we see some 4-6" totals near by if not over some...especially the ridges just south into Maryland. near Emmittsburg and such. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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