Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

[MAG5035]

19 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

That is what is killing this thing and what I was referencing above wrt ridging.  Looking over AM runs, some have a little better ridging out ahead which give this thing a chance to climb a bit more.  Again, that's not a wish...its what I'm looking for based on what we are discussing about storms and their ability to climb north even as we get into the near term.  Like Blizz said, its happened countless times over the last few years.  That's my rub w/ those that have already called this DOA. Just based on our ability to fail, they are probably "correct" in their assessment, but IMO its really 36hrs away from calling the coroner.

 

edit - and for those in the NW....fine....call the coroner, but anyone here in the LSV that is calling this, is just hoping to get "lucky".   

Not sure if your lumping in the Mid-Atlantic folks but there hasn't been anyone in this subforum that has called this event DOA, including myself who's been pretty pessimistic on this storm threat the last couple days. I'm not going to sugarcoat a setup that doesn't look that ideal, but I'm also not ruling out seeing enough of a tug north to get something into the southern parts of the area. The northern branch wave progged behind the departing coastal may also deliver light snows, something I mentioned on Monday. The Euro has been a bit more amplified with that feature and the 0z threw a large swath of 1-2" across PA from that. 

[Itstrainingtime]

This is from CTP from this past weekend. Really illustrates the lack of cold this month. 20 of the first 25 days in January were AN. 

[Bubbler86]

11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is from CTP from this past weekend. Really illustrates the lack of cold this month. 20 of the first 25 days in January were AN. 

 

Dec had 21 days AN with an overall average of +2.3.   Its very easy to argue that our averages are skewed low at this point as seemingly every winter at least two of the months are AN normal. 

[MAG5035]

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is from CTP from this past weekend. Really illustrates the lack of cold this month. 20 of the first 25 days in January were AN. 

 

That's what something like this will get you. And that chart was just high temperatures too, I'd like to see what the low temperatures looked like.. especially during the warm spell.

 

[Bubbler86]

16 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Not sure if your lumping in the Mid-Atlantic folks but there hasn't been anyone in this subforum that has called this event DOA, including myself who's been pretty pessimistic on this storm threat the last couple days. I'm not going to sugarcoat a setup that doesn't look that ideal, but I'm also not ruling out seeing enough of a tug north to get something into the southern parts of the area. The northern branch wave progged behind the departing coastal may also deliver light snows, something I mentioned on Monday. The Euro has been a bit more amplified with that feature and the 0z threw a large swath of 1-2" across PA from that. 

That Nam is still going to insist on a period of snow during early hours of Saturday AM.   Both S Central/LSV in PA and the DelMarva.  DelMarva is due to rates. 

[Voyager]

12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is from CTP from this past weekend. Really illustrates the lack of cold this month. 20 of the first 25 days in January were AN. 

Well, I guess it might be a bit torchy down there, but up here it doesn't feel like it. It's obvious by the lack of snow cover and frozen ground that we've been above normal, but it just didn't like it was that much above.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Well, I guess it might be a bit torchy down there, but up here it doesn't feel like it. It's obvious by the lack of snow cover and frozen ground that we've been above normal, but it just didn't like it was that much above.

One tell tale sign I have seen that I feel is fairly rare but not unheard of...there is not one area of frozen water anywhere in the parts of PA I travel.   Not even in the Upper Elevation State Parks across S Central PA.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Well, I guess it might be a bit torchy down there, but up here it doesn't feel like it. It's obvious by the lack of snow cover and frozen ground that we've been above normal, but it just didn't like it was that much above.

Keep in mind that at least some of that in part is due to a lack of "normal fluctuations" between our daily high/low. (Instead of having a "normal" split of say 37/20, we've had our share of days at 42/36 for example) Bottom line...we've had a few very warm days but we've also had MANY well above normal low temps. 

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Not sure if your lumping in the Mid-Atlantic folks but there hasn't been anyone in this subforum that has called this event DOA, including myself who's been pretty pessimistic on this storm threat the last couple days. I'm not going to sugarcoat a setup that doesn't look that ideal, but I'm also not ruling out seeing enough of a tug north to get something into the southern parts of the area. The northern branch wave progged behind the departing coastal may also deliver light snows, something I mentioned on Monday. The Euro has been a bit more amplified with that feature and the 0z threw a large swath of 1-2" across PA from that. 

I know your not...you know better.  If you look over some of yesterdays stuff...there are a few that are right on the ledge, or sound like they already jumped.

I'd hope you don't sugarcoat....that's why your good at what you do and why its great having you in here.  My frustration is wrt the negativity when a run or two that are 4 -5 days ahead of an event doesn't show something good or what we want.  ANYONE that has been around long enough knows that its way too early to talk in definitive tones about this weekend....let alone beyond.  While this weekends look has diminished over the last 36 hrs,  this has happened many times (as Blizz and i alluded to).

If one looks at last nights 0z GFS OP, you'd see the shift that I've been trying to hammer home.  Yeah it wasn't much, but while there was no convo about it, it shows what a small shift 4 days out can still do for parts of our crew.  I've never thought this one was for the entire forum, but SE 1/2 of Pa most definitely could be in play. 

I go to MA to do what I love....discuss weather patterns and sniff out opps.  They have 10x the interest in doing that, but they also have 30x the whiners.  For me, I cant stand the whining when someone doesnt at least offer up some reasoning.  If that's my shortcoming, then fine....my bad.  H2O/mappy/psu/chill/cape/frd are just a few that keep it interesting/real/fun.  They too were frustrated yesterday and calling out the normal complainers and were asking for them to take it to banter....I'll just leave it at that.

Its been tough and frustrating for everyone....me included.

And if anyone thinks I'm nothing but rainbows n unicorns....I've looked at the tellies overnight and yeah...I'm nervous as they took are looking less favorable once again.  

 

[MAG5035]

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

One tell tale sign I have seen that I feel is fairly rare but not unheard of...there is not one area of frozen water anywhere in the parts of PA I travel.   Not even in the Upper Elevation State Parks across S Central PA.

The Great Lakes are pretty much wide open too. Ice coverage is at a measly 5.6%, which isn't completely unheard of this time of the year but certainly a strong indicator that this winter has had a lack of any sustained cold in the Eastern US and Great Lakes Region. If we do eventually see an actual dead of winter grade cold shot sometime next month there is going to be some major lake snows for folks underneath the favored flow off the lakes. 

[pasnownut]

38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is from CTP from this past weekend. Really illustrates the lack of cold this month. 20 of the first 25 days in January were AN. 

thats just ugly....no sugarcoating that one.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The Great Lakes are pretty much wide open too. Ice coverage is at a measly 5.6%, which isn't completely unheard of this time of the year but certainly a strong indicator that this winter has had a lack of any sustained cold in the Eastern US and Great Lakes Region. If we do eventually see an actual dead of winter grade cold shot sometime next month there is going to be some major lake snows for folks underneath the favored flow off the lakes. 

Yea, that's another good point.  I have not seen photo one out of Buffalo showing them dealing with several feet of fake snow.   I keep thinking winter will eventually lock in for a period and they are indeed going to face a late wrath.  

[canderson]

43 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is from CTP from this past weekend. Really illustrates the lack of cold this month. 20 of the first 25 days in January were AN. 

This chart makes my blood boil. 

The Susky had some ice chunks late last week for a day and half, nothing even close to solid or anything and that's been it.

[canderson]

I'm poor with exact timing for systems - can anyone tell me when precip will hit/exit Saturday for both the greater DC area and again the LSV? My guess it's rain but regardless of precip type. Thank you!

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

I'm poor with exact timing for systems - can anyone tell me when precip will hit/exit Saturday for both the greater DC area and again the LSV? My guess it's rain but regardless of precip type. Thank you!

Most models have no precip in the LSV and the precip in DC is gone Sat Am (after starting post 7PM Friday)  near day break though the whole upper level low bringing showers thing later Sat into Sunday is still in play. 

[Bubbler86]

19 minutes ago, canderson said:

I'm poor with exact timing for systems - can anyone tell me when precip will hit/exit Saturday for both the greater DC area and again the LSV? My guess it's rain but regardless of precip type. Thank you!

To add to this since the GFS was just coming out it shows light rain from around midnightish until somewhere between 5-7AM and then out of DC.  Pretty much nothing north of the DC proper through Sat daylight hours. 

[pasnownut]

say what you will..........

NS diving in a bit??  Too late?? Go look at last couple runs and it wasn't there.  

[Bubbler86]

13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

say what you will..........

NS diving in a bit??  Too late?? Go look at last couple runs and it wasn't there.  

 

That NS wave appears to set off quite a bit of precip in the western 2/3 of PA during Saturday night now...on the GFS and I think last nights Euro.  Most shows as rain on GFS but that is subject to change. 

[Porsche]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is from CTP from this past weekend. Really illustrates the lack of cold this month. 20 of the first 25 days in January were AN. 

Can you direct me to a link for that image?  That's something else!

Thanks

[canderson]

18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

To add to this since the GFS was just coming out it shows light rain from around midnightish until somewhere between 5-7AM and then out of DC.  Pretty much nothing north of the DC proper through Sat daylight hours. 

Thank you! Rain would really f up my weekend so I'm rooting for this. I'd rather it snow than rain. 

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

One tell tale sign I have seen that I feel is fairly rare but not unheard of...there is not one area of frozen water anywhere in the parts of PA I travel.   Not even in the Upper Elevation State Parks across S Central PA.

We have some ice on our smaller ponds and lakes up here, but nothing I'd dare to step foot on, that's for sure...

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

Thank you! Rain would really f up my weekend so I'm rooting for this. I'd rather it snow than rain. 

Hard to see DC getting snow at this point...at least with the coastal.  Would need to be a huge change in the timing of the waves.

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Porsche said:

Can you direct me to a link for that image?  That's something else!

Thanks

I'm virtually tech illiterate.  I found it in seconds by Googling "NWS  State College Twitter" and scrolled down their twitter feed a bit until I found it. That's the best that I can do! (and I hope that helps!) 

[Porsche]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm virtually tech illiterate.  I found it in seconds by Googling "NWS  State College Twitter" and scrolled down their twitter feed a bit until I found it. That's the best that I can do! (and I hope that helps!) 

LOL thanks I was going to NWS State College site and trying to find it there and that was a painful search.  I'll go to twiiter.

[pasnownut]

13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That NS wave appears to set off quite a bit of precip in the western 2/3 of PA during Saturday night now...on the GFS and I think last nights Euro.  Most shows as rain on GFS but that is subject to change. 

I may be overreaching, but as it has just appeared on nooner guidance, IF it were to drop in a bit sooner, it COULD help to tug this thing a bit further west.  

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I may be overreaching, but as it has just appeared on nooner guidance, IF it were to drop in a bit sooner, it COULD help to tug this thing a bit further west.  

No doubt.  I am just not saying much on that as when there is no guidance showing it we are talking Jan 25, 2001 type errors with the models and it is so rare they are that wrong. We are now within 60 hours of the event. 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Porsche said:

LOL thanks I was going to NWS State College site and trying to find it there and that was a painful search.  I'll go to twiiter.

This has some good stuff on it.

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/climateRecordsHarrisburg

[Bubbler86]

Something I have not seen mention of but have seen it modeled twice now...seeing it in the latest Canadian...is that the southern wave we have been so focused on is so far away from our area by the time the Northern Wave gets near that there is actually some coastal development from a transfer Saturday night which kicks precip back over us.  I believe Mag touched on this today but thought he was more commenting on the UL/Northern Wave passing vs a transfer. 

 

 

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

No doubt.  I am just not saying much on that as when there is no guidance showing it we are talking Jan 25, 2001 type errors with the models and it is so rare they are that wrong. We are now within 60 hours of the event. 

I only share because now guidance is getting a bit better look at players as they come onto the field, and we can hone in a bit more on Op's over Ens guidance.  

Just an observation.....

[daxx]

22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That NS wave appears to set off quite a bit of precip in the western 2/3 of PA during Saturday night now...on the GFS and I think last nights Euro.  Most shows as rain on GFS but that is subject to change. 

I think that piece of energy is our best shot at seeing something wintry this weekend. Mags area would probably benefit the most, but i will take what ever it gives us. Hopefully its still there or improves in future runs.