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Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020


MAG5035
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50 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yes, the "relaxation" has been showing up for several days now.  I suggested the other day that it was looking likely on most ens guidance, but that relax, brings the cold WAY south (likely coldest the SE has seen this year IMO), and beyond seems to be the time that opens the window for a decent run at winter.  For how long....I dont know, but tellies are in support of something less transient and more sustained.

 

I knew a warm up was coming next week (Next week is my Florida week...may be colder there than here.  It was one night last time). but did not know mid to upper 60's was on the docket.  Was not following it that closely but we hit 69 at MDT and it adds another notch into the belt of the 69 and over days discussion we had a few weeks ago.  Fairly rare.

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I knew a warm up was coming next week (Next week is my Florida week...may be colder there than here.  It was one night last time). but did not know mid to upper 60's was on the docket.  Was not following it that closely but we hit 69 at MDT and it adds another notch into the belt of the 69 and over days discussion we had a few weeks ago.  Fairly rare.

Just for the sake of compare, the 18Z has the temp around 50, on Wed, where the 12Z Euro is 67 (my place) due to timing differences in the front.  Makes the difference between a normal warm day and a once  or twice a decade type day. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, pasnownut said:

I'm gonna sleep on it......

G night

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_19.png

So, after looking over the 0z runs tonight, we need to root for the GFS & UKMET.

The 0z  Canadian & Euro were wide right.

The UKMET has the coastal on a similar track as the GFS, but the low is stronger to our south & further deepens to the northeast.

I would sign up for the GFS right now.

 

66BFC47B-2C62-4F3C-8E17-63FECDABD60E.png

F2D1BFB8-4E07-4FF1-8E3B-F705701B3556.png

E05A0B4C-135E-4F8B-A3F6-9EE5A06BAE48.png

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10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS & 6z ICON storm still keep the chance of some snow from the coastal on Saturday for us.

 

 

7BFED903-F196-4F57-81DC-E1C76F037C58.png

That icon depiction would pressure the NWS for Warnings.  Probably 4-8" on the grass.  Canderson I am guessing it will be not too bad on the roads either way.  There is no cold air so at the worst it will be near freezing.

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10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'll tell ya this....if the 6z Goofus has any merit to what its showing, I'm gonna be happier than a clam.  That was one of the snowiest runs i've seen in a long time.

Train of opportunities....and a doozy right in the middle 2/7 weekend. 

That seems to be time when the players are progged to be aligned for our best opportunity. I'm genuinely interested in the period beginning in about 10 days.

Yeah...I know. 

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15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'll tell ya this....if the 6z Goofus has any merit to what its showing, I'm gonna be happier than a clam.  That was one of the snowiest runs i've seen in a long time.

Train of opportunities....and a doozy right in the middle 2/7 weekend. 

You need to push that doozy back a day or two so I can get home...its actually Thursday night and Friday on the GFS.   

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That seems to be time when the players are progged to be aligned for our best opportunity. I'm genuinely interested in the period beginning in about 10 days.

Yeah...I know. 

You know what??

Your tired of chasing 10 day Unicorns??

:lol:

I'm not even looking much beyond until we get into next week, as I think that as long as we enter this new pattern thats been advertised coupled w/ our back weighted winters, that we may be seeing a decent window open.  Sure hope so.

 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, that's the one.  Snow starts probably 2-3 AM Friday Morning.  Mostly joking about the timing but like Canderson I get a bit tired of fighting snow during travel.  LOL.   

well then you all should be rather rested this year.....

just sayin......^_^

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Well the first step to any snowy pattern is getting the daily 6z GFS ice age run. 

now we just need a happy hour shellackin before it all goes down the sh!tter

Mindy you I'm not honkin any crazy snow horns....I'm just happy to see legit threat windows and storms within....thats all

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

You would think but twice I have flown in to seemingly tough situations including last weekend....got lucky and that finger of snow never made it to Baltimore. 

i too have flown in snow, but unless its a doozy, its of no worry and has had no effect whatsoever....guess i'm just lucky.

 

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i too have flown in snow, but unless its a doozy, its of no worry and has had no effect whatsoever....guess i'm just lucky.
 

Big airports cancel flights before the events.

During that March 2017 storm, I had a flight from BWI to Tampa cancelled. They ended up with little, if any snow.

MDT had close to 20” of snow and I ended up taking a flight from there to Florida. No flights cancelled.


.
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Just now, Superstorm said:


Big airports cancel flights before the events.

During that March 2017 storm, I had a flight from BWI to Tampa cancelled. They ended up with little, if any snow.

MDT had close to 20” of snow and I ended up taking a flight from there to Florida. No flights cancelled.


.

Yea, the airlines themselves will not fly planes into airports where they expect snow...sometimes 12 hours ahead of schedule.  Southwest is terrible about that.  

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