Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

[sauss06]

39 minutes ago, canderson said:

New puppy already making himself at home?

I've written notes on snow storms back to the big storm in 83. i would document snowfall totals. the only other thing i note besides snow is if we break a record on temp, high/low and any other unusual. lost everything before 2002 i think. other then my 1999 day planner with snow weather notes.

 

edit- speaking of notes, we were talking about Miller b's the other day. I went back to my notes. 1 notable Miller B Was February 16th-17th 2003. We had 32" between those 2 days then 4" more on the 18th. i think maybe it was Mag that picked out that date in the discussion. 

[Bubbler86]

Looking at the 18z Nam I just noticed it briefly identifies a slp in the Gulf before the cutter takes over a few panels later.  Oh to be back on the days where Gulf lows were a normal thing.

Gfs is driving the surface low over Lancaster now.  Sheesh.

[Blizzard of 93]

Well, this weekend’s storm took a turn for the worse over the last day or 2....

But, it looks like we might have another chance Next weekend.

One of these chances should work out if we keep getting opportunities.

[canderson]

The models really have been poor with this upcoming system. Regardless of what the result is.

[Voyager]

I'm getting tired of weekend threats. We need one on a weekday...

[Superstorm]

I'm getting tired of weekend threats. We need one on a weekday...

EE Rule


.

[Blizzard of 93]

Great discussion in here earlier today about snow totals over the decades.

Here is a good chart from CTP that shows the snow totals since 1980 at Harrisburg, along with the average & median at the far right part of the chart.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

I honestly don't know what to think about the next 6-8 weeks. I'm equally expecting 2" as I am 30". All we can ask for right now are chances...

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I honestly don't know what to think about the next 6-8 weeks. I'm equally expecting 2" as I am 30". All we can ask for right now are chances...

I agree with you, all that we can ask for are chances for snow.

I would almost rather have this with chances at moisture laden storms that might or might not give us snow, instead of weeks of extreme cold with dry frigid temps with occasional snow showers & Clippers.

The next 2 weeks should present a few opportunities. 

I like the general concept late next week of 2 storms quickly following each other. If the first system doesn’t produce snow, then at least it can set the boundary for the next storm that could possibly come up the coast 2 days later.

[Santa Clause]

Decent amount of rain this weekend 

[Jns2183]

I wrote this up while in the waiting room of the ER this evening so please forgive any small errors in calculation or typos but I think I got it right for the most part. The winter of 1960-1961 was truly insane in scope. An outlier in so many ways. Let me compare it to another insane outlier to give it a reference. From the start of records in 1889 through 2010 the greatest yearly precipitation total recorded was in 1972 of 59.27”. 2011 comes along and absolutely obliterates that record recorded 73.73”, 24.4% greater then 1972. Up until that winter the snowiest winter recorded was 1917-1918 55.3” (by the way, that winter now ranks #10. The 1960’s have #1 & #4, 1970’s have #5 & #6, 1980’s have #7, 1990’s have #2 & #3, the 2000’s have #8 & #9). The winter of 1960-1961 comes along with 81.7”, 47.7% greater then the previous record. So Think back to 2011 and imagine that instead of 73.73” of rain we got 87.57”.

Also image 28 days straight of 10” of snow on the ground and a winter of 32 snow events > a trace. Below is an outline of that crazy winter. Enjoy.

Winter of 1960-1961 (70 days of bliss)
Month (Total Events, # of T, # >T, Total Amt “)
October (1,0,0,0”)
November (0,0,0,0”)
December (11,4,7,22.1”)
January (15,6,9,34”)
February (11,4,7,18.7”
March (9,3,6,4”)
April (4,1,3,2.5”)

Season 10/24/1960 - 4/18/1961 (176 days)
Total events 52
Trace events 20
> Trace Events 32
Total snow 81.7”

First trace of snow was recorded 10/24/1960. Another trace would not be recorded for 38 days, on 12/1/1960; while first snowfall greater then a trace wouldn’t happen for another 48 days.

Average was At least a trace of snow every 3.38 days

> Trace 5.5 days



From 12/11/1960 - 4/18/1960 (128 days)
Total events 49
Trace events 17
> Trace Events 32
Total snow 81.7” (2.55” per >T event)

Average was At least a trace of snow every 2.61 days

> Trace 4 days



December - February (90 days of madness)
Total Events: 35 (2.57 days)
Trace Events: 14
> Trace Events 21 (4.28 days)
Total snowfall 74.8” (3.51” per >T event)

DECEMBER
Since they measure snow depth 1st day of snow on the ground was recorded on 12/12/1960 - 9” (how 9”? The storm on 12/11 - 12/12 dropped 6.9” on 12/11 and 4.1” on 12/12)
The average snow depth for the month was 4.5”, but remember the first 11 days there was no snow on the ground so the first time there was measurable snow on the ground to the end of December the average snow depth was 6.98” with a max of 11” on 12/21 and a min of 4” on 12/17-12/20 (it snowed twice totaling 1.6” during that 4 day stretch)

Temperature (Actual, Avg, departure)
Max (35.8, 41.3, -5.5)
Min (15.4, 26.6, -11.2)
Avg (25.6, 33.9, -8.3)

Snowfall (22.1”, 5.1”)


JANUARY

Snow was on the ground for every day in January, with a trace being recorded only 1 day. Later that same day they would receive 7.2” of snow. The average snow depth for the month was 7.2” with the max of 20” on 1/20/1961 and a min of a T on 1/15/1961. From 1/15/1961 to 1/20/1961 it snowed on 4/6 days for 26.2”.

Temperature (Actual, Avg, departure)
Max (33.3, 37, -3.7)
Min (16.8, 22.8, - 6)
Avg (25.1, 29.9, -4.8)

Snowfall (34.0”, 8.8”)
Precipitation (3.46”, 2.88”)
There was recorded precipitation greater than a trace on 9 days. On every single one of those 9 days measurable snowfall was recorded. Now it wasn’t totally perfect on New Year’s Day the temperature spiked to 41 and we received 0.86” of precipitation, only 0.8” was snow; but still technically 9/9 in chances.

FEBRUARY
The max snow depth was recorded on 2/4 of 20”. 6.1” and 6.3” had fallen on 2/3 and 2/4. The average snow depth for the month was a staggering 8.7”

On 2/20/1961 only a T was recorded on the ground. For 34 consecutive days >T of snow was recorded on the ground. 2/27/1961 brought the first day since the morning of 12/11/1960 that 0” was recorded on the ground. 70 consecutive days of bliss. During that 70 days of magic (12/12/1960 - 2/19/1960) the average snowfall on the ground was 6.89”.

From 1/15/1961 till 2/12/1961 was 29 days of pure snow insanity. It snowed 13 days and 49.4”. From 1/15/1961 till 2/4/1961, 21 days, it snowed 14 days, >T 10 days for 44.2”.
From 1/19/1961 - 2/4/1961, 17 days it snowed at least a trace on 12 days, >T on 8 days for 37.2” (4.65” per event). Average seasonal snowfall then was 30.6”.

FROM 1/19/1961 through 2/15/1961 (28 days) MDT recorded at least 10” on the ground with an average of 13.3” and a max of 20” on 1/20/1961 & 2/4/1961. On 1/19/1961 a max of 33 was recorded. The temperature would not get above freezing again until 2/4/1961 when a max of 36 was recorded. 15 days in between.

Days with >10” on ground
December 1
January 12
February 15
Total 28

Days with >6” on ground
December 14
January 17
February 18
Total 49

Temperature (Actual, Avg, departure)
Max (41.3, 40.7, 0.6)
Min (25.8, 25.1, 0.7)
Avg (33.6, 32.9, 0.7)

Snowfall (18.7”, 10.5”)
Precipitation (3.07”, 2.39”)

0.1”- 2”: 12, 7.8”
2”-4”: 1, 2.4”
4”-6”: 3, 14.4”
6”-8”: 5, 33.3”
8”-10”: 0,0”
10”-12”: 0,0”
12”+: 1, 13.1”


SEASON
0.1”- 2”: 21, 14.3”
2”-4”: 1, 2.4”
4”-6”: 3, 14.4”
6”-8”: 5, 33.3”
8”-10”: 0,0”
10”-12”: 0,0”
12”+: 1, 13.1”





. Pro

[Jns2183]

To add to that post, in the preceding 40 years MDT had only broken 40” 6 times, 50” 2 times, and not once over 51”. In the 40 years after MDT broke 40” 12 times 50” 8 times, 60” 5 times and 70” 4 times. I have a strong feeling when people talk about all the snow we “used “ to get they remember the winters of 1960-1961 through the winter of 1969-1970. That is easily the most insane 10 year stretch in all of the recorded weather data for snowfall at KMDT

1960 81.3”
1961. 51.6”
1962 50.5”
1963. 74.7”
1964 31.8”
1965 42.6”
1966 48.4”
1967 31.0”
1968 25.0”
1969 60.6”

If you take the average seasonal snowfall to be 30.6” then 9/10 years were above normal. 6/10 were 150%+ of normal and 3/10 were almost 200% or above of normal. Hell, that decade averaged 49.75”, 163% of normal. What’s remarkable is there aren’t a lot of storms on the top 10, even top 20 list from that decade to what we might expect given our winters of the last 20 years and there penchant to either go big storm or torch.


. Pro

[pawatch]

6 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

To add to that post, in the preceding 40 years MDT had only broken 40” 6 times, 50” 2 times, and not once over 51”. In the 40 years after MDT broke 40” 12 times 50” 8 times, 60” 5 times and 70” 4 times. I have a strong feeling when people talk about all the snow we “used “ to get they remember the winters of 1960-1961 through the winter of 1969-1970. That is easily the most insane 10 year stretch in all of the recorded weather data for snowfall at KMDT

1960 81.3”
1961. 51.6”
1962 50.5”
1963. 74.7”
1964 31.8”
1965 42.6”
1966 48.4”
1967 31.0”
1968 25.0”
1969 60.6”

If you take the average seasonal snowfall to be 30.6” then 9/10 years were above normal. 6/10 were 150%+ of normal and 3/10 were almost 200% or above of normal. Hell, that decade averaged 49.75”, 163% of normal. What’s remarkable is there aren’t a lot of storms on the top 10, even top 20 list from that decade to what we might expect given our winters of the last 20 years and there penchant to either go big storm or torch.


. Pro

Thanks for posting that! A nice read!

Hope your ok.

[sauss06]

Man that was some fantastic information. thanks @Jns2183

[WmsptWx]

I'm just going to say: If JNS was able to crank that out at the ER, then whatever was wrong (I will assume for the sake of the joke that JNS was the patient) could've waited, and another fine example of people using the emergency room as a primary care physician has been exhibited. That was a really, really good read. 

[Superstorm]

Everybody remembers winters to be worse when they were a kid. We tend to remember the big events. Those are memories we hold onto.

The older I get, the more I hear my generation say, “when we were young, winters were so much worse”. I was a kid in the 80s and those were some of the leanest years for snow.


.

[pawatch]

We have enough precipitation, Just no cold.

[sauss06]

4 minutes ago, pawatch said:

We have enough precipitation, Just no cold.

Heartbreaking isn't it 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Heartbreaking isn't it 

and with the frozen ground....YUK

 

[canderson]

Great, great stuff the past two on climo. Thanks for sharing, @Jns2183! Someone should start a MDT wiki page with seasonal totals and all - it'd be so much easier to track than the nonsensical way the NWS has to store data. 

[WmsptWx]

40 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

only I can travel to Hawley for a skit trip in January to a rain storm...should have just stayed on long island LOL...very disappointed, I will NOT be skiing

We're having a pool party in Harrisburg. Come do keg stands and have a go with Canderson's wife.

[CarlislePaWx]

Thank you, @Jns2183, so much for that incredible report!!  My memories of the 1960's begin in the mid 60's when I was around 6.  I will always remember the stories my father told me of the winter of '60-'61.  I was only 1, but he took a picture of me sitting on top of the biggest snow mound beside our driveway I've ever seen.  He also did tell me they had to dig tunnels to get around the back yard the snow was so deep.  (This was roughly 15 miles west of EWR.)  I remember how excited I was when a snow day would cancel school.  In our small town the fire department would blow the whistle 6 times at 7:00am and again at 7:30am to announce the closing.  Since the town was only 1 square mile everyone could hear the whistle.  How creative was that?

The one other noteworthy memory I have is from the summer of 1966.  I think that was one of the hottest summers of all time.  It was the end of 2nd grade for me in mid June of 1966.  I was 7.  It was so hot in our building that our teacher just shut off the lights and had us all lay our heads down on our desks and remain quiet.  What a combination of cold and heat during that decade.  The same could be said 11 years later in the summer of 1977 when in July Central Park broke it's all-time high temp record when it hit 106.  Then, remember what happened that following winter of '77-'78.  One of the biggest Miller-B's to strike the northeast that February.  Great memories for sure.  I'll be recalling them over this weekend during our cold rainstorm!

PS>>Hope you or your family member is OK!

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

We're having a pool party in Harrisburg. Come do keg stands and have a go with Canderson's wife.

Sounds like a plan!!! 

[Santa Clause]

What a weird storm lol.

[canderson]

29 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

What a weird storm lol.

Who doesn't love heavy rain on a January Friday night? 

[paweather5]

Can we bring her home boys. Let’s go all in  get it done. 

[Itstrainingtime]

954mb...mercy. 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

Can we bring her home boys. Let’s go all in  get it done. 

 

Great track but no cold air.  

[paweather5]

At that time frame it don’t look bad. 

[Itstrainingtime]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Great track but no cold air.  

With the 12z GFS track you would be plastered in paste. Maybe a bit tenuous for me, but no way that's mostly a rain storm for you. 

Right?