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Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020


MAG5035
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5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Wow 6z GFS was a flush hit for Central and eastern PA. The 0z Euro was there too, but was warmer aloft and much more marginal, especially in the LSV despite having a nice 850mb low track passing underneath PA. Focus of accumulating snow was in the central third of the state (Euro control similar). GFS 850mb low was a tad further north but had colder 850 air overall and it was enough to make it a primarily snow event for pretty much the whole subforum. 

Definitely an interesting setup. The 500mb pattern straight up is definitely doable, with a sprawling area of anomalously high heights residing over Canada and the storm track undercutting that. In a winter that has featured a stupid amount of cutting storms and a northern branch that has stayed well above PA for the most part (remember clippers?)... I guess that's a way to finally try to force one underneath us. The problem though is the cold air in place now gets moderated this week and the true arctic air is bottled up in it's region of origin courtesy of low heights over the pole (continued +AO) as well as the aforementioned Canadian ridging, which it's positioning is progged to cover a large portion of that country.. cutting off the source region for any fresh cold.

What is on our side with this setup is climo. That January 25ish timeframe is basically the bottom of the curve in terms of average temperatures for the year so we can definitely do marginal. Present this type of thing in late November/early December and it's probably raining for the most part. In late January with a progged track and evolution like the Euro/GFS, you would certainly have to favor snow in at least the central counties and potentially the LSV with a dynamic enough system. It's got to stay underneath us though, or transfer to the coast underneath us. Or else it's either going to rain and/or we're going to just barely miss out on a potentially sizable snowstorm like we did at the beginning of December. 

Appreciate this very much - easy to understand. Should be an interesting week ahead! 

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18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

What is on our side with this setup is climo. That January 25ish timeframe is basically the bottom of the curve in terms of average temperatures for the year so we can definitely do marginal. Present this type of thing in late November/early December and it's probably raining for the most part. In late January with a progged track and evolution like the Euro/GFS, you would certainly have to favor snow in at least the central counties and potentially the LSV with a dynamic enough system. It's got to stay underneath us though, or transfer to the coast underneath us. Or else it's either going to rain and/or we're going to just barely miss out on a potentially sizable snowstorm like we did at the beginning of December. 

I said that in the MA forum yesterday when we were seeing models start to show something worth tracking.  The next 4 weeks is about the easiest time for us to snow as climo is peak.  We dont need perfect/epic patterns....we need it cold enough (or close by) and ALWAYS have a better chance then they are coming from the south....not the west.

 

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18 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I said that in the MA forum yesterday when we were seeing models start to show something worth tracking.  The next 4 weeks is about the easiest time for us to snow as climo is peak.  We dont need perfect/epic patterns....we need it cold enough (or close by) and ALWAYS have a better chance then they are coming from the south....not the west.

 

Yep...could make the difference between a grey rainy day and a wet paste bomb. 

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28 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep...could make the difference between a grey rainy day and a wet paste bomb. 

as I'm picking pieces of the puzzle apart for "how we can make it snow", seeing a 4 contour closed LP on the 500's just W/SW of the 850 LP is surely something to keep an eye on.  IF they can pair up and vertically stack....we have a shot at this for sure.

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To me it looks like GFS is under doing precipitation which isn't a bad thing.

We are still in this Zonal flow with storms tracking west of us and usually not enough cold air in place = a sloppy mess.

Hopefully things change...

Mag thanks for taking the time to do that nice post!! 

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46 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6 z GEFS was its best run yet for this storm. It develops the low & moves it to a favorable location just off the DelMarVa!

 

Lock that up and there'll be much wailing and gnashing of teeth from my bus group that postponed their Hollywood Casino trip from this past weekend to this upcoming weekend. On the flip side though, they could be stubborn and defiant and say were going regardless of the weather.

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6 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Lock that up and there'll be much wailing and gnashing of teeth from my bus group that postponed their Hollywood Casino trip from this past weekend to this upcoming weekend. On the flip side though, they could be stubborn and defiant and say were going regardless of the weather.

"Going regardless" would be my guess.  They are gamblers, after all.

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Well well well....Looks the the ship better get patched up quickly.

Go look at the 12z Op (snow map too if you want to brighten your Monday mood a bit).

verbatim im fringed but 90% of you are getting a beatdown if this finds a way to hold (I know it likely wont, but for the next 6 hours I'm happy for y'all).

 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Well well well....Looks the the ship better get patched up quickly.

Go look at the 12z Op (snow map too if you want to brighten your Monday mood a bit).

verbatim im fringed but 90% of you are getting a beatdown if this finds a way to hold (I know it likely wont, but for the next 6 hours I'm happy for y'all).

 

It's a forum divider!  

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5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

actually its rather fitting as I'm probably the most SE of the forum, so its me all by myself.

edit - Me and Superstorm.

 

Yea I was just kidding as that seems to be a popular phrase this year.  Every storm is a forum divider in some aspect as if LSV gets hit big then Willliamsport is usually fringed.  

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Just now, pasnownut said:

@Blizzard of 93

In truth, the movement in the last 24 hours tells me were not done moving yet, but seeing this match more in line w/ the Euro raises BOTH eyebrows. :banned:

Exactly, plenty of time for hopefully small shifts, but if the Euro & GFS hold this look for another day or two, it might be game on!

Here is a close up of the GFS 

7CBCC92E-32E8-47A6-BED6-0B1E51B2A6C9.png

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea I was just kidding as that seems to be a popular phrase this year.  Every storm is a forum divider in some aspect as if LSV gets hit big then Willliamsport is usually fringed.  

Guys go look at 66 on both GFS and CMC.  Basically identical.  Thats a good sign IMO.

 

I say this in the veign of continuity.  They diverge a bit beyond, but we need to understand where things start before we know where they are headed.  And to that point, they seem to start off rather similarly.  Hope that makes sense.

 

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The storm as depicted above (which will likely move around, obviously) is much more representative of how storms played out in the 70s and 80s. Every mile you went west and north of Lancaster, the better. The past 20-25 years has really been an anomaly versus climate history where the coastal plain has outperformed the interior.

It's time that that places like UNV and IPT get hammered. They've been fringed so many times when I've been buried. 

Going to be a great week of tracking guys! 

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8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

at 108 CMC is vertically stacked.  Gotta run but I'm guessing its gonna be a good one in the next couple panels.

Sure hope so.

 

The Canadian Hopefully was just being the Canadian.

It develops the secondary in a nice spot in NC, but then moves it due north to the homeland of @Bubbler86 in south central PA. We need it to track to the coast. 

Let’s see what the Euro has to say later on.

9C9CCB98-6CCF-4F45-B342-2FF8A5BF5AA1.png

7869A35F-51A8-4617-9DDA-9343582FA2A8.png

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