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Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020


MAG5035
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The GFS finally joined the party today with having Tuesday's system, bringing the whole model suite into general agreement on the developing low from the Lower Mississippi Valley toward PA and then transferring to a coastal system. Question becomes if we hold enough cold at the low levels for a quick snow event. We will have some preceding cold for a change so I think a good part of our subforum area could see something snow wise from this with the Lower Sus Valley and southern tier being most in question for p-type at the moment. Like I mentioned the other day, it's still looking like something of the 2-5" variety at best with the northern tier and central counties having the best shot at possibly the higher end of that range. Still quite doable that LSV places like Harrisburg or even points south sees at least an inch or so. This is a window of opportunity in an ugly progressive pattern. Also keep in mind we haven't busted the MJO way out into Phase 5 yet either. I know it isn't much but there is at least a little winter potential to be talked about in our region.

It beats the alternative. I took a peak in the Panic Room earlier this afternoon and :yikes: lol. I know most of you read our subforum neighbors to the south and I think we're all quite aware we're in a relatively uh.. unfavorable pattern alignment heading onward into January. The very positive AO (as well as the NAO) is a big player right now.. that has to neutralize and/or reverse. Low heights and a strong polar vortex (progressive pattern) near the pole keeps arctic air bottled up and limits intrusions. At least the silver lining(s) of the MJO pulse forecast to go way into Phase 5 is that the tropical forcing and associated effects (major central Pac ridging) may eventually perturb the PV enough to get some changes up there.. maybe. Most models also appear to progress the pulse pretty rapidly as well in their MJO forecasts. But for now just a really ugly alignment that we're served up the first half of this month. 

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CTP is on board with our Tuesday snow chance.

This is from their discussion today:

Into the mid and long range period, there remains plenty of model spread and forecast uncertainty. However, a very busy pattern looks in store, with broad consensus that some phasing of northern and southern stream energy over the state late Tuesday or early Wednesday will support a gradually strengthening area of low pressure with the potential for a light to moderate snowfall/mixed precip event.

 

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the 6z Euro Control which goes out longer in time than the 6z Op Euro run. This shows the entire event for all of CTP & gets @pasnownut & @Bubbler86  into the decent snow...

 

 

Per usual it needs to stretch down to Central Florida to give me the white stuff next week :-).  There is always a snow chance when I go away. 

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34 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP is on board with our Tuesday snow chance.

This is from their discussion today:

Into the mid and long range period, there remains plenty of model spread and forecast uncertainty. However, a very busy pattern looks in store, with broad consensus that some phasing of northern and southern stream energy over the state late Tuesday or early Wednesday will support a gradually strengthening area of low pressure with the potential for a light to moderate snowfall/mixed precip event.

 

Don't really like the last sentence but it's a start in the right direction. 

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this period has been on the radar for a while and its good to see things trending better for us snow starved weenies.  Looking forward to next weeks wintery stretch.

Not going to discuss the ugliness beyond, as i know some lurking see it as well.  Scandinavian ridging has been showing up and now looks to be less than ideal, and we really need help in the AO/NAO space to dislodge lobes of the TPV and get them into the conus.  

Lets just focus on next week and see how long we need to shut the shades till we are back to trackin.  I'm REALLY not ready to talk about plants n crops blah blah blah (but hey if its happening, it is what it is).

 

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

this period has been on the radar for a while and its good to see things trending better for us snow starved weenies.  Looking forward to next weeks wintery stretch.

Not going to discuss the ugliness beyond, as i know some lurking see it as well.  Scandinavian ridging has been showing up and now looks to be less than ideal, and we really need help in the AO/NAO space to dislodge lobes of the TPV and get them into the conus.  

Lets just focus on next week and see how long we need to shut the shades till we are back to trackin.  I'm REALLY not ready to talk about plants n crops blah blah blah (but hey if its happening, it is what it is).

 

Well said...MUCH prefer to be going through anxious days and sleepless nights talking about white gold but that isn't the hand we're playing with. Yet.

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Well said...MUCH prefer to be going through anxious days and sleepless nights talking about white gold but that isn't the hand we're playing with. Yet.

We only might need to wait until Tuesday to get some white gold !

I’m going to try to ignore the long range until after Tuesday’s event...

The 12z Euro & especially the 12z Canadian put all of CTP in a good spot for a light to moderate snow event on Tuesday afternoon & evening.

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18z guidance is coming in low so far. GFS and NAM slide the Tues system south of the area with pretty much no precip into our region on the GFS and a bit into the LSV on the NAM. NAM is colder and has a solid snow event in the DC/Northern MD/NOVA region and a bit of snowfall into the LSV but not a lot. That would figure lol. DC would have more snowfall on the season than me if that came to fruition. Anyways will have to see if this more progressive turn holds water in ensuing model runs. 

Also, I was laughing about @canderson still pulling weeds a few days ago and find today that my magnolia tree in the yard has a bunch of buds on it haha. 

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31 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

18z guidance is coming in low so far. GFS and NAM slide the Tues system south of the area with pretty much no precip into our region on the GFS and a bit into the LSV on the NAM. NAM is colder and has a solid snow event in the DC/Northern MD/NOVA region and a bit of snowfall into the LSV but not a lot. That would figure lol. DC would have more snowfall on the season than me if that came to fruition. Anyways will have to see if this more progressive turn holds water in ensuing model runs. 

Also, I was laughing about @canderson still pulling weeds a few days ago and find today that my magnolia tree in the yard has a bunch of buds on it haha. 

Funny but I did not see one mention in the MA thread about the NAM but only looked at two threads.  I was up at Cowans Gap today and some of the smaller trees are indeed budding there as well.  Crazy.  Temps have been mild but not "that mild".

Edit-Just saw they have a thread called Worth Pattern Since 1990 or something like that...and mention it in there.  Tuesdays event is a classic boundary/get it while the going is bad type snow for the MA.   The LSV is in a decent spot based on today's model trends if you disregard the GFS.

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23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Early 12Z runs have it going from a developing low going under us to more of a Miller B like situation with the resulting transferred low OTS.  Frustrating that MR model runs continue to change so drastically. 

Yes, one run we are in the bullseye & the next we are not. The storm doesn’t even form until tomorrow, so there is lots of time to resolve. The Euro & Canadian have been fairly consistent with putting CTP in a good spot for this event over the last few days. I’m anxious to see what they have to say at 12z today.

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7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, one run we are in the bullseye & the next we are not. The storm doesn’t even form until tomorrow, so there is lots of time to resolve. The Euro & Canadian have been fairly consistent with putting CTP in a good spot for this event over the last few days. I’m anxious to see what they have to say at 12z today.

I definitely like the mid January  potential the GFS has shown the last few runs. Pattern wise it is close to something interesting. 

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12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, one run we are in the bullseye & the next we are not. The storm doesn’t even form until tomorrow, so there is lots of time to resolve. The Euro & Canadian have been fairly consistent with putting CTP in a good spot for this event over the last few days. I’m anxious to see what they have to say at 12z today.

The NAM for most runs since this thing has gotten into it's range has had it south of the area. 12z Canadian still runs a decent swath across the state while the GFS skirts the area but doesn't have much QPF. I am kind of leery of this late blooming system in this progressive pattern as precip is only starting to blossom in KY/TN. If we get decent precip rates I think we'd have accumulating snows but surface temps are going to be marginal so if rates are light, I think lower elevations in the LSV are going to have issues. This is looking like a quick 4-8 hour and 1-3" type deal if we get it. I had been thinking it had the potential to be a somewhat more potent system with higher end advisory amounts on the table but this has trended towards the progressive end overall the last several days. 

29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I definitely like the mid January  potential the GFS has shown the last few runs. Pattern wise it is close to something interesting. 

The frustrating part about this pattern, or at least one of them.. is the fact that we are certainly not lacking cold air on our side of the northern hemisphere. Canada looks downright cold and that dumps more into the west with the pattern alignment. The PNA on the ESRL site is forecast to dip to -6, which I don't know if I've ever seen that magnitude forecasted for that index. That's the downstream response of course to the massive central Pac ridge being progged to dominate that realm (western US trough). You couple that with a +NAO on the Atlantic side and a very positive AO and that's a bit much for even our latitude to be on the right side of the boundary for storm systems. And you see the results of that in the form of the cutter parades we're seeing on the longer range of the models. It's a tough look for at least the next 10 days. 

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6 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

 

The frustrating part about this pattern, or at least one of them.. is the fact that we are certainly not lacking cold air on our side of the northern hemisphere. Canada looks downright cold and that dumps more into the west with the pattern alignment. The PNA on the ESRL site is forecast to dip to -6, which I don't know if I've ever seen that magnitude forecasted for that index. That's the downstream response of course to the massive central Pac ridge being progged to dominate that realm (western US trough). You couple that with a +NAO on the Atlantic side and a very positive AO and that's a bit much for even our latitude to be on the right side of the boundary for storm systems. And you see the results of that in the form of the cutter parades we're seeing on the longer range of the models. It's a tough look for at least the next 10 days. 

As you have probably seen me mention I stay away from some of the more technical meteorological definitions because I do not always understand them well enough to comment and I think there is too much weight placed in trying to define patterns into each category however what I saw on the 12Z GFS (did not look at 18Z) was a trough that was threatening to go negatively tilted with LP's near by in both the Northern and Southern Stream  (and an HP just departing to our North East).  It did not work out on those panels but to me it was the closest thing to a SEC/MECs I have seen so far this winter.   In fact there was more that one opportunity on that 12Z GFS with other chances of boundary snow.

The cutter parade has been a nightmare for at least two winters in a row now.

 

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7 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

As you have probably seen me mention I stay away from some of the more technical meteorological definitions because I do not always understand them well enough to comment and I think there is too much weight placed in trying to define patterns into each category however what I saw on the 12Z GFS (did not look at 18Z) was a trough that was threatening to go negatively tilted with LP's near by in both the Northern and Southern Stream  (and an HP just departing to our North East).  It did not work out on those panels but to me it was the closest thing to a SEC/MECs I have seen so far this winter.   In fact there was more that one opportunity on that 12Z GFS with other chances of boundary snow.

The cutter parade has been a nightmare for at least two winters in a row now.

 

When it comes to the teleconnections, tropical forcing (MJO), etc there is certainly an argument to be had with placing too much weight on them at times...specifically when you have conflicting signals or magnitudes that aren't very strong. You will often hear me say that we don't need a -NAO to get a snowstorm around here. What we have with this pattern however, is strong magnitudes and correlation between all the different teleconnections in favor of the unfortunate result for our weather... That being southeast ridging and us being on the wrong side of the boundary for this upcoming period coming up. Honestly I think we're closer to this pattern eventually breaking into something way more favorable for us then one might think, but we have to ease the magnitude of some of the teleconnections working against us. 

I'm not sure which event you were describing on the GFS. If your talking about Tuesday's system, it's close to being something bigger but the pattern is too progressive and we see little interaction between the northern and southern stream. The result is the southern stream wave kicking out flat and unless models come back north some we'll see the bulk of precip going to MD/VA/DC and skirting the southern tier of our region. And it's an event on the lighter side to begin with anyways. We were closer to a MECS at the beginning of December when northern and NE PA on up into the interior northeast got whacked by a significant snowstorm and actually did give places in the LSV some snow.

Now tonight's model runs were interesting in the day 5-7 range. The GFS for instance has a cutter but also has strong Canadian high in place to the north and a much more moisture laden storm system. Like I said yesterday, there is a lot of cold air on our side of the pole... and between that and the SE ridge there is liable to be a huge temp gradient. The result will likely be a swath of significant snow and especially ice somewhere with the high pressure over the top in Canada. Both the GFS and Euro tonight illustrated this although to far northwest for us. This might actually have to be watched because a well timed strong high pressure moving to the north along with an approaching system from the south is the way to score winter weather in this unfavorable pattern. But it would have to be timed perfectly with the progressive pattern. The more likely result is another rainstorm with the wintry weather not far off, again. 

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