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Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020


MAG5035
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10 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Temp back up to 24

Looking at correlation coefficient imagery from the radars and mPing reports the ptype transition line is racing north and east much faster than I was expecting but with low track to our west honestly I’m not surprised... starting to wonder if more icing ends up occurring around here than was expected.  Cold near surface will hold but aloft not looking likely.

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Just now, djr5001 said:

Looking at correlation coefficient imagery from the radars and mPing reports the ptype transition line is racing north and east much faster than I was expecting but with low track to our west honestly I’m not surprised... starting to wonder if more icing ends up occurring around here than was expected.  Cold near surface will hold but aloft not looking likely.

It really isn't a surprise. Warm air aloft waiteth for no one...

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1 minute ago, djr5001 said:

Looking at correlation coefficient imagery from the radars and mPing reports the ptype transition line is racing north and east much faster than I was expecting but with low track to our west honestly I’m not surprised... starting to wonder if more icing ends up occurring around here than was expected.  Cold near surface will hold but aloft not looking likely.

That’s what I was concerned about. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

My temp is up to 28.4! Ceiling really raised the last hour, it's starting to thicken again now.

I am anticipating that your 2-4 forecast will verify! Many us now only need another inch or so of snow for it to verify at least on the lower end.

Another 2 hours or so of decent snow should make your forecast verify.

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6 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Looking at correlation coefficient imagery from the radars and mPing reports the ptype transition line is racing north and east much faster than I was expecting but with low track to our west honestly I’m not surprised... starting to wonder if more icing ends up occurring around here than was expected.  Cold near surface will hold but aloft not looking likely.

Unlike on the other side of the Alleghenies (SW PA), we have the benefit of it being really cold up through 925mb (~3k feet). The 850-800mb (5-6k feet) layer is what were rapidly losing, as it wasn't very cold to start with for this event. So while it's looking like the mixing is going to probably get way up into the north central eventually, it's going to be predominantly sleet for most of us. I think any ZR will be confined to the Laurel's and possibly southern tier under the turnpike. Pretty much what the NAM had been advertising for several runs leading up to this. It had the strongest punch of 850mb temps but kept the 925mb layer very cold. 

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CTP recently issued this statement:

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 1153 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-026>028-045-049-050-056-057-063>065- 181815- McKean-York-Northern Centre-Union-Northern Clinton-Cameron-Elk-Juniata-Huntingdon-Dauphin-Snyder-Southern Centre-Perry-Potter-Southern Clinton-Adams-Clearfield-Cumberland-Mifflin-

1153 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 ...

AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT

ELK...NORTHEASTERN HUNTINGDON... DAUPHIN...CENTRE...SNYDER...EASTERN MCKEAN...UNION...PERRY... CUMBERLAND...CLINTON...ADAMS...NORTHERN CLEARFIELD...YORK... MIFFLIN...JUNIATA...POTTER AND CAMERON COUNTIES...

At 1151 AM EST, an area of moderate to heavy snow was located along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Portland Mills to near Reedsville to near East Berlin. Movement was northeast at 40 mph. This band of snow will drop visibility to under 1/2 mile. About 1-2 inches of snow is expected with this snow band. Sleet may also mix in with the snow in some locations.

This area of heavy snow will be near... Weigelstown, Lewistown and Dover around 1150 AM EST. York, Reeds Gap State Park and Potters Mills around 1155 AM EST. Johnsonburg, Manchester and Mount Wolf around 1200 PM EST. Poe Valley State Park, Coburn and Wilcox around 1205 PM EST. Middletown, Royalton and Millheim around 1210 PM EST. Hummelstown, Woodward and Weikert around 1215 PM EST. Other locations impacted by this area of heavy snow include York Haven, Gardners, Austin, West Milton and Biglerville.

This includes Interstate 80 from Clearfied County to Union County.

A winter weather advisory is in effect for the area. Please monitor local media outlets and the national weather service for further statements.

 

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Just went out to take a measurement.  0.6" on the ground.  It's heavy now but the flakes are pretty fine still.  Looking like it will get even heavier here when the moderate green arrives within the next 30 minutes.  Temp down to 25.7 / 22.6. Dew Point is rising now.  It held around 20 during the first round.

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50 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Looking at correlation coefficient imagery from the radars and mPing reports the ptype transition line is racing north and east much faster than I was expecting but with low track to our west honestly I’m not surprised... starting to wonder if more icing ends up occurring around here than was expected.  Cold near surface will hold but aloft not looking likely.

Not surprising given the mid level lows tracking NW if you. Unfortunately that’s a dead giveaway for lots of sleet. 

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