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Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020


MAG5035
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Meanwhile, outside of the Sus Valley tropics where the growing season apparently didn't end lol.. Special Weather Statement is out for a large portion of Central PA for the threat of snow squalls later today. Use caution if traveling that direction later on.. especially on I-80 where snow squalls seem to be synonymous with 30+ car/truck pileups on the regular. 

Quote

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1036 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-058-311800-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
1036 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

...DANGEROUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

Dangerous travel along highways is possible this afternoon and
early evening as snow squalls should drop visibilities below a
half a mile with icy roadways.

Snow squalls will begin in northwestern Pennsylvania early this
afternoon. These squalls will move through the northern and west
central portions of the state through the afternoon and early
evening hours. The heaviest snowfall will be in the northwest
mountains with a quick one to two inches possible.

It is also possible snow squall warnings may be needed this
afternoon and early evening, possibly along US Route 6, I 80, I
99 and US route 15 north of Selinsgrove, as this snow moves
through. Expect the snow to transition to lake effect snow showers
by early this evening.

If traveling this afternoon, be alert to rapidly changing visibility.
Untreated roads could become covered with snow during periods of
heavier snow.

 

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Meanwhile, outside of the Sus Valley tropics where the growing season apparently didn't end lol.. Special Weather Statement is out for a large portion of Central PA for the threat of snow squalls later today. Use caution if traveling that direction later on.. especially on I-80 where snow squalls seem to be synonymous with 30+ car/truck pileups on the regular. 

 

Won't it be too warm MAG? Hadn't heard about squalls until now.

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1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Won't it be too warm MAG? Hadn't heard about squalls until now.

This will be occurring later in the afternoon with the shortwave ushering in the precip and reinforcing colder air. The biggest threat for issues is probably west of the I-99/220 corridor but CTP is being proactive given some of the high res short range models. One would have to watch for wet roads with initially warmer temps to become slick quickly if the heavier snow squalls materialize.

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The 12z Euro's version of the potential Jan 7-8 system delivered a snow event to the commonwealth today, joining the Canadian's insistence on such things the last several runs. Today's Canadian looked a bit too wound up overall with it's evolution of not only that system but the weekend system preceding it, but mega deep systems are a Canadian trademark. GFS hasn't had much of a system at all the last few runs in this timeframe. So tons of spread in solutions remains with this. 

The Euro solution still technically cuts but has some secondary reflection to the coast and is a weaker wave overall so cold air aloft doesn't get routed. The result is a slug of precip (likely snowfall) that runs across the state in a widespread 2-5" type solution. There's been plenty of discussion on the gloomy outlook of the pattern overall going forward, but a window of opportunity is going to be there early next week. 

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27 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The 12z Euro's version of the potential Jan 7-8 system delivered a snow event to the commonwealth today, joining the Canadian's insistence on such things the last several runs. Today's Canadian looked a bit too wound up overall with it's evolution of not only that system but the weekend system preceding it, but mega deep systems are a Canadian trademark. GFS hasn't had much of a system at all the last few runs in this timeframe. So tons of spread in solutions remains with this. 

The Euro solution still technically cuts but has some secondary reflection to the coast and is a weaker wave overall so cold air aloft doesn't get routed. The result is a slug of precip (likely snowfall) that runs across the state in a widespread 2-5" type solution. There's been plenty of discussion on the gloomy outlook of the pattern overall going forward, but a window of opportunity is going to be there early next week. 

Thx Mag.  Happy New Year to you and yours!

Yeah, looking at flow for next week, we should be able to score something (front end or maybe bettter), and for that I'm personally not investing much time beyond as we have enough to do to land this one, let along get wrapped up too far beyond (NAO/AO support next weeks window).  Beyond that MJO says get out the tanning lotion, but I'm not buying in too much yet, as we've see enough flux in the last 2 weeks that we may trend to a less ominous solution beyond next week....or maybe it gets worse (if thats possible).

Is what it is, and I'll be lurking/sniffing out the next window all the same.

 

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57 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Thx Mag.  Happy New Year to you and yours!

Yeah, looking at flow for next week, we should be able to score something (front end or maybe bettter), and for that I'm personally not investing much time beyond as we have enough to do to land this one, let along get wrapped up too far beyond (NAO/AO support next weeks window).  Beyond that MJO says get out the tanning lotion, but I'm not buying in too much yet, as we've see enough flux in the last 2 weeks that we may trend to a less ominous solution beyond next week....or maybe it gets worse (if thats possible).

Is what it is, and I'll be lurking/sniffing out the next window all the same.

 

Happy New Year everyone!

We have the chance at a couple of winter weather events this week.

The first chance is Saturday night into Sunday morning. It will depend on if a secondary low develops, & if so, the location will determine if we can get a little snow out of it.

Here is the 12z Canadian & Euro.

50B1AEE1-7AB9-47A7-9C25-AF4B0511E025.png

08703EE3-3E90-4456-9B8D-4AAA7142E555.png

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19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@pasnownut & @MAG5035

What are your thoughts on the Saturday pm to Sunday am winter storm potential?

from my view at Ops, we have all but GFS showing a r to MAYBE s solution for LSV.  GFS says cutter.  As normal of late, boundary layers are marginal, so verbatim, I'd think we would see normally favored N and W locals getting in on frozen, and we ride the line in the lower LSV.  0z Nam continues to follow CMC and ICON path (looking merely for continuity/consensus) but 850's are not cool enough.  Looks like enough qpf for some to overcome and wetbomb for favored locals (cashtown/mag/kx), but its another tough one down here IMO.

If anyone wants snow again, go hug the CMC for all its worth, as it shows several chances to score next week, and storm number 3 for weekend of 1/10 extrapolated looks tasty.  Mind you I only say this for eye candy right now, as we've been a little starved for nice looking storms around here.  The good news is that there is enough lining up for next week to give any winter solutions some merit and worth watching (starting to get a bit footballed out anyway).

 

 

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7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@pasnownut & @MAG5035

What are your thoughts on the Saturday pm to Sunday am winter storm potential?

Right now I think it's yet another case of close but no cigar. Models do have quite a dynamic 500mb shortwave that passes in what would be a pretty decent position, though they differ a bit on surface reflection with GFS/NAM having more of a surface low through PA transferring to the coast while the Euro appears to do this underneath PA. The GFS/NAM solution isn't going to work to get anything synoptic snowwise in central PA (too far north). The Euro solution gives the best chance of a changeover scenario but the lower levels are still lagging just a bit too long, especially in the Sus Valley. We don't have established cold or anything to work with initially, and I think the pattern's too progressive to allow this dynamic system to wind up in time to actually present a changeover scenario. Thus, right now I feel the western mountains and especially NE PA seem to stand the best chance of seeing snowfall with this developing low.

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Jim Cantore posted this GFS image this morning on Twitter. 

Just a "bit" of difference in the snow output for the operational GFS vs the operational EURO through Sunday... #ugh All we know is this "event" should be over Sunday. Confidence in any details are low at this time. @weatherbell pic.twitter.com/zm9SPiQt7S

 

image.jpg

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7 hours ago, canderson said:

CTP says next Tuesday’s event is nothing for anyone but the Alleghenies if even them, and this weekend is light snow possible. 

I really might get into late January without an inch of snow  

Kinda depressing, isn't it? It's going to take a herculean storm to get MDT anywhere close to average. 

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8 hours ago, canderson said:

CTP says next Tuesday’s event is nothing for anyone but the Alleghenies if even them, and this weekend is light snow possible. 

I really might get into late January without an inch of snow  

The "Spring crops are ruined by lack of cold and snow" types are getting ready to start popping out of the woodwork.  I had hoped I would never have to deal with talking about that again.  But with the MA LR thread now starting to traverse into February talk some are soon going to start talking about the whole winter being gone regardless of the fact that most of the information over there ends up being wrong when actual weather plays out.  In reality as long as the cold stays close enough to us to matter, like it has been doing, we can get a dirty snow storm at any point including next week.  Not great but still better than 60's and 70's like last early winter. 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

The "Spring crops are ruined by lack of cold and snow" types are getting ready to start popping out of the woodwork.  I had hoped I would never have to deal with talking about that again.  But with the MA LR thread now starting to traverse into February talk some are soon going to start talking about the whole winter being gone regardless of the fact that most of the information over there ends up being wrong when actual weather plays out.  In reality as long as the cold stays close enough to us to matter, like it has been doing, we can get a dirty snow storm at any point including next week.  Not great but still better than 60's and 70's like last early winter. 

 

 

I’ve worn a coat I think 3 days. A jacket has been all the rest. At least last year we had that crazy cold snap around New Years. 

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56 minutes ago, daxx said:

That wasn’t last January.  You are thinking early January 2018. 

Yea, our cold snap last year was end of January.  Beginning of January temps were very similar to now though we were getting small snow events every few days (nights since the daytime temps never stayed below freezing until the 21st). 

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