pasnownut Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Parsing over nooners. Looks like North America coalition vs the Germans. let's see what the Europeans have to say in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Parsing over nooners. Looks like North America coalition vs the Germans. let's see what the Europeans have to say in a bit. They'll probably align with the Germans to form the axis powers of models determined to ruin our winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 You're still looking at der Ikon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Parsing over nooners. Looks like North America coalition vs the Germans. let's see what the Europeans have to say in a bit. Interesting the Canadian is the least wintry of the GFS, NAM, ICON,and itself. Not used to that. Jumps surfaces temps above freezing through 2/3 of PA. That's not going to happen in my opinion but used to having to mute the over exuberance of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: You're still looking at der Ikon? Yavulll weenie rule #1 says look at ALL models and hug the sh!t outta the one that gives you the most snow. yo no likey da Ikon right now. (my Spanglish) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Interesting the Canadian is the least wintry of the GFS, NAM, ICON,and itself. Not used to that. Jumps surfaces temps above freezing through 2/3 of PA. That's not going to happen in my opinion but used to having to mute the over exuberance of it. I never said it was a comfy coalition..... Truth told I think 18 or 0z will trim back on GFS and we hope n pray for CAD to do its dirty work for every hour we can (LSV crew) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: I never said it was a comfy coalition..... Truth told I think 18 or 0z will trim back on GFS and we hope n pray for CAD to do its dirty work for every hour we can (LSV crew) And the Rgem is a bit better than its more long term cousin but still warmer than I was expecting. "That's what HRRR" said suggests 2-4" over the LSV before changeover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Regardless of how much or little snow falls tomorrow, at least it will feel like winter for at least the next 5 days. For those that were talking about Roundtop the other night (and my daughter is up there skiing a lot) at the very least they'll be blowing a lot of the man made variety. If we don't have much or anything to look at in our backyards they'll have a nice base by midweek. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yavulll Is that a Yiddish spelling of Jawohl? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Here is Euro snow through 7PM tomorrow when the event is over...this should not include sleet and would be higher if the precip had not changed over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Here is Euro snow through 7PM tomorrow when the event is over...this should not include sleet and would be higher if the precip had not changed over. I’d take that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Euro 850's still punch fairly far North as the storm concludes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Steady (sort of, I wavered a bit Wednesday) as she goes with my Monday call: a general 2-4" with perhaps a bit less south and a bit more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Here is Euro snow through 7PM tomorrow when the event is over...this should not include sleet and would be higher if the precip had not changed over. Sign me up. Reasonable and similar in distribution to mesos and gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Steady (sort of, I wavered a bit Wednesday) as she goes with my Monday call: a general 2-4" with perhaps a bit less south and a bit more north. I was wondering if you were looking for cover or on the front lines with me. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I was wondering if you were looking for cover or on the front lines with me. lol No...I said I was sticking with my call. To this point this has been a good example of not model or more specifically snow map hugging. Have to know your climo in these types of events and then watch how the QPF distribution plays out. I know you watch the thermals which obviously means everything in one sense, but keeping them or losing them really results in us getting say closer to 2" or potentially making a run at 4". My rule of thumb is this: we lose thermals quicker than modeled, we keep ground temps longer than modeled. I constantly remind myself to expect more ice and less snow. This is making an assumption that we have CAD, which we will. There are exceptions and nuances with every event to be sure, but the above works out well for me way more often than it lets me down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Technically the Euro goes snow again next weekend but it is an iffy setup with a fairly week high providing CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Seeing that Sausse could throw a baseball 5280' Just have him throw ice into the clouds . at first I was thinking Bobby Abreu the professional outfielder but he can only throw about 380' so he wont work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: . I know you watch the thermals which obviously means everything in one sense, but keeping them or losing them really results in us getting say closer to 2" or potentially making a run at 4". The reasons you suggest is precisely why I watch the thermal boundaries. “Follow them and find your frozen” if you get my drift. While your CAD rule likely wins many bets....scenarios like this can/may be the exception with LP cutting so far W. This becomes a hybrid overrunning kinda scenario in my mind and warm punch often underperforms. guess we’ll know soon enough. Regardless I’m going to enjoy snow on the ground for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, Flatheadsickness said: 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: The reasons you suggest is precisely why I watch the thermal boundaries. “Follow them and find your frozen” if you get my drift. While your CAD rule likely wins many bets....scenarios like this can/may be the exception with LP cutting so far W. This becomes a hybrid overrunning kinda scenario in my mind and warm punch often underperforms. guess we’ll know soon enough. Regardless I’m going to enjoy snow on the ground for a few days. There is truth in that statement...there have been situations where LP has cut far enough west to help and not hurt us. Man, I'd love to see my grass disappear and then layered in ice. I can enjoy it for days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I am seeing the first chink in the armor of the "getting colder" trend. HRR was all frozen at 12Z but has now introduced the second shield starting off as plain rain for southern areas. It erodes the surface temps due to the long pause between precip events. I think it is too warm but regardless a 4-5 degree jump in temps from 12Z for some reason. The HRRR did not too so badly the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I don't believe any rapid warm up at the surface. Throw it out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 For the third time this season the pressure reached 30.70" (earlier today). That almost always means there will be strong CAD for any precip event that occurs within 36 hours of the pressure peak. So that's my reasoning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I don't believe any rapid warm up at the surface. Throw it out! If the sun breaks out I would not bet totally against it. The longer the break between shields the more risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I don't believe any rapid warm up at the surface. Throw it out! The 18Z NAM does not agree with the HRRR so I am more confident in your throw it out statement. The Nam does minor out that first finger of snow though...less than 1" for some now...but has a heavy burst of snow to start off round 2 in the LSV before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Advisory's hoisted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: For the third time this season the pressure reached 30.70" (earlier today). That almost always means there will be strong CAD for any precip event that occurs within 36 hours of the pressure peak. So that's my reasoning. Horst is calling for "an aggressive push or warm air aloft" for what it's worth. New map: (he moved the 3-6" contour south) First and last post from me regarding Horst until the next event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Horst is calling for "an aggressive push or warm air aloft" for what it's worth. New map: (he moved the 3-6" contour south) First and last post from me regarding Horst until the next event. I will be surprised if anyone in PA ends up lower than 2" but otherwise this is the HRRR verbatim as it pertains to the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I dont have or no were you guys get your tools or I would do it myself . I was wondering if anyone ever went back and looked at the pattern in late September and October I have been talking about. I was always hoping someone would take interest and look back. I think we do have a setup here pretty identical. If no one is talking to me now whatever . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 looks like its staring to come together if thats are low there in Texas . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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