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Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020


MAG5035
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49 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I need to get another weather station. I think our wind was worse from about 730pm up to about 530 this morning then all day yesterday. 

Looking at temps for tomorrow, to me it looks like we're below freezing until late tomorrow evening. am i looking at that right?

Going w/ 12k for 2m temps here is the "warmest" panel I could find for you.  Verbatim, many in eastern 1/2 of state struggle to get to freezing.  CAD is starting to show nicely in thermal profiles.

namconus_T2m_neus_42.png

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and for other reference to see what the consensus is, here is GFS and one of the WRF nest at same timestamp.  Saturday stays near or at freezing for LSV/CTP locals.  I'd think a blended range to the mid 30s happens for a couple/few hours before frontal passage and we drop back for Sunday.

 

gfs_T2m_neus_9.pngwrf-nmm_T2m_neus_49.png

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57 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

@Flatheadsickness I love your passion for the weather and accuracy of measuring snow.   My suggestion would be to become a spotter for NWS to make your obs known.   Snow amounts can vary at short distances.   MDT at the airport itself sits at 312’ right along the river.   Any gain in elevation is going to increase snow amounts. It’s not my fight to fight, but this forum is getting clogged up with your posts and becoming distracting from what this forum stands for.   Best of luck

I do understand your frustration  and I do know how a thin strip can train over a area a or a burst can happen in my side of town and not the other thats not the case here. I noticed Every storm since 2016 has been represented with a snow hate bias for the City and as I found out tonight the wrong station for the actual city and thats where the truth can be found. I held it in for three years before I finally called it out. 

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32 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Going w/ 12k for 2m temps here is the "warmest" panel I could find for you.  Verbatim, many in eastern 1/2 of state struggle to get to freezing.  CAD is starting to show nicely in thermal profiles.

namconus_T2m_neus_42.png

why did you draw that penis of warm air up through CPA? :arrowhead:

edit- looks like a couple nights next week we go into the teens

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Just now, sauss06 said:

why did you draw tahat penis of warm air up through CPA? :arrowhead:

Because you guys are gonna get f.............oh never mind...lol

Seriously though, I kind of thought the wind would die down overnight, but it's still ripping and rattling windows and stuff here.

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8 hours ago, 2001kx said:

The drive home from butler pa today was the worst drive of my life...scary on i80 with the squalls at night...20mph with flasher on...scary.

I so appreciate this comment. I hit a squall coming home from Philly last night...I'm 100% certain is nowhere near the magnitude of your experience, saying that we went from dry roads and what appeared to be mostly clear sky to blinding snow and a complete ground covering in seconds. Traffic went from 75-80mph down to 35 immediately. It was really cool but sort of scary, and i cannot begin to imagine what it's like to drive in "real" squalls up closer to the lakes. Glad you're safe! 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

On Monday they were calling for 5-8". Dropped it down to 3-5" on Tuesday and they haven't budged from those numbers since. 

Most aggressive for sure even down my way.  I believe they use an in house model which blends models to give their forecast.    It def looks nice for our area 

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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

On Monday they were calling for 5-8". Dropped it down to 3-5" on Tuesday and they haven't budged from those numbers since. 

TWC did drop the totals at least for me down to 1-3 for a few hours yesterday then right back to 3-5  were they have been there for a few days. I hate twc now but I started using there site way back in the day and still visit out of habit for some reason. Its got to be the shittiest running weather site out there.

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Just a reminder OF WHERE TO FIND HARRISBURGS REAL TOTALS AFTER THE STORM

 

Daily Summaries Station Details

Station Details
Name MIDDLETOWN 2.9 NW, PA US
Network:ID GHCND:US1PADP0014
Latitude/Longitude 40.234858°, -76.761678°
Elevation 155.4 m
Period of Record
Start Date¹ 2009-08-11
End Date¹ 2020-01-14
Data Coverage² 89%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
marker_default.png
vt?pb=!1m5!1m4!1i9!2i146!3i193!4i256!2m3
vt?pb=!1m5!1m4!1i9!2i145!3i193!4i256!2m3
vt?pb=!1m5!1m4!1i9!2i145!3i192!4i256!2m3
vt?pb=!1m5!1m4!1i9!2i145!3i194!4i256!2m3
vt?pb=!1m5!1m4!1i9!2i147!3i193!4i256!2m3
vt?pb=!1m5!1m4!1i9!2i146!3i194!4i256!2m3
vt?pb=!1m5!1m4!1i9!2i147!3i192!4i256!2m3
vt?pb=!1m5!1m4!1i9!2i147!3i194!4i256!2m3
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Point and click at this time is fairly aggressive. CTP not expecting (at this time anyway) any changeover until after sunset here...

Saturday
Snow, mainly after 9am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. South wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Saturday Night
Snow and freezing drizzle likely before 11pm, then rain showers likely between 11pm and 4am, then a slight chance of snow after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 27. South wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
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CTP showing 1 -3 here with sleet mixing around 4 PM.  I'm guessing they are waiting for the 12Z suite before issuing products.  On a totally unrelated note, the February natural gas futures have absolutely tanked.  Guess the traders do not see big arctic chill next month.

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