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Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020


MAG5035
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I haven't been able to figure out why run after run on the GFS it magically makes the snow evaporate over Cumberland and Adams counties while points west, north, and east all get more.  I mean I know there will always be a little bit of a downsloping effect from Blue Mountain but something seems wrong with the programming of the model for the area specifically sandwiched between Blue Mountain and South Mountain.  If MDT is getting 4" there's no way I'm only getting 0.5". 

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21 minutes ago, canderson said:

I'm down. AmericanWX road trip?

I will be going, it's just a matter of when. Stunning scenery, plenty of things to do outdoors and then well, there's the snow. A lot of it. Back in December they were under a Winter Weather Advisory for 1 - 2' of snow. 

Gotta earn a warning in the Sierra! 

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1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I haven't been able to figure out why run after run on the GFS it magically makes the snow evaporate over Cumberland and Adams counties while points west, north, and east all get more.  I mean I know there will always be a little bit of a downsloping effect from Blue Mountain but something seems wrong with the programming of the model for the area specifically sandwiched between Blue Mountain and South Mountain.  If MDT is getting 4" there's no way I'm only getting 0.5". 

The EC heard you and made sure all your closest neighbors got less than 2" as well so its fair.

image.png.a52eb0407aca9999e2afabd0f261bdd1.png

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The EC heard you and made sure all your closest neighbors got less than 2" as well so its fair.

image.png.a52eb0407aca9999e2afabd0f261bdd1.png

 

 

Gee, that makes me feel better?  What is with this snow hole?  I'd really like to know how meteorologically this is possible.  Is this a representation of a primary transferring to a secondary?  That's about the only thing that would make any sort of sense.

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24 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Gee, that makes me feel better?  What is with this snow hole?  I'd really like to know how meteorologically this is possible.  Is this a representation of a primary transferring to a secondary?  That's about the only thing that would make any sort of sense.

Ask Voyager the builder. 

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56 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I haven't been able to figure out why run after run on the GFS it magically makes the snow evaporate over Cumberland and Adams counties while points west, north, and east all get more.  I mean I know there will always be a little bit of a downsloping effect from Blue Mountain but something seems wrong with the programming of the model for the area specifically sandwiched between Blue Mountain and South Mountain.  If MDT is getting 4" there's no way I'm only getting 0.5". 

 

39 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Gee, that makes me feel better?  What is with this snow hole?  I'd really like to know how meteorologically this is possible.  Is this a representation of a primary transferring to a secondary?  That's about the only thing that would make any sort of sense.

 

This is exactly what I used to go through a few years ago. There would always be a significant dip to the south right over eastern Schuylkill County in the contours where points to both my west and east would be modeled to get like 3-6 inches more than I would.

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52 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Gee, that makes me feel better?  What is with this snow hole?  I'd really like to know how meteorologically this is possible.  Is this a representation of a primary transferring to a secondary?  That's about the only thing that would make any sort of sense.

My take of looking over it  that we are in the unlucky spot of having 800- 850's punched up from the south before most of the second slug of precip gets there while those to our east and west have better timing either of precip time or less of an 800-850 punch.

 

 

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There are only two things that I can count on every day.  The sun rising and setting and the MA LR thread full of posts about a snow storm "signal" in days 11-15 and more posts about why storms in the days 5-10 frame, previous identified as snow storms in 11-15 fives days earlier, are now dumpster fires.  If you counted up all the fantasy signal snow storms in days 11-15 one would have double the snow over each winter than all the Canadian snowfall maps posted here combined.

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

There are only two things that I can count on every day.  The sun rising and setting and the MA LR thread full of posts about a snow storm "signal" in days 11-15 and more posts about why storms in the days 5-10 frame, previous identified as snow storms in 11-15 fives days earlier, are now dumpster fires.  If you counted up all the fantasy signal snow storms in days 11-15 one would have double the snow over each winter than all the Canadian snowfall maps posted here combined.

 

 

 

:D
 

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38 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My take of looking over it  that we are in the unlucky spot of having 800- 850's punched up from the south before most of the second slug of precip gets there while those to our east and west have better timing either of precip time or less of an 800-850 punch.

 

 

Well, thanks for giving an explanation.  What you say makes sense.  It's just hard to imagine how terrain could literally act like a funnel to shove that tongue of warm air aloft up over us.

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

There are only two things that I can count on every day.  The sun rising and setting and the MA LR thread full of posts about a snow storm "signal" in days 11-15 and more posts about why storms in the days 5-10 frame, previous identified as snow storms in 11-15 fives days earlier, are now dumpster fires.  If you counted up all the fantasy signal snow storms in days 11-15 one would have double the snow over each winter than all the Canadian snowfall maps posted here combined.

 

 

 

:lol:

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3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Well, thanks for giving an explanation.  What you say makes sense.  It's just hard to imagine how terrain could literally act like a funnel to shove that tongue of warm air aloft up over us.

:lol:

I think a lot of it is just timing but look at this map showing that punch right up into the LSV while to the west and east the 850's are a bit lower. .  

 

image.png.3fa3d378fad72e506a3d0f2d398c966a.png

 

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Eric Horst says this is a nothingburger for anyone south of the turnpike.

 

https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/1217896597079691264?s=20

 

Edit: Tweet won't embed.

Below turnpike: c-1", then sleet/ice/rain
Turnpike to say CTP: 1-3", then sleet/ice/rain

Voyager to Williamsport to Clearfield: 3-6", then sleet/ice/rain
Harrisburg is right on the c-1, 1-3" line. My under/over is 1.5" snow for MDT.

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Eric Horst says this is a nothingburger for anyone south of the turnpike.

 

https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/1217896597079691264?s=20

 

Edit: Tweet won't embed.

Below turnpike: c-1", then sleet/ice/rain
Turnpike to say CTP: 1-3", then sleet/ice/rain

Voyager to Williamsport to Clearfield: 3-6", then sleet/ice/rain
Harrisburg is right on the c-1, 1-3" line. My under/over is 1.5" snow for MDT.

sounds much like I've been saying for the last 2 days wrt thermal boundaries and whos gettting what. 

Glad he agrees w/ me :hug:

Still think less rain though.  18z NAM says so as well.  I'll hug it for helping me be right w/ my guess.

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Just now, Flatheadsickness said:

HBG  should defiantly be a little over that 8.7

total for the year. No biggie 

We've had three snowfalls - last week's which they came in at 4", one where we had a dusting (OK you could I guess if had a perfect board setup say we had .3" maybe) and a cartopper early that was just a trace. 

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