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Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020


MAG5035
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Just now, daxx said:

I might be wrong, but I believe this might be the first event this year we don't  have to drop to 32 for it stick.  We will be starting out cold, then a slow climb. Too bad we are not getting a big thump on the front end.  

Yep, going to be like a real winter event.  Good call on that.  

 

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Just now, daxx said:

I might be wrong, but I believe this might be the first event this year we don't  have to drop to 32 for it stick.  We will be starting out cold, then a slow climb. Too bad we are not getting a big thump on the front end.  

Well we've had two "events" (and one was just a dusting) but I do believe you are correct. 

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3 minutes ago, daxx said:

I might be wrong, but I believe this might be the first event this year we don't  have to drop to 32 for it stick.  We will be starting out cold, then a slow climb. Too bad we are not getting a big thump on the front end.  

Yeah it is a shame, but gut says tonight we "moisten" up a bit (my wife L O V E S that word :lol:)

so as Trainer suggests, we should have cold enough ground to save every flake/pellet we get.

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Just parsing through the rest of the storm on the ICON, and i've gotta say that it really trended better in the front and back.  

Toggle through and watch the 540's (critical thickness where snow likes to live).  You can see CAD early on and then backside collapse as column cools.  Verbatim, there would be some surprises in there.

That's purely model reading btw....

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While the ICON is  frozen/non frozen with no ice component built in....watch the southern tick across the MD line.  Thats what we want to see for a better frozen outcome (especially us south of the Turnpike).  These are the trends i look for.  While its small and maybe considered noise to some, when your living on the edge...its everything.

6z

icon_asnow_neus_26.png

12z

icon_asnow_neus_24.png

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38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

For the love of God...

Just overheard a conversation on the other side of the office. Dude is telling a couple of coworkers that we're getting 5-8" of snow Saturday. One of the women asks the dude where he gets his weather info, to which he replies "S&S Stormchasing on Facebook...those guys seem to be the best."

Ugh. 

I marched my fat a** right on over and set 'em straight. 

I thought the day we ruined them on PennLive.com was the last we would have heard of them. 

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2 minutes ago, daxx said:

I would take the 12z gfs and be happy. 2 to 4  of snow and sleet.  I'm not paying too much attention to it's 2m temps.  I will use nam for that. 

absolutely.  It too ticked South w/ 540's, so while we dont need to trust it...we'll take the trend for sure.  CAD also showing up a bit more early on. 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

If that happens I might finally pull the trigger and book a room at the lodge in Mammoth Lakes, CA. 700" of snow last year with continuous cover for 250+ days in town...I'm getting the itch. 

@Flatheadsickness might have already delivered those composting worms to Daxx so maybe some got loose and that explains the itch?

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33 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The of the GFS went to POO for the rest of the month. North Dakota Cutter next Weekend and missed phase end of month. 

 

25 minutes ago, daxx said:

Yea...if this happens I'm sure we will talking more about worms than snow.  

 

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

If that happens I might finally pull the trigger and book a room at the lodge in Mammoth Lakes, CA. 700" of snow last year with continuous cover for 250+ days in town...I'm getting the itch. 

that'd be enough to make me take up drinking!

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28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The of the GFS went to POO for the rest of the month. North Dakota Cutter next Weekend and missed phase end of month. 

crazy how different a couple model runs can go.  6z was nuts in snow dept and now its going to be about 1/4 of that (of which most falls this weekend. 

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13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

If that happens I might finally pull the trigger and book a room at the lodge in Mammoth Lakes, CA. 700" of snow last year with continuous cover for 250+ days in town...I'm getting the itch. 

 At least those great snowfall maps have us at 10 plus feet so far. So I consider this winter a win!  

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I especially find a bit of humor how it transfers from Western Indiana to Easton, PA between 228 and 234. 

Yeah.  Quite lol worthy.  I only took time to post the maps because I wanted to try to suppress the influx of "its over" posts.....

 

and in truth...we're still trying to get "it" started. :P

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