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Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020


MAG5035
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and to narrow the goalposts a bit per the good convo above, knowing our regional climo here says w/ a setup like this, and what we are seeing on the maps, gut says very little pure liquid if at all. Warm nose gets into Oh, but CAD structure should show up inside of 24-36 as we near go time.  Thermal profiles should support more sleet.  If 700 warms then ZR wins the day.

On the other hand Trainers 2-4 is really a legit call w/ an event like this.  

As the storm track seems to be pretty well defined.  Keep an eye on the HP.  Thats the money ticket for frozen.  If that loses strength or gets outta here more expeditiously in the next couple days....well you know what that means.

 

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4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and to narrow the goalposts a bit per the good convo above, knowing our regional climo here says w/ a setup like this, and what we are seeing on the maps, gut says very little pure liquid if at all. Warm nose gets into Oh, but CAD structure should show up inside of 24-36 as we near go time.  Thermal profiles should support more sleet.  If 700 warms then ZR wins the day.

On the other hand Trainers 2-4 is really a legit call w/ an event like this.  

As the storm track seems to be pretty well defined.  Keep an eye on the HP.  Thats the money ticket for frozen.  If that loses strength or gets outta here more expeditiously in the next couple days....well you know what that means.

 

Yep...it means something for snow amounts, but it means everything for the duration of frozen. 

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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Totally agree. And coming off last week's little gem in a godawful pattern we'd be in a great spot going forward.

I don't read DT either. :) 

As many times as hes ridden the good ship "ECMWF" to its death, he really takes away from his credibility.  Its a great model, but not perfect as we all know too well.

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Wow...I can't believe how dead it got in here. 12z GFS and Euro are out, and there's no discussion. I imagine it's because the Euro was a big fat kick in the nuts. Still holding on to about 4 inches here (a far cry from earlier depictions), but what it did to the Lower Susquehanna region is unreal...

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2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Wow...I can't believe how dead it got in here. 12z GFS and Euro are out, and there's no discussion. I imagine it's because the Euro was a big fat kick in the nuts. Still holding on to about 4 inches here (a far cry from earlier depictions), but what it did to the Lower Susquehanna region is unreal...

If you look back through the past few threads we've been very erratic posters. There are times (I'm talking recently) where there isn't a single post for 24 hours and then we'll rip off 2-3 pages in 8 hours. While snow talk contributes to that, it isn't all of it. We were pretty active over the weekend talking about the warmth. 

I'm sure some of the quiet right now is watching everything get progressively worse for the weekend...it's disheartening even if it should have been expected to some degree. 

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48 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Wow...I can't believe how dead it got in here. 12z GFS and Euro are out, and there's no discussion. I imagine it's because the Euro was a big fat kick in the nuts. Still holding on to about 4 inches here (a far cry from earlier depictions), but what it did to the Lower Susquehanna region is unreal...

I have just been crazy busy...stopping in a few times a day but no time to post much.  

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58 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Wow...I can't believe how dead it got in here. 12z GFS and Euro are out, and there's no discussion. I imagine it's because the Euro was a big fat kick in the nuts. Still holding on to about 4 inches here (a far cry from earlier depictions), but what it did to the Lower Susquehanna region is unreal...

I have the least knowledge here. leading up to events i read more and post less. 

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Well today's 12z GFS was probably one of the better runs yet for the area from that model, essentially having a nearly all snow/frozen event for everyone north of the turnpike.  The Euro doesn't have a lot of QPF up front, or overall really... probably about 50% of the GFS QPF. I don't see a tremendous difference thermally, 850's spike above zero very briefly and they're already crashing all within a 6 hr frame on both. The Euro just didn't have very much of a front end thump, whether that's right or wrong. My opinion attm is it probably is a bit too dry. Anyone with Euro ensemble products can probably see if that's reflective of such things on there. Still plenty of time,  by this time tomorrow we'll be able to get some early hot takes on the NAM. 

This probably won't be an especially long duration storm either, pattern is still progressive. This thing is coming into the Pac NW, reforming on the other side of the Rockies and pretty much moving straight across at the same latitude. The strong high is there but it isn't anchored and will be moved as the storm approaches from the west. But cold air wraps around this system quickly and never really drives up anything torch-worthy aloft, so I think the cold will hold at low levels enough if the heavier precip is there up front. I'd say the top end potential is a 4-8 type deal for a C-PA location that sees a mainly frozen event. 

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58 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

18Z GFS speeds it back up a tad....morning start to the snow Saturday. 

also looks a little better than 12z early on w/ LP.  Also a little further south w/ frozen.  

No nuts kicked here.  Some just dont over analyze an op run at 5 days.  We look for trends and there really has been little new here.  

As I stated earlier today, thermal profiles are what are most important, and 18z was a notable improvement at 700/850's.  Supports more frozen.

Actually I'm quite happy with what i just saw.  Nice step for CTP

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I was going to rant today about its nothing new at all  for the models dance around in this time frame until where within 72 hours to 48 hours. But considering how smooth things have went with this systems forecast so far out I figured she would be coming back home in no time . You can tell we been through a few bad years here. Dont let the computers stump on your fun on the way. 

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27 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

No nuts kicked here.  Some just dont over analyze an op run at 5 days.  We look for trends and there really has been little new here. 

It's been an extremely boring day/week/month. I haven't worked since 12/19 due to the charter bus business being highly seasonal (which I never knew until I got in), and the whole company being closed from 12/23 to 1/6. It's very frustrating not working, and I'm really wishing I'd have stayed in trucking. Sorry for being a bit "ornery" today...

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I noticed squirrels In mass relocating there hidden food supply's form the ground to there nests yesterday and today before the rain. Going to turn up some earth tonight outside and check worm depths and check rotten logs and do some spore prints to see what mycelium fruiting bodies are emerging and scope some hyphae if I find time. I need good winters to and storms to Hone this stuff in. I realize no one cares one shit about what I have to say but thats ok I love you guys anyways this year. :) 

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21 minutes ago, Voyager said:

It's been an extremely boring day/week/month. I haven't worked since 12/19 due to the charter bus business being highly seasonal (which I never knew until I got in), and the whole company being closed from 12/23 to 1/6. It's very frustrating not working, and I'm really wishing I'd have stayed in trucking. Sorry for being a bit "ornery" today...

Not working will get any man down. Sorry to here that. I think that guys her like you plenty enough your venting here will be welcomed by them. 

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8 minutes ago, Flatheadsickness said:

I noticed squirrels In mass relocating there hidden food supply's form the ground to there nests yesterday and today before the rain. Going to turn up some earth tonight outside and check worm depths and check rotten logs and do some spore prints to see what mycelium fruiting bodies are emerging and scope some hyphae if I find time. I need good winters to and storms to Hone this stuff in. I realize no one cares one shit about what I have to say but thats ok I love you guys anyways this year. :) 

Not that we don’t care....

Just have no friggin clue what your talkin bout pal. 
:lmao:
 

 

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The 18z GEFS still looks good for Saturday snow. 

We have seen this countless times, where models have a “mid range crisis” 4 or 5 days out from a storm, only to then go back to what they had originally from longer range. Heck, even last weeks snow storm, the Euro had going strongly into the lakes, while the GFS was south & east. Then, in the short range, our snow event came back together.

Hopefully the Euro gets back on board by tomorrow. 

Here is that 18z GEFS.

 

8903C28B-3A5A-4653-A670-77FBF17E5C9F.png

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1 hour ago, Flatheadsickness said:

I noticed squirrels In mass relocating there hidden food supply's form the ground to there nests yesterday and today before the rain. Going to turn up some earth tonight outside and check worm depths and check rotten logs and do some spore prints to see what mycelium fruiting bodies are emerging and scope some hyphae if I find time. I need good winters to and storms to Hone this stuff in. I realize no one cares one shit about what I have to say but thats ok I love you guys anyways this year. :) 

I need somebody to quote my response to this. I'm turning my phone down for a bit to get higher than giraffe snatch and **** *want*, I *need* to read about mycelium fruiting bodies and worm depths high off my ass because that's probably the only way I will EVER understand what the **** you just said.

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9 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I need somebody to quote my response to this. I'm turning my phone down for a bit to get higher than giraffe snatch and **** *want*, I *need* to read about mycelium fruiting bodies and worm depths high off my ass because that's probably the only way I will EVER understand what the **** you just said.

What’s funny is that’s it’s probably legit, and I’m too dumb to know better. 

Ok....back to storm stuff. 0zs incoming and they are the most important run since....
 

the 18zs :snowing:

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1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

I need somebody to quote my response to this. I'm turning my phone down for a bit to get higher than giraffe snatch and **** *want*, I *need* to read about mycelium fruiting bodies and worm depths high off my ass because that's probably the only way I will EVER understand what the **** you just said.

Well the good news would be then its to wet to get a good spore prints tonight for good identification . Worms needs a in a consistent environment to be much use meaning that out doors I would already expect them  to be at surface levels with the ground already being wet and plenty warm enough for worms. If it were dry and cooled I would expect them to be deep depending on species or sub species  but how deep depends on how cold it will get and possibly how well the ground will get insulated  there are other factors like carbon and nitrate levels (food sorces) that play. I believe there are specific fruiting mycelium that use the snow to move spores and second  and to provide chilling hours to the insure spores early spring emergence. Mycelium is the in Layman's terms is the mushroom root  the mushroom is the fruit and the mushroom hyphae is a individual root if root is what I am going to call it for now. Mycelium matts are  the largest living organisms  on the planet some colonies sutures have been found lager that road island and are almost in complete control of there  ecosystem and as a collective has as much influence on the weather as do the trees . The trees and Mycelium are as symbiotic as it can get. Mycelium makes  the co2 for trees and trees make the o2 for everything . The mycelium plays a huge part in chelation of elements through enzymatic digestion  and serves as a transport system to get the chelated elements to the trees. In turn the tree rootsalso has some enzymatic  magic to feed the mycelium.  

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