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Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020


MAG5035
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Went up to 71 degrees at 1 am lastnight...probably one of the worst winter nights I've ever had for sleeping because of how hot it was. Had to close the windows in the bedroom 2 times because of both lines of storms blowing rain in. And after the first one went the temp would shoot back up and it was just uncomfortable sleeping lol. I don't have any central ac and have a coal stove going downstairs so lol yeah it was hard to keep cool. It really felt like it was a May night or something.

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22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

What was a weekend storm, next week, is quickly turning into a Friday-Friday Night slopfest.  Nice front end snows on 12Z GFS.

Yes, the quicker that the storm next weekend moves in, will be for the better for more front end snow. That 1040 High in Ontario should really help the cause. The secondary that the GFS is forming off off the Delmarva should help hold in the cold as well.

The front end snow was very nice on the 12z GFS.

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On 1/11/2020 at 12:17 PM, Blizzard of 93 said:

Ha ha! I’m not upset. I love anytime that this board gets a good discussion going.

@pasnownut is too busy now with his snowmobile in upstate NY to be worried about the warm up talk.

I am very comforted by knowing that this warm up is temporary. We only have 5 days until winter returns. The best days of this winter will be starting next weekend!

Was up at cabin muzzleloader hunting. No sledding this weekend. 
I can’t change what happens weathwise and just deal with it. As I’ve said for years...us snow lovers get 3 months so the other 9 we watch. That’s my rub. All good. 

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Normally I'd say a 1040+ high is money for a mostly frozen or icy event in most of C-PA, but these are pretty wound up solutions into the Lower Lakes along with the high pressure not being anchored. We need to see a weaker low or a better/early enough transfer to the coast. Obviously a further southeast track underneath us would be ideal but this one probably cuts if it ends up being a deeper system. Certainly a solid possibility of seeing decent wintry weather impacts but this will def be a flawed system/setup. We're in the midst of the transition period in that timeframe and we're not quite there yet pattern wise as still see pretty notable eastern ridging present at 500mb with this storm arriving.

So the big keys will be strength and positioning of the Canadian high for the system arriving, and how much the cold presses into the area later this week prior to the event. If you don't press that boundary far enough south we could end up with an event that's more wet than wintry. 

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The 0z suite looked pretty good overnight, with a significant front end snowfall on both the GFS and Euro aided by the progged strong high pressure. The preceding shortwave mid-week is more notable on tonight's guidance which may be helping set the cold air boundary better. Euro solution was the snowiest, with a majority of the subforum seeing 6"+ on 10:1 maps. GFS had 6"+ north of the turnpike central and eastern thirds of the state but turned most of the area over to rain at the end. That usually doesn't happen as either the storm overall ends up warmer and you see less front end snow or you get significant snows up front and typically that's a colder/icier outcome after changeover.  Euro solution presented an opportunity for potentially an all frozen event or snow to mix for some as it is a tad weaker with the primary and it looks to occlude/ try to transfer to the coast. Gonna be interesting to watch this evolve this week. Some shades of last winter's Jan 19-20th event. 

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

The 0z suite looked pretty good overnight, with a significant front end snowfall on both the GFS and Euro aided by the progged strong high pressure. The preceding shortwave mid-week is more notable on tonight's guidance which may be helping set the cold air boundary better. Euro solution was the snowiest, with a majority of the subforum seeing 6"+ on 10:1 maps. GFS had 6"+ north of the turnpike central and eastern thirds of the state but turned most of the area over to rain at the end. That usually doesn't happen as either the storm overall ends up warmer and you see less front end snow or you get significant snows up front and typically that's a colder/icier outcome after changeover.  Euro solution presented an opportunity for potentially an all frozen event or snow to mix for some as it is a tad weaker with the primary and it looks to occlude/ try to transfer to the coast. Gonna be interesting to watch this evolve this week. Some shades of last winter's Jan 19-20th event. 

That was the storm that CTP had metro Harrisburg in their 8"-10" zone the morning of the storm, and they ended up with 3.3" I believe. 

I got 2" before a quick transition to ice. 

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

The 0z suite looked pretty good overnight, with a significant front end snowfall on both the GFS and Euro aided by the progged strong high pressure. The preceding shortwave mid-week is more notable on tonight's guidance which may be helping set the cold air boundary better. Euro solution was the snowiest, with a majority of the subforum seeing 6"+ on 10:1 maps. GFS had 6"+ north of the turnpike central and eastern thirds of the state but turned most of the area over to rain at the end. That usually doesn't happen as either the storm overall ends up warmer and you see less front end snow or you get significant snows up front and typically that's a colder/icier outcome after changeover.  Euro solution presented an opportunity for potentially an all frozen event or snow to mix for some as it is a tad weaker with the primary and it looks to occlude/ try to transfer to the coast. Gonna be interesting to watch this evolve this week. Some shades of last winter's Jan 19-20th event. 

It also seemed to slow it back down to a weekend storm again (for the LSV).  The snow has not even broken out at 7AM on the 0Z Euro  where as it was approaching NYC at that same time on the previous run. 

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Back from the cabin, and getting back into the swing of things.  Looks like you guys did a good job of keeping the ship heading in the right direction.  Exciting times ahead.  Nice to see Euro/GFS on similar trains of thought, and w/ the Euro coming in better...its a great spot to be in.

LR guidance says cold looks to hold for a while.  Not parsing over detaiils too much but its nice to see reds and blues where they belong on the 500's.   

 

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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP sounds really bullish this far out, interesting. 

Turns out, they're all masochists that get off on the general public slamming them on Facebook while holding up rodents as more accurate, and so they just continue to sound the alarm knowing how wrong they'll look. 

 

Or they're trying to get the same horde of morons to run for office, become elected, and end the National Weather Service, which is probably more likely.

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22 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Turns out, they're all masochists that get off on the general public slamming them on Facebook while holding up rodents as more accurate, and so they just continue to sound the alarm knowing how wrong they'll look. 

 

Or they're trying to get the same horde of morons to run for office, become elected, and end the National Weather Service, which is probably more likely.

Hey The White House had a blizzard last night, just ask any unnamed NOAA meteorologist. And Twitter. 

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