Jns2183 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 The 12z GFS is on board with snow to ice for us next Saturday. The high to our north east looks strong & this system looks to have a ton of moisture. That’s an ugly ice storm for cashtown and that whole area. Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, daxx said: I can't wait until the dewpoint spike later tonight and tomorrow morning. I might stay up for it. Lol! I was telling my wife this morning that tonight would be a snow lover's nightmare scenario triple play...high temps, high dews and rain. Never forget January 96 when I lost 2' of snow cover in about 8 hours one night. I'm glad my snow is already gone so I don't have to go through the agony tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Was it 2 years ago in February we hit 78 and were under tornado warnings? Saw my first tornado touchdown in early Feb of 99 fishing the susq just south of brunner island . I dont remember the temps but I was in shorts and a t-shirt December of 98 was a torch. winter of 2011 never got very cold all winter. Bass where spawning by late march and Annual cicadas started very early emergence in the second and third weeks of April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Next Friday night and Saturday is looking hopeful to me But part of me kinda really wants to show my ass to Philly. Maybe I can have it both ways if the mood is right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 It’s 70 in my backyard. Impressive for not a bit of sun today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, canderson said: It’s 70 in my backyard. Impressive for not a bit of sun today. Only 65 here. Wind is next to nothing. Shingles are probably being ripped from houses on front street. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 hours ago, daxx said: 12z Euro was definitely an improvement over its 00z run. This is for early next weekend. Front end snow to rain. Hopefully we can keep trending better as we get closer. Yes indeed, the 12z Euro did improve for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 . Pro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 If my A/C was not covered up it would be on right now. Crazy 74 degrees in my house. Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: . Pro Great info, thanks. So the top two are 2 of the last 3 decades. Wonder if there are any record keeping issues there as otherwise that is pretty definitive info that it is VERY rare to hit 68 in January and we have indeed had more days at that temp since some time in the 1970's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Great info, thanks. So the top two are 2 of the last 3 decades. Wonder if there are any record keeping issues there as otherwise that is pretty definitive info that it is VERY rare to hit 68 in January and we have indeed had more days at that temp since some time in the 1970's. Do you know if the sensor has been in the same general area or has it changed over the years? Sometimes they get moved around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 About 10 mins after my post the sun has poked through briefly. Weeee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If my A/C was not covered up it would be on right now. Crazy 74 degrees in my house. Terrible. Don’t worry too much... next weekend we might be shoveling snow .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 AC is cranking...65 outside, 66 inside. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Don’t worry too much... next weekend we might be shoveling snow .... I think I could say anything and you would get a reply in about snow coming. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, daxx said: Do you know if the sensor has been in the same general area or has it changed over the years? Sometimes they get moved around. That's one of my questions as it makes the states much less significant if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 Def a strong signal for the event around the 19th-20th, as it's been pretty prominent on the models the last few days. Quite a strong high to the north being progged, which is a change from most of the events we've been presented with so far this winter and if that feature remains a player on ensuing runs we will likely be tracking a winter storm with potentially wide ranging impacts for our area this week as we bring in some fresh cold just prior and set in place that high pressure. The pattern going forward for the second half of the month is rapidly looking much, much better. We're currently working a very high amplitude phase 4/5 MJO but I've noticed in forecasts the last several days that this MJO pulse has been progressing rapidly out of the bad range (4-6) and it is starting to carry amplitude into more favorable phases on some of the model forecasts. We could find eventually that this ends up carrying into 8-1-2, which could potentially help the NAO realm if that were to come to fruition. We see lessening of the +AO over the pole and a stunning reversal of the PNA (which our next potential winter storm is right in the middle of) in the forecasts as well. Considering this winter as a whole so far, we're really right around where we were at this time last winter minus the November snowstorm.. complete with cancelling January during the last week of December and all. 32 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: . Pro Intriguing that the fabled decade that the ice age was coming back (the 1970s) has only one less 68º+ meteorological winter day than this past decade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Intriguing that the fabled decade that the ice age was coming back (the 1970s) has only one less 68º+ meteorological winter day than this past decade. I was thinking the same thing when I saw that. Nice writeup on the extended! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 The 18z GFS is still good for next Saturday for a very solid front end thump of snow followed by ice then rain at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Temperature continues to slowly climb...now sitting at 66.4 with a dewpoint of 58. With the dew continuing to rise combined with the temperature it's not a stretch to say it's a night typical of early June. Remarkable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 CTP has canceled the wind warnings, now just advisories, and dropped max gusts to mid 30s in the forecast but raised them to 50 in the advisory (higher than what the wind warning had listed). WTF? I absolutely give up lol. strong south winds are a but rare here really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: I was telling my wife this morning that tonight would be a snow lover's nightmare scenario triple play...high temps, high dews and rain. Never forget January 96 when I lost 2' of snow cover in about 8 hours one night. I'm glad my snow is already gone so I don't have to go through the agony tonight. I will never forget that either. I grew up in Willow Street/Conestoga area and remember being so upset when I woke up the next morning to it ALL gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Up to 71 degrees at 11:44 pm. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Up to 71 degrees at 11:44 pm. LOLStanding outside it sounds and feels like a late October tropical system that’s booking North at 50mph. The canopy of the trees sound like a jet engine. Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, canderson said: Up to 71 degrees at 11:44 pm. LOL Congrats! Open the windows and let that fresh air blow right on in. Meanwhile, MDT did not set a record high today, for the 11th. As of 11pm they were at 68 degrees. Record high for today was 71 set back in 1975. However, they ARE going to set a record for tomorrow, the 12th since the record for the 12th is only 65 degrees which we should all remember fondly as it was set just 3 years ago in 2017! CTP also just issued a SPS for a mini squall line embedded within the leading edge of the approaching rain band. Gusts to 45mph possible. I'll be monitoring that on my weather station to see how high I gust. So far my peak gust has been 27.3 mph. Strong southerly winds continue at 10 to 15 with gusts to 25 frequently. Just an amazing January day all in all. Definitely excited about the upcoming pattern change and the possible snow event late Friday into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Ok, the midnight obs are in and MDT has risen to 69 degrees which sets a new record for the 12th. There's still a tiny bit of time for them to maybe touch 70 briefly before the rain arrives. My temp peaked at 68.0 degrees around 11:30pm and has now begun to fall back as the rain has just begun here. Down to 65.7 after starting the day off at 66.9 at midnight. Also, CXY has gone up another degree and is now 72!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Quick update at 12:40am I'm now down to 62.2 and have recorded 0.10" of rainfall. The winds did pick up and were quite active for about 15 minutes as the rain arrived, but my gusts were only in the low 30's. I had multiple gusts of 30 and 31 with one max gust of 32mph. They have quieted down considerably over the last 10 minutes and are now averaging 5-10 with some gusts to 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 The 6z GEFS had a nice uptick in good wintry solutions for CTP for next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 It was a weird weather day yesterday. Walking out side and have the warm hit you in the face just seemed weird. No ice on the river, people still fishing on the river. Talked to a guy and he said he caught a 40" musky yesterday. Turned the AC on in the bedroom last night. My wife said that seemed crazy but she wasn't complaining. I hope we don't get a mess like the GFS is showing. Sure makes snow removal on my lane tough. Would be happy with just all snow event. 000 SXUS71 KCTP 120745 RERIPT RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 238 AM EST SUN JAN 12 2020 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT WILLIAMSPORT PA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 WAS SET AT WILLIAMSPORT PA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 65 SET IN 1975. $$ MARTIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 That equal line at 3:30 am was something else. Now my neighbor’s siding is all coming off and there house is 4’ from mike so it’s banging against mine. I f’n HATE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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