Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Icon has a case of the warminista's (and dry). Actually seems loser to the coast but the whole no cold air thing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Icon has a case of the warminista's (and dry). Actually seems loser to the coast but the whole no cold air thing.... still has the storm.....all we need to worry about right now. I dont mean that in a snippy way, just saying we need the storm and as long as its there and coming from the south, thats the focus to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Icon has a case of the warminista's (and dry). Actually seems loser to the coast but the whole no cold air thing.... Really feel like this is either a 4"+ or nothing at all type of deal. We're not going to snow much less accumulate unless we get under some heavy QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: still has the storm.....all we need to worry about right now. True...it's not dead yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: True...it's not dead yet. Not near dead. Daxx or no daxx we are tracking this one to the edges of the universe. Just doing a quick PBP with no maps because I am busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: True...it's not dead yet. and we are entering the lose it phase on the models. We've seen that before. Not sure if new goofus has that fixed or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Not near dead. Daxx or no daxx we are tracking this one to the edges of the universe. Just doing a quick PBP with no maps because I am busy. speakin of....whered he go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 23 minutes ago, pasnownut said: and we are entering the lose it phase on the models. We've seen that before. Not sure if new goofus has that fixed or not. The "goofus" at 12z is raining on the Atlantic waters and not much else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: The "goofus" at 12z is raining on the Atlantic waters and not much else. It was a 'Gem of a CMC" run though if you like mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: The "goofus" at 12z is raining on the Atlantic waters and not much else. hence the "lose it" phase I referenced. If history serves any purpose in model watching....this should come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 41 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: The "goofus" at 12z is raining on the Atlantic waters and not much else. This is where we are all supposed to chip in with comments like this: 1-Let's see what Dr. No has to say 2-Its only 6 hours until the next run 3-I'm just happy to be in the game 4-The GFS has a bias to not amp systems enough 5-Heights were higher out in front but it did not translate to the surface. 6-Rates will overcome the high surface temps 7-We were never in this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: This is where we are all supposed to chip in with comments like this: 1-Let's see what Dr. No has to say 2-Its only 6 hours until the next run 3-I'm just happy to be in the game 4-The GFS has a bias to not amp systems enough 5-Heights were higher out in front but it did not translate to the surface. 6-Rates will overcome the high surface temps 7-We were never in this one. Lol dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: This is where we are all supposed to chip in with comments like this: 1-Let's see what Dr. No has to say 2-Its only 6 hours until the next run 3-I'm just happy to be in the game 4-The GFS has a bias to not amp systems enough 5-Heights were higher out in front but it did not translate to the surface. 6-Rates will overcome the high surface temps 7-We were never in this one. Dr. No hasn't been Dr. No since, what, 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, canderson said: Dr. No hasn't been Dr. No since, what, 2015? He has been this week...we have about 35 min until we see if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 33 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: This is where we are all supposed to chip in with comments like this: 1-Let's see what Dr. No has to say 2-Its only 6 hours until the next run 3-I'm just happy to be in the game 4-The GFS has a bias to not amp systems enough 5-Heights were higher out in front but it did not translate to the surface. 6-Rates will overcome the high surface temps 7-We were never in this one. Dr. No already said no so all the debbies can just jump to #7, cause 90% of the time they are right....no reasoning needed. FWIW..Im just happy to be tracking something other than warmth. Personally i dont get wound up on run to run shifts....even when they look good for me. I've run out of deaths to die over this sport decades ago. I'm numb to it but love the chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Not near dead. Daxx or no daxx we are tracking this one to the edges of the universe. Just doing a quick PBP with no maps because I am busy. Keep up the good work Bubbler! To me there isn’t much to discuss. It’s been bad, it is bad, and it looks bad! We may luck into something. Hopefully things change but I am not holding my breath. I hope I wasn’t too negative. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, daxx said: Keep up the good work Bubbler! To me there isn’t much to discuss. It’s been bad, it is bad, and it looks bad! We may luck into something. Hopefully things change but I am not holding my breath. I hope I wasn’t too negative. Lol Wow, you posted when the Euro was running...let's see if you have some mojo here. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, daxx said: Keep up the good work Bubbler! To me there isn’t much to discuss. It’s been bad, it is bad, and it looks bad! We may luck into something. Hopefully things change but I am not holding my breath. I hope I wasn’t too negative. Lol Dont hold back.....K? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, daxx said: Keep up the good work Bubbler! To me there isn’t much to discuss. It’s been bad, it is bad, and it looks bad! We may luck into something. Hopefully things change but I am not holding my breath. I hope I wasn’t too negative. Lol I was going to post for you but thought better of it. Turns out you posted exactly what I would have said! (that you would say) "If Brian isn't posting there's a damn good reason for it." (nothing to see here, move along...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Good grief.....shall I take my toys elsewhere.....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Good grief.....shall I take my toys elsewhere.....? No one in this thread is going full meltdown or anything close to it. My response to yours regarding the 12z goofus raining on the Atlantic waters was to SUPPORT what you said about models losing storms at range. That's why I quoted your post in my response... I think that there are plenty of level heads posting here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Good grief.....shall I take my toys elsewhere.....? And I am being sarcastic like usual. Easiest way to blow of disappointment from the bad trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 The Euro trended West with the precip shield but not enough for the LSV. Looks similar to the GFS without doing a map to map compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 53 minutes ago, daxx said: Keep up the good work Bubbler! To me there isn’t much to discuss. It’s been bad, it is bad, and it looks bad! We may luck into something. Hopefully things change but I am not holding my breath. I hope I wasn’t too negative. Lol Ehh, did not work. I was hoping. It was a bit of a downer when I saw the NoGaps go east this morning. I know I am model watching instead of synoptic reasoning but do not have time for much else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Honestly we need it to be strong as well as west due to marginal temps...since next couple weeks look blah hoping a big one in February to help make up for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Honestly we need it to be strong as well as west due to marginal temps...since next couple weeks look blah hoping a big one in February to help make up for it! 100% correct, that's what I've been saying. And it could still happen. Tons of volatility out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 There is our Gorilla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 Still too much progression and positive tilted alignment for my liking with this upcoming storm. The western ridge is pressed east/flattened and it limits the northern branch's ability to dig down and pull this up in time. GFS/Euro bury a lot of energy into Mexico, while the 12z Canadian didn't and offered the most coherent attempt at some interaction..thus being the closest of the bunch at 12z. CTP had a decent discussion about this in their long term this morning. Quote .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Still watching potential for weekend storminess, although consensus of operational models takes a flatter wave out to sea south of the region, sparing PA from a big storm. This is a critical upper air pattern, however, and east coast storminess is largely dependent upon the strength of the upper trof coming onshore into British Columbia on Wednesday, cresting/flattening the western NOAM upper ridge and then digging southward through the Great Basin and Four corners region while additional shortwaves eject into the northern Plains. Degree of phasing between northern and southern stream is highly suspect in this pattern, and the extent of Gulf Coast convection Thu night into Friday may very well determine how close to the coast the sfc low deepens Friday and whether PA gets into any precip on the northern edge of the storm system. For now, it appears to be a miss, but will continue to watch closely. The arrival of a positively- tilted trough into the northeast Saturday night through Sunday may be enough to produce a quick- but insignificant-snowfall and drop temperatures to below normal for a 24 to 36 hour period. As that trough moves off the Atlantic coast, northwest flow, lake effect snow, and gusty winds appear likely to start the first full week in February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 On the subject of extreme weather the Euro now has 3 days in the 60's (LSV) next week with one day threatening 70 followed by the potential for a MECS if not HECS just 36 hours later starting Thursday night (next week). A substantial slp is lifting through the lower Miss Valley while bagginess off the coast of S/E VA suggests the low is getting ready to transfer and lock in the cold air being funneled down through PA from a retreating high. Unlike this weekend the late week storm next week has cold air to work with just to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: On the subject of extreme weather the Euro now has 3 days in the 60's (LSV) next week with one day threatening 70 followed by the potential for a MECS if not HECS just 36 hours later starting Thursday night (next week). A substantial slp is lifting through the lower Miss Valley while bagginess off the coast of S/E VA suggests the low is getting ready to transfer and lock in the cold air being funneled down through PA from a retreating high. Unlike this weekend the late week storm next week has cold air to work with just to our north. Yes. We need everything to align perfectly to have a chance this weekend...at least for next weekend the setup looks more workable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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