Bubbler86 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: With the 12z GFS track you would be plastered in paste. Maybe a bit tenuous for me, but no way that's mostly a rain storm for you. Right? Probably in a literal sense as you cannot trust surface temps that far out but I was looking at it from the point of most systems starting off with the perfect track 5-10 days out and eventually trending north. No room for that to trend any where north. Its almost the very perfect track if we had a deeper cold air base to start. Would probably see waves of heavy snow pumping up into the LSV from the South East. Another alternate way this could work out would be for it to be a bit more south and east when it gets off the coast and intensify further south drawing in colder air while at the same time throwing its QPF blanket over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Probably in a literal sense as you cannot trust surface temps that far out but I was looking at it from the point of most systems starting off with the perfect track 5-10 days out and eventually trending north. No room for that to trend any where north. Its almost the very perfect track if we had a deeper cold air base to start. Would probably see waves of heavy snow pumping up into the LSV from the South East. Another alternate way this could work out would be for it to be a bit more south and east when it gets off the coast and intensify further south drawing in colder air while at the same time throwing its QPF blanket over us. Agreed, and that is why I said if you could take the GFS exactly as depicted...which of course we fully understand will NOT happen that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 954mb...mercy. just thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 28 minutes ago, paweather5 said: At that time frame it don’t look bad. get that column to collapse a bit and verbatim that's plenty close enough to overcome. the good new is that while not a flip to fantastic....a new look is looming in the LR and it should be better for our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Here is the 12Z Euro snow map for this weekend. Thought I would post it just to show how bad it and the GFS did just a few days ago. Its one thing to be off by a hundred or so miles but the Euro showed snow in MD a few days ago and if you discount the 1-2" lollipops around Northern PA and New York the very same shield of snow is near Ottawa Canada. Just a mere 500 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Here is the 12Z Euro snow map for this weekend. Thought I would post it just to show how bad it and the GFS did just a few days ago. Its one thing to be off by a hundred or so miles but the Euro showed snow in MD a few days ago and if you discount the 1-2" lollipops around Northern PA and New York the very same shield of snow is near Ottawa Canada. Just a mere 500 miles. Why we can’t be a excited over day 8 threats like ....ever lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Why we can’t be a excited over day 8 threats like ....ever lol. True but this was a 3-4 day threat. LOL. The map I was referring to was from Tuesday at 12Z with the snow starting Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: True but this was a 3-4 day threat. LOL. The map I was referring to was from Tuesday at 12Z with the snow starting Friday night. Oh no I mean the one for next weekend...this one was within 4 days when it went to pooo lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Uhhh....954mb aint gonna happen. That pressue is 15mb lower than the superstorm's when it was at that same latitude. Fun to imagine though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Uhhh....954mb aint gonna happen. That pressue is 15mb lower than the superstorm's when it was at that same latitude. Fun to imagine though. The Euro has a clipper and cold front passage at the same time. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Here is the 12Z Euro snow map for this weekend. Thought I would post it just to show how bad it and the GFS did just a few days ago. Its one thing to be off by a hundred or so miles but the Euro showed snow in MD a few days ago and if you discount the 1-2" lollipops around Northern PA and New York the very same shield of snow is near Ottawa Canada. Just a mere 500 miles. Yet another Midwest storm. It’s essentially a Nina winter with a more messed up presentation and same tendency to torch and drive the SE ridge. Despite what models a few days out say, that’s the overall pattern and they correct to it until the PNA changes or we see improvements to the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Here is the 12Z Euro snow map for this weekend. Thought I would post it just to show how bad it and the GFS did just a few days ago. Its one thing to be off by a hundred or so miles but the Euro showed snow in MD a few days ago and if you discount the 1-2" lollipops around Northern PA and New York the very same shield of snow is near Ottawa Canada. Just a mere 500 miles. Can’t hit the like button but good post. No cold above us.....Miller Bs just suck more than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Can’t hit the like button but good post. No cold above us.....Miller Bs just suck more than normal. This was Miller F (school grade scale) or Miller Z (Alphabetical Scale). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 27 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yet another Midwest storm. It’s essentially a Nina winter with a more messed up presentation and same tendency to torch and drive the SE ridge. Despite what models a few days out say, that’s the overall pattern and they correct to it until the PNA changes or we see improvements to the NAO. Yep, its been two years of this parade. It's almost like we need to forecast on a grading scale because its not acceptable to just say we cannot forecast out beyond a few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Luckily not many bought into this weekends dud to begin with....too much can go wrong tends will go wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 39 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: This was Miller F (school grade scale) or Miller Z (Alphabetical Scale). looking early on at 18z happy hour kickoff, one can see the effects of the HP up in Canada....it makes it to NE PA and its underwhelming for them. pun intended....that WILL cut it get it....cut it ya know cut to friggin SE WISCONSIN. UGGHHHHHHH 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 IF we cant laugh shit off....what else ya gonna do? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 at least wear and tear/ maintenance on my sleds has been cheap this year. My grass is pretty F'd up tho..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Luckily not many bought into this weekends dud to begin with....too much can go wrong tends will go wrong. Unless you like rain then it seems things always go your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: IF we cant laugh shit off....what else ya gonna do? Maybe we'll watch on the sidelines going forward as a couple of southern sliders bury the Carolinas. Why not?...those good folk have waited years for snow. It's their turn! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Maybe we'll watch on the sidelines going forward as a couple of southern sliders bury the Carolinas. Why not?...those good folk have waited years for snow. It's their turn! Uh....If that happens, I'm going down to the southeastern forum and virtually throat punchin someone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 We have just been in this pattern we can't get away from...To bad it's not a snow pattern. Not trusting any models 3-5 days out anymore this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Uh....If that happens, I'm going down to the southeastern forum and virtually throat punchin someone. Or you could rent them your snowmobile and profit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Or you could rent them your snowmobile and profit? Heeeyyyyyyyyy now your talkin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Thank you, [mention=4667]Jns2183[/mention], so much for that incredible report!! My memories of the 1960's begin in the mid 60's when I was around 6. I will always remember the stories my father told me of the winter of '60-'61. I was only 1, but he took a picture of me sitting on top of the biggest snow mound beside our driveway I've ever seen. He also did tell me they had to dig tunnels to get around the back yard the snow was so deep. (This was roughly 15 miles west of EWR.) I remember how excited I was when a snow day would cancel school. In our small town the fire department would blow the whistle 6 times at 7:00am and again at 7:30am to announce the closing. Since the town was only 1 square mile everyone could hear the whistle. How creative was that? The one other noteworthy memory I have is from the summer of 1966. I think that was one of the hottest summers of all time. It was the end of 2nd grade for me in mid June of 1966. I was 7. It was so hot in our building that our teacher just shut off the lights and had us all lay our heads down on our desks and remain quiet. What a combination of cold and heat during that decade. The same could be said 11 years later in the summer of 1977 when in July Central Park broke it's all-time high temp record when it hit 106. Then, remember what happened that following winter of '77-'78. One of the biggest Miller-B's to strike the northeast that February. Great memories for sure. I'll be recalling them over this weekend during our cold rainstorm! PS>>Hope you or your family member is OK!You certainly were right about June 1966. It was>=90. 14 days>=95. 6 days>=100. 1 dayAverage high 87.7Average low 61.4Mean 74.6Departure 3.1Having such a huge range in temperature daily, 26.3 vs average of 19 brings to mind dessert airmass and dry dry dry. Turns out we recorded only 0.07” for month. Driest June by 0.51” and3rd driest month ever. Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy56 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Ahhhh.. just re-reading the Jan 22-23, 2016 thread to lift my spirits in these trying times. What a behemoth. Can not believe that was 4 years ago already. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 49 minutes ago, Jonesy56 said: Ahhhh.. just re-reading the Jan 22-23, 2016 thread to lift my spirits in these trying times. What a behemoth. Can not believe that was 4 years ago already. Aside from the 30" snow, my fav part was Eskimo Joe cancelling the storm the day before. The NAM, somehow, nailed that storm in every possible aspect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Lol that was a tough storm to experience...we had .6 inches while selinsgrove had 12 to 16. The March storm a couple years ago made that less painful lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 13 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Lol that was a tough storm to experience...we had .6 inches while selinsgrove had 12 to 16. The March storm a couple years ago made that less painful lol. I had 20 inches and I think Scranton had 1. It was one of the rare times where the sharp cut off was north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 3 hours ago, canderson said: Aside from the 30" snow, my fav part was Eskimo Joe cancelling the storm the day before. The NAM, somehow, nailed that storm in every possible aspect. Yes, that was a classic! It was 1 Euro run a couple of days before the storm that gave us “only” 10- 15 inches of snow instead of 2 feet plus, & he cancelled the storm! Those NAM runs were epic! I remember saying to people that I’d never seen amounts like that show up on a weather model for my backyard on the day of a storm, & then it verified! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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