Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

[Bubbler86]

GFS is an I81 mauler but considering its recent demotion....

 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z GFS was a nice improvement for the I-81 & Rt.15 corridors.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z EPS provided a little uptick in snow amounts for the LSV. 

Also still some different possibilities with the placement & track of the secondary.

[canderson]

That Lancaster county gradient is hilarious. 

[Gosnow]

9 minutes ago, canderson said:

That Lancaster county gradient is hilarious. 

We believe in inclusion of all colors and bands for those who want to those who want not.

[Voyager]

11 minutes ago, canderson said:

That Lancaster county gradient is hilarious. 

That used to be the Schuylkill County gradient a few years back. Quite a few storms have given Allentown 12+ and Tamaqua 1-4...lol

[Superstorm]

This storm still has my interest....even being in Lancaster County.

I would be giddy if I was in State College.


.

[Itstrainingtime]

34 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

This storm still has my interest....even being in Lancaster County.

I would be giddy if I was in State College.


.

Our hope lies on the tail end...sort of like what happened on 12/25/2002.

I think you brought that up earlier...:)

[WmsptWx]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z EPS provided a little uptick in snow amounts for the LSV. 

Also still some different possibilities with the placement & track of the secondary.

I'm going to float on the lake with that sharp cutoff from heavy to not heavy stuff.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

This storm still has my interest....even being in Lancaster County.

I would be giddy if I was in State College.


.

I don’t know about giddy. Hopeful-sure. Lots can still go wrong. The late transfer issue is the biggest risk. It can still pretty easily go to a NE PA and upstate NY special. 

[Blizzard of 93]

I can’t wait until we extrapolate the end of the NAM run again in a few minutes...

[MAG5035]

Well giddy or not, this threat is now inside D4 and the 2-3 straight days of that stripe of 6"+ in pretty much the same section of C-PA on the Euro EPS has my attention.  

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

Well giddy or not, this threat is now inside D4 and the 2-3 straight days of that stripe of 6"+ in pretty much the same section of C-PA on the Euro EPS has my attention.  

Yes, same here with the EPS for several runs showing 3 inches of snow around the Harrisburg area.

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, canderson said:

That Lancaster county gradient is hilarious. 

Not if ones lives in Lancaster County. 

[pasnownut]

32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I can’t wait until we extrapolate the end of the NAM run again in a few minutes...

I won’t....I promise. 
 

I was in a weakened state. Sorry for mucking up a snow thread. 
 

[Blizzard of 93]

15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I won’t....I promise. 
 

I was in a weakened state. Sorry for mucking up a snow thread. 
 

I was just having a little fun !

This one will come down to the wire for us in the LSV. Hopefully it trends right to get us all in the game.

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I was just having a little fun !

This one will come down to the wire for us in the LSV. Hopefully it trends right to get us all in the game.

Yeah I know.
Some kind of cold mechanism has to show its hand soon or a much earlier transfer needs to occur to get 850s to crash for LSV to join the party IMO. I just don’t see another way. 
 

Isnt it weird to see me being all Debbie? 

Dont worry... I don’t like it either. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah I know.
Some kind of cold mechanism has to show its hand soon or a much earlier transfer needs to occur to get 850s to crash for LSV to join the party IMO. I just don’t see another way. 
 

Isnt it weird to see me being all Debbie? 

Dont worry... I don’t like it either. 

It's good to be realistic though.

[Bubbler86]

Those are some intense rates for North Central PA on the GFS.  Someone is going to get a payday off this...will be interesting to watch evolve even if not for me.  Cumberland County gets a big jackpot on the western side.

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Those are some intense rates for North Central PA on the GFS.  Someone is going to get a payday off this...will be interesting to watch evolve even if not for me.  Cumberland County gets a big jackpot on the western side.

Yeah if that look holds it’s a nice weekend to head north. GFS has been pretty consistent with LP just SE of us. 
actually rolling back through the last couple runs I’d say it looks better the last few. WSPT is sittin perty for this one. 

[Blizzard of 93]

16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Those are some intense rates for North Central PA on the GFS.  Someone is going to get a payday off this...will be interesting to watch evolve even if not for me.  Cumberland County gets a big jackpot on the western side.

The western & northern parts of our counties (Perry for me & Franklin for you) also get crushed by the 0z GFS, along with Western Cumberland County as you mentioned.

It is so close to getting the rest of the LSV in the game.

This run @Bubbler86 , @sauss06 , @CarlislePaWx & @canderson and l need less than a 25 mile shift to get in the 6 inch plus snow range according to the GFS.

In the meantime, the bullseye appears to be @MAG5035 & @2001kx , with honorable mention to @Wmsptwx

We still have 3 days to shift the bullseye around & hopefully we all get in a piece of the snow action!

 

[Santa Clause]

Lol jm1220 must still be traumatized by true central pa...pops in often to remind us what will go wrong and he’s usually right.

[CarlislePaWx]

Thanks for the blow-up map, @Blizzard of 93.  There's no way the model will hit the exact amounts with perfection 3 1/2 days out.  Talk about a gradient in my county...Newburg gets 12" while New Cumberland gets 1" !!!  I think I've been around the 4" mark now for several runs, including this one.  This one could be a real nail-biter.

[Santa Clause]

Gem has only advisory totals in pa mainly far north and west central.

[2001kx]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The western & northern parts of our counties (Perry for me & Franklin for you) also get crushed by the 0z GFS, along with Western Cumberland County as you mentioned.

It is so close to getting the rest of the LSV in the game.

This run @Bubbler86 , @sauss06 , @CarlislePaWx & @canderson and l need less than a 25 mile shift to get in the 6 inch plus snow range according to the GFS.

In the meantime, the bullseye appears to be @MAG5035 & @2001kx , with honorable mention to @Wmsptwx

We still have 3 days to shift the bullseye around & hopefully we all get in a piece of the snow action!

 

Yeah...lock that run in please.

[jm1220]

6 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol jm1220 must still be traumatized by true central pa...pops in often to remind us what will go wrong and he’s usually right.

Like I said I’m hopeful lol. So far so good for a nice event for you guys at least. I just learned to believe it when I see it. I lived through many false alarms there haha.

[Voyager]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Like I said I’m hopeful lol. So far so good for a nice event for you guys at least. I just learned to believe it when I see it. I lived through many false alarms there haha.

Many is an understatement...

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z Euro & 6z GFS put the I-81 corridor out of the game for the weekend snow.

They still do like @MAG5035 & @2001kx

Still 3 days for shifts to determine the final storm development & track.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Great forecast discussion by CTP this morning. If you are near I -81 or north & west of that, you are still in the game.

Here is CTP’s Discussion:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Focus in the long term remains on the increasing likelihood of a highly elevation dependent snow event impacting the region beginning Friday night and continuing through much of Sat night as a Miller-B type surface scenario accompanies a well defined upper low that will develop across the Mid Miss valley and track east across Southern or Central PA Sat night. The 700 mb center is progged to move east along I-80 in Ohio and PA. After a mainly cloudy and rather mild Friday with temps in the upper 30s to around 40F, the boundary layer is expected to start out warm enough for primarily rain right at the onset in most areas. However, layer cooling associated with increasing uvvel, and evap cooling as the precip falls into the dry LLVl air will help to mix or change the precip over to wet snow across parts of Central and likely most or all of Ncent PA. Height falls and 1000-500 mb thicknesses falling to below 540 DAM will allow the precip to change over to snow, that will fall at a moderate to heavy rate at times late Friday night and Saturday. Of particular interest will be later Saturday morning into Sat afternoon when elevated instability being transported north toward South-central PA and areas of fairly strong 850-700 mb frontogenesis could lead to some 1-2 inch per hour, heavy snowfall rates anywhere northwest of the I-81 corridor. Critical thickness and 850 mb zero wet bulb line will exist somewhere between I-99 and I-81 during the mid to late morning hours Saturday, and this is where the greatest uncertainty is with respect to precip type and intensity. Again, we`re messaging the point that the initially warm boundary layer and periods of strong, dynamic forcing will lead to a very elevation dependent snowfall across Central and Northern PA with notably lower chances for significant snow near and to the SE of I-81. Snow accums by late Sat night could approach 8 inches at elevations over 2000 ft MSL in northern PA with 4-6 inches possible at the same elevations in Central PA. Accums in the valleys (depending on their exact elevation) will vary from 3-5 inches in the north to between 1-3 inches in most of Central PA. The threat for any sleet and/or FZRA is very minimal at this point. Increased pops for Friday night into Sat as a result of the anomalous southeasterly low level jet (over 50 kts at 850 mb) and plume of Atlantic moisture overrunning a dome of cold/stable air east of the Appalachians. This justifies categorical POPs Friday night into Saturday. The latest GEFS mean qpf ranges from 0.6 to 1 inch across the forecast area by Saturday evening.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Great forecast discussion by CTP this morning. If you are near I -81 or north & west of that, you are still in the game.

Here is CTP’s Discussion:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Focus in the long term remains on the increasing likelihood of a highly elevation dependent snow event impacting the region beginning Friday night and continuing through much of Sat night as a Miller-B type surface scenario accompanies a well defined upper low that will develop across the Mid Miss valley and track east across Southern or Central PA Sat night. The 700 mb center is progged to move east along I-80 in Ohio and PA. After a mainly cloudy and rather mild Friday with temps in the upper 30s to around 40F, the boundary layer is expected to start out warm enough for primarily rain right at the onset in most areas. However, layer cooling associated with increasing uvvel, and evap cooling as the precip falls into the dry LLVl air will help to mix or change the precip over to wet snow across parts of Central and likely most or all of Ncent PA. Height falls and 1000-500 mb thicknesses falling to below 540 DAM will allow the precip to change over to snow, that will fall at a moderate to heavy rate at times late Friday night and Saturday. Of particular interest will be later Saturday morning into Sat afternoon when elevated instability being transported north toward South-central PA and areas of fairly strong 850-700 mb frontogenesis could lead to some 1-2 inch per hour, heavy snowfall rates anywhere northwest of the I-81 corridor. Critical thickness and 850 mb zero wet bulb line will exist somewhere between I-99 and I-81 during the mid to late morning hours Saturday, and this is where the greatest uncertainty is with respect to precip type and intensity. Again, we`re messaging the point that the initially warm boundary layer and periods of strong, dynamic forcing will lead to a very elevation dependent snowfall across Central and Northern PA with notably lower chances for significant snow near and to the SE of I-81. Snow accums by late Sat night could approach 8 inches at elevations over 2000 ft MSL in northern PA with 4-6 inches possible at the same elevations in Central PA. Accums in the valleys (depending on their exact elevation) will vary from 3-5 inches in the north to between 1-3 inches in most of Central PA. The threat for any sleet and/or FZRA is very minimal at this point. Increased pops for Friday night into Sat as a result of the anomalous southeasterly low level jet (over 50 kts at 850 mb) and plume of Atlantic moisture overrunning a dome of cold/stable air east of the Appalachians. This justifies categorical POPs Friday night into Saturday. The latest GEFS mean qpf ranges from 0.6 to 1 inch across the forecast area by Saturday evening.

This is shaping up to be on of the storms where LSV's have to be happy for the folks in the mountains who miss out on most of the big coastal.  Going to take a fairly big shift at this point in the game to get LSV back into it.  50-100 miles.  When they say N/W of the I81 corridor I do not think they literally mean I81 they mean the whole valley encompassing I81....N/W of there.