Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 The 0z Euro ticked a little colder & has more front end snow on Saturday before the mixing later in the afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, 2001kx said: The drive home from butler pa today was the worst drive of my life...scary on i80 with the squalls at night...20mph with flasher on...scary. Glad you made it home ok. I noticed you live in Clearfield Pa. My Stouffer and very distant Shawnee roots are from Clearfield and Du bois Pa. I Still have a lot of my family tree out your way.Beautiful country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Just got home from the Flyers game and ran into a heavy snow shower between Valley Forge and Morgantown. Everything was covered except for the driving lanes. Wasn't expecting that! Glad your safe and saw some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 The opening take from CTP this morning: Quote .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... With the Saturday storm system coming into range of the hi-res models, we are starting to see a better picture of how the storm may pan out. The 3km NAM depicts a narrow band of moderate to potentially heavy snow developing in Ohio Friday night and pushing northeastward into the Laurels by about 09z-12z Sat. This band of snow is collocated with frontogenesis in the 700-600 mb layer at the leading edge of mid-level warm air advection. Expect some ascent above this layer, including through the dendritic growth zone. If this solution pans out, there would likely be a 2-3 hour period of moderate snow at the onset of snow on Saturday morning. HREF shows potential for 0.5-1.0 inch/hr rates with this band. Some lower-res guidance also supports potential for a band of mod snow at onset. Limiting factor for snow intensity at onset may be dry air at low levels. Model consensus supports a roughly 8-hour period of moderate overrunning precipitation during the daylight hours of Saturday associated with passage of anomalous low level jet. The main area of model spread and forecast uncertainty revolves around how quickly warm air aloft works in. Some of the latest operational guidance supports a rapid change to mixed precip over all of the area during the time of heaviest precip. However, the NBM max wet bulbs aloft indicate precipitation remaining all snow across the northern mountains through early evening. WPC guidance supports advisory type snowfall across a large portion of the area. However, given the current uncertainty, have decided to hold off on advisories until a new set of guidance arrives later today. A look at WPC Superensemble plumes indicates plenty of spread with mean snowfall by Sat evening right around bottom end advisory levels. Expect travel conditions to improve Saturday evening, as precipitation tapers off and temperatures rise above freezing in many locations ahead of approaching cold/occluded front. Lake enhanced, orographic snow showers will resume later Saturday night across the Allegheny Plateau, as cold air sweeps in behind departing storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I was not wrong I will be honest I did not like being told I was wrong when I know I am not but because it was the nut I did my best to swallow it but something just was not right so I went and found and looked over . I noticed your Bull Shiting friend lives right next to Middeltown 2.9 NW that is reporting in at 5.8 and its a lot closer to the city of Harrisburg than the other stations . The other stations that report totals for Harrisburg are farther north but Middletown 2.9 is in the city of Harrisburg. The 5.8 is way more realistic for that distance. The stations locations are in the link. Eat shit Canderson and find a life stop fukn with my totals or I come and eat you my man. If I did that shit to you guys about your area you wouldn't be happy either. Injoy the storm my friends https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/daily-snow/PA/snowfall/20200109 HARRISBURG 1 NE DAUPHIN M M M M M M M M 0.0 M HARRISBURG 1.6 NNE DAUPHIN M M M M M M M 4.3 M M HARRISBURG 5.9 NE DAUPHIN M M M M M M M 4.0 M M HARRISBURG 6.0 NE DAUPHIN T T M M T M M M M M MIDDLETOWN 2.9 NW DAUPHIN M M M M M T M 5.8 0.3 M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 11 hours ago, canderson said: Wait what? @sauss06 and I usually have identical totals as we are equally close to the river and probably identical elevation (clippers differ, the city can somehow do well there x must be the cut in the mountains), and he works in Harrisburg and confirmed my report. I’m not gonna argue about .5” snow, that’s meaningless. That Jan 2016 storm where MDT had 30.2” was insane - god bless the NAM for that one! I lost ability to measure accurately over iirc 24” due to a plow down my alley. God that storm was amazing, @dj88 usually gets more as he is up the mountain, that lucky duck. Your reporting is correct. You and i are the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 well the only station actually close to the city has you fellows at 5.8 proof is above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Flatheadsickness said: well the only station actually in the city has you fellows at 5.8 proof is above. I'm not so sure why you are so aggressive it about it. Over the years @canderson and my numbers are always close to each other. He lives in the city, i live a mile away on the west shore. And i will add, @djr5001 who i haven't seen in awhile lives up on the mountain behind me and his numbers always were close, with 1/2 or so. Believe me when i say, i'm not losing sleep over what you think we should be reporting to the group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Looking over hi res/mesos from overnight still appears to be on track w/ my gut from a couple days ago. If one looks at WRF suite you'll see a bit more focus on front end loving before we taint. Once we taint, it appears to be a small window (speaking relative to LSV locals) for that to happen before column cools (which most precip is done by then so snizzle/flurries at the end. I've been riding this frozen ship for a couple days and will take the wheel wherever it goes. This is the reason I'm here, and as Flathead suggested, it is a place to share ideas and gain insight. I've got broad enough shoulders and a firm base to support them, so if I fail....i can take it. Trainer and i said 2-4 call from a few days back and think its a good call. NC mountains look to be winners w/ best go at 6". TGIFF gang. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Looking over hi res/mesos from overnight still appears to be on track w/ my gut from a couple days ago. If one looks at WRF suite you'll see a bit more focus on front end loving before we taint. Once we taint, it appears to be a small window (speaking relative to LSV locals) for that to happen before column cools (which most precip is done by then so snizzle/flurries at the end. I've been riding this frozen ship for a couple days and will take the wheel wherever it goes. This is the reason I'm here, and as Flathead suggested, it is a place to share ideas and gain insight. I've got broad enough shoulders and a firm base to support them, so if I fail....i can take it. Trainer and i said 2-4 call from a few days back and think its a good call. NC mountains look to be winners w/ best go at 6". TGIFF gang. Thanks for tracking for us. 2” would be an acceptable event for me. Like the idea of having 5-7 days of snow cover to make it feel like winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 16 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I'm not so sure why you are so aggressive it about it. Over the years @canderson and my numbers are always close to each other. He lives in the city, i live a mile away on the west shore. And i will add, @djr5001 who i haven't seen in awhile lives up on the mountain behind me and his numbers always were close, with 1/2 or so. Believe me when i say, i'm not losing sleep over what you think we should be reporting to the group. @Sausss06 The aggression in not at you No offence but you live farther form the city than I do. Newcumberland is closer than Summerdale and if thats where you live you are a lot farther than a mile from the city I dont doubt you had less where you are at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I just looked at the map again to make sure I am not triping. You are much closer to the 4.0 station . I am kindly thinking you should recheck your distance form canderson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 26 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Looking over hi res/mesos from overnight still appears to be on track w/ my gut from a couple days ago. If one looks at WRF suite you'll see a bit more focus on front end loving before we taint. Once we taint, it appears to be a small window (speaking relative to LSV locals) for that to happen before column cools (which most precip is done by then so snizzle/flurries at the end. I've been riding this frozen ship for a couple days and will take the wheel wherever it goes. This is the reason I'm here, and as Flathead suggested, it is a place to share ideas and gain insight. I've got broad enough shoulders and a firm base to support them, so if I fail....i can take it. Trainer and i said 2-4 call from a few days back and think its a good call. NC mountains look to be winners w/ best go at 6". TGIFF gang. Bring it home brother Anyone gauge the winds over night? Holy &*@# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 The winds yesterday at my location were one of the worst that I experienced, last night not too bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Flatheadsickness said: I just looked at the map again to make sure I am not triping. You are much closer to the 4.0 station . I am kindly thinking you should recheck your distance form canderson my man, this will be my last post on this. We @canderson are separated ABOUT a mile the way the bird flys. Back in my day before throwing my shoulder out i would hit his house with a baseball so you say i should have 4" and i said i wrote that up as 3.5" BFD cheers bro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 @Flatheadsickness I love your passion for the weather and accuracy of measuring snow. My suggestion would be to become a spotter for NWS to make your obs known. Snow amounts can vary at short distances. MDT at the airport itself sits at 312’ right along the river. Any gain in elevation is going to increase snow amounts. It’s not my fight to fight, but this forum is getting clogged up with your posts and becoming distracting from what this forum stands for. Best of luck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Bring it home brother Anyone gauge the winds over night? Holy &*@# Had a gust of 47. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Had a gust of 47. Not bad I need to get another weather station. I think our wind was worse from about 730pm up to about 530 this morning then all day yesterday. Looking at temps for tomorrow, to me it looks like we're below freezing until late tomorrow evening. am i looking at that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 The hell happened on here last night? I woke up to a notification and a message from Flathead that I have no idea what it means. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 The hell happened on here last night? I woke up to a notification and a message from Flathead that I have no idea what it means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I need to get another weather station. I think our wind was worse from about 730pm up to about 530 this morning then all day yesterday. Looking at temps for tomorrow, to me it looks like we're below freezing until late tomorrow evening. am i looking at that right? Yes indeed, CAD always wins. Lows tonight in the 15-20 range should lock things in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 The 6z GFS & 6z Euro both agreed on bringing 2 or more inches of snow from roughly the turnpike on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: Powered sugar and pb? I’ll have to try that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Measuring snow from one location will vary from one location to another. I used to ask a coworker how much rain he had and we compared it sometimes he had more than I did and sometimes he had less then me. And we live 1 mile as the crow flies to his place. I think the same can be said with snowfall. Your not gonna get an equal amount put down exactly everywhere. Just like Thunderstorms in a 1/4 mile range someone will get 1.5in and the next person will get 0. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I need to get another weather station. I think our wind was worse from about 730pm up to about 530 this morning then all day yesterday. Looking at temps for tomorrow, to me it looks like we're below freezing until late tomorrow evening. am i looking at that right? So do I, but in reality, I should have sent this one back 8 years ago after I bought it. The anemometer has never worked right. There is no way, with the window rattling, house shaking wind I had yesterday, that the highest gust was only 16 mph. Even back during Sandy, I couldn't get a gust higher than 24 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 25 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: The hell happened on here last night? I woke up to a notification and a message from Flathead that I have no idea what it means. .Your Epic comment to C anderson .If you dont remember you might want to go back a look . Do you really not remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Oh dear Christ. Now it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 24 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Powered sugar and pb? I’ll have to try that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 26 minutes ago, anotherman said: This is the kind of stuff that makes me want to blow the thread up . I was just getting calmed down now I am pretty sure I am being called a crack head . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Oh dear Christ. Now it makes sense. once again I got made fun of over that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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