Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

[WmsptWx]

2 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

should do a road trip to Jackson Hole. 105" and counting for the month of January 

Jackson Hole was what the "ten years of age and under" wing of Neverland Ranch was called. 

 

I'll see myself out. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

should do a road trip to Jackson Hole. 105" and counting for the month of January 

It's been feast or famine out west...Mammoth Mountain in the Sierra had nearly 700" last winter, so far for this January they've had an inch. 

[canderson]

Jackson Hole is drop-dead gorgeous any time of the year. 

[pasnownut]

Looks like the 12z GFS continues a better trend w/ LP and 500's as it continues to flatten the ridging.  If this trend continues, I could see this being mostly frozen for many.  at 114, you can see a better placed HP and slightly stronger, which shows a better CAD structure.  Nice start to lunch.

more to come..........

 

[WmsptWx]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Looks like the 12z GFS continues a better trend w/ LP and 500's as it continues to flatten the ridging.  If this trend continues, I could see this being mostly frozen for many.  at 114, you can see a better placed HP and slightly stronger, which shows a better CAD structure.  Nice start to lunch.

more to come..........

 

Holy god, it's noon. Boy, time sure flies when you're chained to a desk. 

[sauss06]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Jackson Hole is drop-dead gorgeous any time of the year. 

Its on my list. Just have to figure out how many MLB stadiums we can incorporate 

[canderson]

12z Euro looks pretty similar to me, except the flip happens sooner I think so it's less snow up front. 

[WmsptWx]

CTP took to the masochism device (Facebook) a while ago and begun making the mongrel horde aware, therefore setting up their week-long torture. 

 

As a kid, I thought hot candle wax on the back was the height of pleasureous pain. These nerds out here getting pitchforks shoved up they cracks. Hardcore, man.

[Voyager]

16 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

CTP took to the masochism device (Facebook) a while ago and begun making the mongrel horde aware, therefore setting up their week-long torture.

 

And they brought the hideous "Rubik's Cube" graphic out as well, which is about the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen...

[2001kx]

55 minutes ago, Voyager said:

 

And they brought the hideous "Rubik's Cube" graphic out as well, which is about the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen...

Yeah that thing is hard to look at..

[WmsptWx]

Guys. I'm a graphic designer. That graphic is stupid and hard to understand.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z GFS & GEFS look great for CTP snow on Saturday. 

This has the chance to be our best event of the season...so far...

Also, the good pattern change is just beginning. It would be fantastic to get out of the bad pattern on Friday & immediately get snow on Saturday. Many times, we have to wait for snow after the pattern flips. 

The pattern looks really good for the rest of the month into at least early February.

 

[MAG5035]

The overall big picture features and their positioning for our end of the week system remain pretty firm today on the models... strong high placed to the north and a significant system tracking to the Lower Lakes with a decent chance at a nice front end snowfall for most of the area as well as a to be determined period of mixing. 12z GFS and CMC were the snowier models today with the Euro solution focusing its significant snowfall (6+) from I-80 north. As CTP mentioned in their disco this afternoon, those details will start really getting hashed out once the high res short range models are in range and in the fold with determining a consensus... so I wouldn't get too bent out of shape on run to run or model vs model differences.

Given the pattern and a really good consensus track-wise on the models at what's still a pretty good lead time, I don't anticipate much deviation in the eventual track of this system into the Lakes. The strong high to the north will be a key for the front end snowfall and I believe the timing of the occlusion of the storm system along with how well the CAD holds will determine if the rest of the event is mostly on the frozen/freezing side. A track into the eastern lakes already implies our region we'll likely get slotted anyways late in the system after whatever damage is done. It does look at the moment that any warm surge into the area will be relatively brief. I mentioned some shades of last year's Jan 19th storm with this potential storm in my post this morning. This one as is right now would be a bit more NW (last year tracked into PA) but I believe would have a stronger high in place if I recall correctly. 

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

The overall big picture features and their positioning for our end of the week system remain pretty firm today on the models... strong high placed to the north and a significant system tracking to the Lower Lakes with a decent chance at a nice front end snowfall for most of the area as well as a to be determined period of mixing. 12z GFS and CMC were the snowier models today with the Euro solution focusing its significant snowfall (6+) from I-80 north. As CTP mentioned in their disco this afternoon, those details will start really getting hashed out once the high res short range models are in range and in the fold with determining a consensus... so I wouldn't get too bent out of shape on run to run or model vs model differences.

Given the pattern and a really good consensus track-wise on the models at what's still a pretty good lead time, I don't anticipate much deviation in the eventual track of this system into the Lakes. The strong high to the north will be a key for the front end snowfall and I believe the timing of the occlusion of the storm system along with how well the CAD holds will determine if the rest of the event is mostly on the frozen/freezing side. A track into the eastern lakes already implies our region we'll likely get slotted anyways late in the system after whatever damage is done. It does look at the moment that any warm surge into the area will be relatively brief. I mentioned some shades of last year's Jan 19th storm with this potential storm in my post this morning. This one as is right now would be a bit more NW (last year tracked into PA) but I believe would have a stronger high in place if I recall correctly. 

I may not always be the happiest person when I see that you posted, because it usually means some sort of wintry weather is on the way... ,  but you, sir, are a treasure to this sub-forum with your knowledge and willingness to share it. I think I speak for all when I say, thanks Mike, we are glad you are here!

[canderson]

15 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I may not always be the happiest person when I see that you posted, because it usually means some sort of wintry weather is on the way... ,  but you, sir, are a treasure to this sub-forum with your knowledge and willingness to share it. I think I speak for all when I say, thanks Mike, we are glad you are here!

Here, here!

[Flatheadsickness]

3 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

Guys. I'm a graphic designer. That graphic is stupid and hard to understand.

I have been doing my own graphics for my waterslides I put on my  custom fishing rod builds. Looks cheep and unprofessional with my lack of know how and shitty software and hardware. I need some professional graphics help. I am currently in a patent battel but when I get that figured out I will need a good graphics company.

[Flatheadsickness]

The Saturday setup looks like what we saw late September and October with  well anchored cad just with more cold available to the high. I knew and know the cycle will return with good timing this year . No shortage of energy and turbulence since 2010 just bad cycle timeing. 

[canderson]

The 0z GFS is a pretty, pretty run fur the LSV.

[CarlislePaWx]

12 minutes ago, canderson said:

The 0z GFS is a pretty, pretty run fur the LSV.

Yep.  5-7" for MDT.  Lock it in now!

[MAG5035]

2 hours ago, Voyager said:

I may not always be the happiest person when I see that you posted, because it usually means some sort of wintry weather is on the way... ,  but you, sir, are a treasure to this sub-forum with your knowledge and willingness to share it. I think I speak for all when I say, thanks Mike, we are glad you are here!

Thank you for the kind words, I really appreciate it. I wish we still had some other met presence in here. I know a couple of our other regulars have moved to other places. 

[MAG5035]

5 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

Guys. I'm a graphic designer. That graphic is stupid and hard to understand.

Remember the graphics they put out for an Alberta clipper the one time (awhile ago) that were straight out of the Microsoft Office clip-art section?

[Blizzard of 93]

28 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Yep.  5-7" for MDT.  Lock it in now!

 

42 minutes ago, canderson said:

The 0z GFS is a pretty, pretty run fur the LSV.

It sure was a very nice 0z GFS run !

Here is a panel that @Itstrainingtime , @pasnownut & @daxx would also  approve, along with the 10:1 & Kuchera ratio snow maps.

[MAG5035]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

It sure was a very nice 0z GFS run !

Here is a panel that @Itstrainingtime , @pasnownut & @daxx would also  approve, along with the 10:1 & Kuchera ratio snow maps.

 

The strong high pressure being progged certainly bodes well for significant front end snows in the Sus Valley... reaching 1045mb as it moves through southern Ontario into southern Quebec. Even through the high eventually retreats as the storm presses through the lakes, that's going to be tough to displace low level cold east of the Laurel's.  

[Blizzard of 93]

Here are the 0z Euro & Canadian.

There is growing model consensus that most of CTP could be in store for several inches of snow on Saturday.

[MAG5035]

The money frame on the 0z Euro as it regards to 6 hr QPF (hr 120) in order of surface, 6 hr max 2m temp, 925mb, and 850mb levels. Also added 24hr snowfall ending at hr 126 using the Cobb method. Still at a pretty long range yet but just showing how I start breaking these complicated snow-mix setups down in the shorter term. The <0ºC 925mb temps are pretty well anchored and the 850mb level holds out fairly well despite a pretty strong SW flow aloft. The hr 126 frame shows the brief warmth surge at all levels but that's after most of the precip has exited. 2m temps reach the low-mid 30s region wide according to the 0z Euro. Also note the surface, 925, and 850 lows are stacked (near the same position) indicating a maturing storm and the occlusion I've been mentioning that will likely keep the warm surge brief and muted. 

As for snowfall the Euro overall seems to remain a bit north/northeast with it's heavy snow axis vs the GFS and esp Canadian, or at least a bit limited in the southern tier in the central counties, likely implying the Euro is indicating some kind of a mix (likely sleet) possibly knocking the totals down a bit. At any rate, a lot to unpack the next few days. Another thing to consider is if models continue to show the high at the 1045ish strength they've been showing, this may trend a bit colder yet as this gets into the short range model's range. 

 

 

[Flatheadsickness]

Thanks Mr. Glunt

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Yes, great post @MAG5035 

The 6z GFS & GEFS held serve & look very good for our Saturday snow.

 

[jm1220]

I’ve seen way too many times living in State College promising setups like these and good snow maps this far in advance get cut back in the end due to the bigger warm push aloft than expected and more sleet/ice. It could happen if the snow advances like a wall and can hold back the warming 750-800mb layer but I wouldn’t count on heavy snow for more than 3-4 hours. If the 850 low goes north of you, it’s essentially guaranteed that a good chunk of the storm will be sleet or non-snow. The plus is that the sleet lasts a lot longer on the ground than snow when temps warm up. 

[Itstrainingtime]

42 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’ve seen way too many times living in State College promising setups like these and good snow maps this far in advance get cut back in the end due to the bigger warm push aloft than expected and more sleet/ice. It could happen if the snow advances like a wall and can hold back the warming 750-800mb layer but I wouldn’t count on heavy snow for more than 3-4 hours. If the 850 low goes north of you, it’s essentially guaranteed that a good chunk of the storm will be sleet or non-snow. The plus is that the sleet lasts a lot longer on the ground than snow when temps warm up. 

This...is so VERY true. I argued this point vehemently in here last year...

Having said that, this is an impressive CAD setup with a big boy high to funnel in the cold, at least at the surface. But like you I'm extremely hesitant to get too wrapped up in some of the snow amounts being spit out right now. My guess is that in the coming days we'll see the snow maps start to back off. (and to some extent they already have) 

To be perfectly clear - I DO think this will be a legit winter storm with significant amounts of frozen precipitation here in the Suskie Valley. I also believe that something on the order of 2" -4" before a changeover is more likely than some of the 6"+ amounts we've seen on some of the maps. 

One thing I don't like for those of us in the southern tier is that the heaviest axis of precip keeps moving north on the models. As you said, we need good rates to overcome the warming. 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This...is so VERY true. I argued this point vehemently in here last year...

Having said that, this is an impressive CAD setup with a big boy high to funnel in the cold, at least at the surface. But like you I'm extremely hesitant to get too wrapped up in some of the snow amounts being spit out right now. My guess is that in the coming days we'll see the snow maps start to back off. (and to some extent they already have) 

To be perfectly clear - I DO think this will be a legit winter storm with significant amounts of frozen precipitation here in the Suskie Valley. I also believe that something on the order of 2" -4" before a changeover is more likely than some of the 6"+ amounts we've seen on some of the maps. 

Definitely something that we deal w/ and agree w/ you guys.  Only potential plus is the power of the 1040ish hp that departs slowly and gets down to 1039.  If that verifies, it will surely anchor in the lower levels as Mag alluded to.  One needs to be reminded that CAD is often under modeled, so that is something to consider when putting the storm puzzle together. 

Snow maps are just for giggles, but I love laughing.