Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 The 6z GFS said “Let’s line ‘em up” to the winter storm potential over the 2 weeks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 6z GFS said “Let’s line ‘em up” to the winter storm potential over the 2 weeks! Looks like a big temp drop back to normal Thursday, isn't that a bit ahead of where it had been forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, canderson said: Looks like a big temp drop back to normal Thursday, isn't that a bit ahead of where it had been forecast? It’s right around when many models for the past few days have been saying the temps should drop- sometime Thursday or Friday this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 6z GFS said “Let’s line ‘em up” to the winter storm potential over the 2 weeks! # 1 - Next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 28 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 6z GFS said “Let’s line ‘em up” to the winter storm potential over the 2 weeks! # 2 - The following weekend the 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 30 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 6z GFS said “Let’s line ‘em up” to the winter storm potential over the 2 weeks! # 3 - Another storm that looks inbound that I am extrapolating for the 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 What was a weekend storm, next week, is quickly turning into a Friday-Friday Night slopfest. Nice front end snows on 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Went up to 71 degrees at 1 am lastnight...probably one of the worst winter nights I've ever had for sleeping because of how hot it was. Had to close the windows in the bedroom 2 times because of both lines of storms blowing rain in. And after the first one went the temp would shoot back up and it was just uncomfortable sleeping lol. I don't have any central ac and have a coal stove going downstairs so lol yeah it was hard to keep cool. It really felt like it was a May night or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: What was a weekend storm, next week, is quickly turning into a Friday-Friday Night slopfest. Nice front end snows on 12Z GFS. Yes, the quicker that the storm next weekend moves in, will be for the better for more front end snow. That 1040 High in Ontario should really help the cause. The secondary that the GFS is forming off off the Delmarva should help hold in the cold as well. The front end snow was very nice on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 On 1/11/2020 at 12:17 PM, Blizzard of 93 said: Ha ha! I’m not upset. I love anytime that this board gets a good discussion going. @pasnownut is too busy now with his snowmobile in upstate NY to be worried about the warm up talk. I am very comforted by knowing that this warm up is temporary. We only have 5 days until winter returns. The best days of this winter will be starting next weekend! Was up at cabin muzzleloader hunting. No sledding this weekend. I can’t change what happens weathwise and just deal with it. As I’ve said for years...us snow lovers get 3 months so the other 9 we watch. That’s my rub. All good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 Normally I'd say a 1040+ high is money for a mostly frozen or icy event in most of C-PA, but these are pretty wound up solutions into the Lower Lakes along with the high pressure not being anchored. We need to see a weaker low or a better/early enough transfer to the coast. Obviously a further southeast track underneath us would be ideal but this one probably cuts if it ends up being a deeper system. Certainly a solid possibility of seeing decent wintry weather impacts but this will def be a flawed system/setup. We're in the midst of the transition period in that timeframe and we're not quite there yet pattern wise as still see pretty notable eastern ridging present at 500mb with this storm arriving. So the big keys will be strength and positioning of the Canadian high for the system arriving, and how much the cold presses into the area later this week prior to the event. If you don't press that boundary far enough south we could end up with an event that's more wet than wintry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 The 12z Euro Op & EPS Ensemble are both in agreement & on board for good front end snow next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 CTP seems really confident in the chance of snow, especially for 5 days out. My point & click has an 80% chance of snow for Friday night for the Harrisburg area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Point and click showing 4-8 Friday night into Saturday. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 The 0z suite looked pretty good overnight, with a significant front end snowfall on both the GFS and Euro aided by the progged strong high pressure. The preceding shortwave mid-week is more notable on tonight's guidance which may be helping set the cold air boundary better. Euro solution was the snowiest, with a majority of the subforum seeing 6"+ on 10:1 maps. GFS had 6"+ north of the turnpike central and eastern thirds of the state but turned most of the area over to rain at the end. That usually doesn't happen as either the storm overall ends up warmer and you see less front end snow or you get significant snows up front and typically that's a colder/icier outcome after changeover. Euro solution presented an opportunity for potentially an all frozen event or snow to mix for some as it is a tad weaker with the primary and it looks to occlude/ try to transfer to the coast. Gonna be interesting to watch this evolve this week. Some shades of last winter's Jan 19-20th event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: The 0z suite looked pretty good overnight, with a significant front end snowfall on both the GFS and Euro aided by the progged strong high pressure. The preceding shortwave mid-week is more notable on tonight's guidance which may be helping set the cold air boundary better. Euro solution was the snowiest, with a majority of the subforum seeing 6"+ on 10:1 maps. GFS had 6"+ north of the turnpike central and eastern thirds of the state but turned most of the area over to rain at the end. That usually doesn't happen as either the storm overall ends up warmer and you see less front end snow or you get significant snows up front and typically that's a colder/icier outcome after changeover. Euro solution presented an opportunity for potentially an all frozen event or snow to mix for some as it is a tad weaker with the primary and it looks to occlude/ try to transfer to the coast. Gonna be interesting to watch this evolve this week. Some shades of last winter's Jan 19-20th event. That was the storm that CTP had metro Harrisburg in their 8"-10" zone the morning of the storm, and they ended up with 3.3" I believe. I got 2" before a quick transition to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Its not perfect but I'm starting to get a stove pipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Friday night Snow thongs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That was the storm that CTP had metro Harrisburg in their 8"-10" zone the morning of the storm, and they ended up with 3.3" I believe. That was the "Women of Harrisburg" storm: Told to expect 8. Got four. Twice. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: The 0z suite looked pretty good overnight, with a significant front end snowfall on both the GFS and Euro aided by the progged strong high pressure. The preceding shortwave mid-week is more notable on tonight's guidance which may be helping set the cold air boundary better. Euro solution was the snowiest, with a majority of the subforum seeing 6"+ on 10:1 maps. GFS had 6"+ north of the turnpike central and eastern thirds of the state but turned most of the area over to rain at the end. That usually doesn't happen as either the storm overall ends up warmer and you see less front end snow or you get significant snows up front and typically that's a colder/icier outcome after changeover. Euro solution presented an opportunity for potentially an all frozen event or snow to mix for some as it is a tad weaker with the primary and it looks to occlude/ try to transfer to the coast. Gonna be interesting to watch this evolve this week. Some shades of last winter's Jan 19-20th event. It also seemed to slow it back down to a weekend storm again (for the LSV). The snow has not even broken out at 7AM on the 0Z Euro where as it was approaching NYC at that same time on the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Flatheadsickness said: Friday night Snow thongs ? Tell Nanny it's Red Panty night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 The overnight GFS & Euro, along with their ensembles, continued to trend better for a potentially snowier outcome for CTP. We will probably go over to ice during the second half of the storm, but if this front end thump occurred, most of us wouldn’t mind ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Tell Nanny it's Red Panty night. Sadly Nanny died during Christmas dinner from a sphincter infection that she contracted in Bangkok. I have a Aunt on her way though. She is a Pig Breader from Tunguska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I think that High is going to be a stubborn cold one Blizzard93 . Still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Back from the cabin, and getting back into the swing of things. Looks like you guys did a good job of keeping the ship heading in the right direction. Exciting times ahead. Nice to see Euro/GFS on similar trains of thought, and w/ the Euro coming in better...its a great spot to be in. LR guidance says cold looks to hold for a while. Not parsing over detaiils too much but its nice to see reds and blues where they belong on the 500's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 CTP sounds really bullish this far out, interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, canderson said: CTP sounds really bullish this far out, interesting. Turns out, they're all masochists that get off on the general public slamming them on Facebook while holding up rodents as more accurate, and so they just continue to sound the alarm knowing how wrong they'll look. Or they're trying to get the same horde of morons to run for office, become elected, and end the National Weather Service, which is probably more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 22 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Turns out, they're all masochists that get off on the general public slamming them on Facebook while holding up rodents as more accurate, and so they just continue to sound the alarm knowing how wrong they'll look. Or they're trying to get the same horde of morons to run for office, become elected, and end the National Weather Service, which is probably more likely. Hey The White House had a blizzard last night, just ask any unnamed NOAA meteorologist. And Twitter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 20 minutes ago, canderson said: Hey The White House had a blizzard last night, just ask any unnamed NOAA meteorologist. And Twitter. **** Twitter. Jack Dorsey should be sent to the Hague for crimes against humanity with Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 should do a road trip to Jackson Hole. 105" and counting for the month of January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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