Voyager Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 About an inch on non-paved surfaces up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 The 6z Euro keeps us in the game for a little PA Farm Show snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 here is my annual reminder of the best birthday gift i ever got for tomorrow. You're welcome 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I'm excited for tomorrow's dusting on grass and mulch. Will be the 3rd dusting this year! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 hours ago, sauss06 said: here is my annual reminder of the best birthday gift i ever got for tomorrow. You're welcome Talk about cold powder...most of that storm occurred with temps not far from 10 degrees. We all remember what happened the following week... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 hours ago, canderson said: I'm excited for tomorrow's dusting on grass and mulch. Will be the 3rd dusting this year! Lol depending on temps may be white rain, but at least snow falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Another coating tomorrow, at least we will see some white rain for a change (Farm Show Magic) and then another warm up and rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, paweather said: Another coating tomorrow, at least we will see some white rain for a change (Farm Show Magic) and then another warm up and rainstorm. I'm thinking our extreme southern guys may cash in on a nice coating on cold surfaces...just a gut feeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 We all need to cherish every single flake tomorrow. The Euro has the lsv approaching 70 degrees, with dewpoints in the low 60s Sunday morning. Maytown...Get the a/c ready! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, daxx said: We all need to cherish every single flake tomorrow. The Euro has the lsv approaching 70 degrees, with dewpoints in the low 60s Sunday morning. Maytown...Get the a/c ready! Warmth almost always overachieves...I fully expect to make a serious run at 70. AC is a given. I think tomorrow might be a nice little surprise for some people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Agree on all of these thoughts, is the January Thaw suppose to last a month this year? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, paweather said: Agree on all of these thoughts, is the January Thaw suppose to last a month this year? :-) There is nothing to thaw this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 12z eps was definitely a stress reliever in the LR today. Starting around the 17th through the rest of its run, it brings the cold back east. Not only the cold but decent storm chances. Now we just have to keep that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 All it takes is one nice warning event and the year seems that much better. Keeping the faith.... for now. Also looking like decent lapse rates and instability on Wednesday any chance of squalls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 11 hours ago, MAG5035 said: When it comes to the teleconnections, tropical forcing (MJO), etc there is certainly an argument to be had with placing too much weight on them at times...specifically when you have conflicting signals or magnitudes that aren't very strong. You will often hear me say that we don't need a -NAO to get a snowstorm around here. What we have with this pattern however, is strong magnitudes and correlation between all the different teleconnections in favor of the unfortunate result for our weather... That being southeast ridging and us being on the wrong side of the boundary for this upcoming period coming up. Honestly I think we're closer to this pattern eventually breaking into something way more favorable for us then one might think, but we have to ease the magnitude of some of the teleconnections working against us. I'm not sure which event you were describing on the GFS. If your talking about Tuesday's system, it's close to being something bigger but the pattern is too progressive and we see little interaction between the northern and southern stream. The result is the southern stream wave kicking out flat and unless models come back north some we'll see the bulk of precip going to MD/VA/DC and skirting the southern tier of our region. And it's an event on the lighter side to begin with anyways. We were closer to a MECS at the beginning of December when northern and NE PA on up into the interior northeast got whacked by a significant snowstorm and actually did give places in the LSV some snow. Now tonight's model runs were interesting in the day 5-7 range. The GFS for instance has a cutter but also has strong Canadian high in place to the north and a much more moisture laden storm system. Like I said yesterday, there is a lot of cold air on our side of the pole... and between that and the SE ridge there is liable to be a huge temp gradient. The result will likely be a swath of significant snow and especially ice somewhere with the high pressure over the top in Canada. Both the GFS and Euro tonight illustrated this although to far northwest for us. This might actually have to be watched because a well timed strong high pressure moving to the north along with an approaching system from the south is the way to score winter weather in this unfavorable pattern. But it would have to be timed perfectly with the progressive pattern. The more likely result is another rainstorm with the wintry weather not far off, again. I did not have time to go back and look a the specific days I was referring to but I remember two things I saw....one more close to the 16th or 17th, what I thought looked like a phase opportunity, then the 20th for more of an old fashioned over running chance. Tied up a bit so cannot give it much more thought but did not want to let the thread drop without me giving an answer. I just quickly glanced at the 12Z GFS and the resulting weather modeled, outside patterns, is same old/same old for this year...like you mentioned...wrong side of the boundary and little in the way of CAD hopes. I see Dax had some good news from the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 hours ago, daxx said: There is nothing to thaw this year. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 No mention of the 18z gfs. Sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 No mention of the 18z gfs. SheeshThat good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: No mention of the 18z gfs. Sheesh Here you go sir ! There is good agreement between the 18z GFS,3k NAM, & high res Canadian. The LSV from around the turnpike & south looks good for 1 to 2 inches of snow by tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 hour ago, anotherman said: That good? If I thought it was going to lay on the roads I would say get the plows ready but not sure it lays much on primary road surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 The 18z Euro agreed with the rest of the other 18z models for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Pretty good QPF bump on the Euro for the southern crew. Like Daxx said, any snow tomorrow in this pattern should be cherished. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 @Blizzard of 93What a way to ruin the warm fuzzy weather....boy Im sure this is pissin some off. Heck the Tug Hill is getting smoked right now. I didnt see that coming as I've been blinded by the doom n gloom of late....and yes, it is somewhat justified. Last couple days there have been several decent ensemble runs and another window amidst the warmth as the 18th through 20th appears to have a relaxation of the ridging here in the east, and the west appears to be realigning to a more workable scenario. This is per the GEPS. If one looks further out at the GEFS, you can see the Aleutian ridge progressing east and in turn a more broadbased flow establishes in the PAC NW. I'm not cherrypicking what i want to see, as I'm seeing both good, bad, ugly and better, and trying to sort through it all. Here is the GEFS showing better ridging out west and this isn't far from workable at all. Yes this is way out beyond where i like to look, and no this isnt a flip to crazy good, but its better. We all know its wash rinse repeat for the next 7-10 days, so there's no use beating the dead horse anymore. We just need to get over loosing another good week in hopes that winters staging some kind of comeback. AO and NAO both show some help and are trending down as we get beyond next week, so lets hope the models continue to adjust accordingly. MJO goes lower amplitude towards the COD, but still in warm phases, but as I stated some time back, as we have no overwhelming signals this year, we need to look at all signals, and blend as best as we can IMO. If one looks at the EPS at end of run, you can see the Scandy ridging established which would lend credence to the AO/NAO signals potentially having some merit. Like I said, i promised myself to not get invested beyond 240, but there is a strong enough signal to write off the mid term and look beyond for signs of winter. If we can sneak something in next week (which I'm a little skeptical about), it would be nice to help salvage something out of this ugly period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: @Blizzard of 93What a way to ruin the warm fuzzy weather....boy Im sure this is pissin some off. Heck the Tug Hill is getting smoked right now. I didnt see that coming as I've been blinded by the doom n gloom of late....and yes, it is somewhat justified. Last couple days there have been several decent ensemble runs and another window amidst the warmth as the 18th through 20th appears to have a relaxation of the ridging here in the east, and the west appears to be realigning to a more workable scenario. This is per the GEPS. If one looks further out at the GEFS, you can see the Aleutian ridge progressing east and in turn a more broadbased flow establishes in the PAC NW. I'm not cherrypicking what i want to see, as I'm seeing both good, bad, ugly and better, and trying to sort through it all. Here is the GEFS showing better ridging out west and this isn't far from workable at all. Yes this is way out beyond where i like to look, and no this isnt a flip to crazy good, but its better. We all know its wash rinse repeat for the next 7-10 days, so there's no use beating the dead horse anymore. We just need to get over loosing another good week in hopes that winters staging some kind of comeback. AO and NAO both show some help and are trending down as we get beyond next week, so lets hope the models continue to adjust accordingly. MJO goes lower amplitude towards the COD, but still in warm phases, but as I stated some time back, as we have no overwhelming signals this year, we need to look at all signals, and blend as best as we can IMO. You’re smarter than me with this stuff, but unless the crazy strong Pacific jet doesn’t let go it’s pretty pointless of anything else isn’t it? Doesn’t that overrride anything else for us to get prolonged cold and snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, canderson said: You’re smarter than me with this stuff, but unless the crazy strong Pacific jet doesn’t let go it’s pretty pointless of anything else isn’t it? Doesn’t that overrride anything else for us to get prolonged cold and snow? That's a very valid point. PAC is and has been the primary driver as we all know that's where our weather comes from, but you don't need a +2 PNA to get what we want if you can get the AO/NAO to get off their high horses (currently +3 and +1), and as they trend to neutral (or better), it doesn't take a ton of things right to score in prime climo (look at tomorrow night and next weeks potential warm spell buster - if it verifies). Mind you this doesn't scream snow in the streets for days either, but in a less than stellar year, you take what you can get and get over the rest - well at least that's how I roll..... On the bright side, my snowmobiles arent getting beat up. I'm really trying here guys so work with me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 35 minutes ago, pasnownut said: @Blizzard of 93What a way to ruin the warm fuzzy weather....boy Im sure this is pissin some off. Heck the Tug Hill is getting smoked right now. I didnt see that coming as I've been blinded by the doom n gloom of late....and yes, it is somewhat justified. Last couple days there have been several decent ensemble runs and another window amidst the warmth as the 18th through 20th appears to have a relaxation of the ridging here in the east, and the west appears to be realigning to a more workable scenario. This is per the GEPS. If one looks further out at the GEFS, you can see the Aleutian ridge progressing east and in turn a more broadbased flow establishes in the PAC NW. I'm not cherrypicking what i want to see, as I'm seeing both good, bad, ugly and better, and trying to sort through it all. Here is the GEFS showing better ridging out west and this isn't far from workable at all. Yes this is way out beyond where i like to look, and no this isnt a flip to crazy good, but its better. We all know its wash rinse repeat for the next 7-10 days, so there's no use beating the dead horse anymore. We just need to get over loosing another good week in hopes that winters staging some kind of comeback. AO and NAO both show some help and are trending down as we get beyond next week, so lets hope the models continue to adjust accordingly. MJO goes lower amplitude towards the COD, but still in warm phases, but as I stated some time back, as we have no overwhelming signals this year, we need to look at all signals, and blend as best as we can IMO. If one looks at the EPS at end of run, you can see the Scandy ridging established which would lend credence to the AO/NAO signals potentially having some merit. Like I said, i promised myself to not get invested beyond 240, but there is a strong enough signal to write off the mid term and look beyond for signs of winter. If we can sneak something in next week (which I'm a little skeptical about), it would be nice to help salvage something out of this ugly period. The EPS at 12z today was a massive step in the right direction for a better pattern beginning in about 10 days. By day 10 on the EPS, the trough is pushing towards the east & the southeast ridge has finally decreased just to our south. This could be the beginning of a workable pattern for winter weather. A storm could ride the boundary & we could be just on the good side to produce winter weather in PA. By day 15 on the EPS, the mean trough has advanced to the center of the country. The PNA is rising & the southeast ridge has been buried to the Carolinas. Also, all caveats aside about snow maps at long range, the EPS snow map showed a nice increase between day 10 & 15. I am posting it just to show the winter storm potential if the EPS is on the right track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 The 0z NAMs upped the ante for tomorrow’s snow potential. The LSV could get a half decent snow event tomorrow if the good trends continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 GFS improved for much of the LSV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, Newman said: GFS improved for much of the LSV Wow, it really has been late to the party on this one, but verbatim is trying to bud in line to steal the dance w/ the class cutie... It is a typical bias of the GFS to lose then find the storm, so this isn't something new....even though the model is :). If one toggles through the 500's you can see it tucking in a little tighter to the coast and parsing over the ICON and NAM, they all have a somewhat similar evolution and consensus on this event. I'll gladly take it. Even if it is gone in a few days. Funny thing is there is enough time for another subtle shift or 2 (good or bad) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Wow, it really has been late to the party on this one, but verbatim is trying to bud in line to steal the dance w/ the class cutie... It is a typical bias of the GFS to lose then find the storm, so this isn't something new....even though the model is :). If one toggles through the 500's you can see it tucking in a little tighter to the coast and parsing over the ICON and NAM, they all have a somewhat similar evolution and consensus on this event. I'll gladly take it. Even if it is gone in a few days. Funny thing is there is enough time for another subtle shift or 2 (good or bad) I'll get on the GFS and HuRRR train, as that model's been pretty well north with the precip as well since we've gotten into HRRR range. Otherwise this system's getting just close enough for me to see someone like Cashtown probably double up my 3" on season totals to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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