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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

So just a quick question...just a day or two ago everything was looking really good...now there are comments about us loosing the good look???  Is this a fact..or are peeps just jaded about everything always going to sh*t this year so far?  What's your take Scott?

i'm not Scott but as mahk alludes to below, some ppl get confused when the NYC and MA weenies post their panic drivel in here, where in most cases, it is not applicable to the NE subforum

2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

I have to remember where I live.  I can see how the Mid Atl folks could start to panic, and maybe NYC but for most of us an active pattern with cold air nearby via highs to our north is a great winter set up - no suppression.

 

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38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... I wish it were that easy.. 

Problem is, I'm getting increasingly more leery ( not that you are anyone cares or asked for my opinion of course... ) with comparatives between un-like eras. 

The climate isn't just changing...it's done/doing so logarithmically -  ...the old comparing of Ali to Tyson. Can't really do it.

Shouldn't that ( logically ) immediately send ripples of uncertainty when assessing anything now, based up a time(s) prior to the linear part of that change ( on...1990s)? Uncertainty that would naturally only be exacerbated by the last 20 years when the climate change appears to be a curved ascent.   

You may not be "relying" on '58 through '78 to formulate a speculation framework - that's not what I mean. I'm saying that - for me - I don't think the 'climate signaling' is really being read right these days...because it can't in way?  

I'm just i gotta say ...I'm a little flummoxed that there is evidence in the actual dailies, for the HC to relax really everywhere around the NH lower latitudes...and the MJO is robust in Phase 7/8... so, the MJO "should" be able to take advantage and show it can exert an influence more.  The HC was enveloping the MJO prior... sort of in the same sense why it helped mute the mega NINO in 2015-'16...  Gradient detection falters when the HC engulfs -  

Where the f is it?   I wonder if it will all happen at once or something. I dunno. 

 

I don't really see the MJO getting into phase 8 on current guidance. Seems to go back into the COD after phase 7. 

That might change of course. But I'm not surprised we don't see an MJO phase 8 look right now on guidance because it's not getting there. 

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That one I provided came via NWS', one of their NP offices and going to their "Observations" link ... I've noticed these sites ( must be ) allowed to create their own interfacing for obs, under a standardized page formatting - comes off that way... Anyway, I put in the "=bos" in the URL bar and it seemed to default the orbital view over the west coast, which is then easy to drift the image over any region of the country and then use track-ball action ( or whatever tech) to then hone in, when/where it automagically fills in with a denser number of sites but very quickly. And that's good. 

Try this link:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=8&scroll_zoom=true&center=42.08599350447723,-72.08129882812499&basemap=OpenStreetMap&boundaries=true,false,false&obs=true&obs_type=weather&elements=temp,wind,gust&obs_popup=false&obs_density=1

It's centered over SNE but you can create links for any place based on the latitude/longitude and how far you want it zoomed.

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28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't really see the MJO getting into phase 8 on current guidance. Seems to go back into the COD after phase 7. 

That might change of course. But I'm not surprised we don't see an MJO phase 8 look right now on guidance because it's not getting there. 

 

Ah...I bet that 'unfurls' ...it wasn't supposed to get to 7, either.  Typical behavior for that guidance -

Not always, no... we'll see. 

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26 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

yup... 

And the national view has it's place cuz ...well, if one is a serious weather dork, it's nice to fly around  lol 

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Man...this could be so great if we could just get western N/A to cooperate... f. 

Talking 578 dm heights over Miami, with no flags over 30 nots      IN A RIDGE there. 

That is how you set the table.  Problem is, the heights aren't committing to a convincing +PNAP.  

Funny, both the GGEM and GFS are QPFing the hell outta the eastern seaboard in that time frame, nonetheless. 

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The MJO correlation to our sensible weather seems less pronounced than one would expect.  Here are some big-time winter months from the past and their predominant MJO octant:

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

  • January 78 - 5
  • Feb 78 -  7
  • April 82 - low 7
  • Feb 83 - COD
  • March 93 - 3
  • Feb 94 - high 3-4-5
  • Feb 96 - COD
  • Feb 11 - COD
  • Feb 14 - COD
  • Feb 15 - COD then low 7-8
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