January 2020 Discussion

[Ogmios]

The GFS argues for the runner with no secondary low development while the European develops one.  The CMC agrees with the GFS while the ICON agrees with the Euro.  So which model is schooling whom, and based on the overall synopsis of the general pattern overall in the outlook it is increasingly clear  the ocean climate so to speak as opposed to a more Arctic look is not going anywhere's anytime soon though it may somewhat  be suppressed allowing for regular chilly air shots more for Northern New England as that ridge in the Atlantic is going to keep fighting back.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thread started.     

 

 

[moneypitmike]

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Thread started.     

 

 

Thread started?  Oh no---we're doomed!!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Long  range cmc and eps are awful

Surprised you’re not excited about the gfs d11 blizzard. What happened to your positivity...rough night patrolling?

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Surprised you’re not excited about the gfs d11 blizzard. What happened to your positivity...rough night patrolling?

They definitely seemed to have taken another step backwards last night (ensembles), but still workable around here. hopefully....Maybe we do have to wait until February, definitely a warmer look showing up 10 days from now. Hopefully we can score a quick 2-4 inches Saturday

[Damage In Tolland]

Any Mets comments on long range and if EPS is still nice for New England would be great .

[Spanks45]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any Mets comments on long range and if EPS is still nice for New England would be great .

not a met, but when lower heights start showing up in the Alaskan region in the longer range with temps below average in that region, it is definitely a step backwards. The -EPO is starting to fade....never a good sign unless there is a -AO or -NAO showing up which might be starting to happen in the AO region, but nothing exciting as of now....Locally, I am amazed at how warm the coastal waters are in the Eastern Atlantic and the entire basin for the most part...definitely affecting systems like this weekend more so than normal with an easterly flow.

[JC-CT]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Long  range cmc and eps are awful

 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Surprised you’re not excited about the gfs d11 blizzard. What happened to your positivity...rough night patrolling?

I guess its not going to school the Euro again?

[EastonSN+]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see the models adjusting milder around the 25th now that they have such a strong AAM rise. This is occurring as the record MJO enters the Western Pacific phases. We are getting a very strong WWB with this and a more El Niño looking regime. The stronger ridge building into SE Canada around the 25th is part of this pattern.

 

Great discussion by Bluewave on the shorter term warm up.

[Bostonseminole]

I'm tracking the 1/25 storm only.. beyond that looks TBD imho

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah I dunno... that seems to be happening in the EPS cluster/mean/derivatives rather newly.  Interesting.

Several of us were just remarking as recently as last week, how the EPS mean was in the other mode .. That is a 'betrayal of index'  - that's been happening with increased frequency, also, in the last five years. It was literally showing the opposite/mirrored look as recently as 5 or 7 days ago. It's really rather remarkable that the weight of that would do so that quickly - particularly considering the Pac relay into the EPO domains has a tremendous proxy on the total circulation over this side of the hemisphere, so intuitively..that much mass should exhibit more "immovability" in products that assess their modalities. 

Anyway, that's a pretty fantastic diametric reversal there in Bluewave's product... At first I wondered if that was old, ..I mean, it wouldn't be the first time the lucid social-mediasphere knee-jerked out a post and forgot to look at a time-stamp ( lol )  But nah... it says 01/14 so.   

He mentions the MJO is passing robustly into the western hemisphere and he's right. The pedestrian URLs plainly show this ... At least as of the 14th. The 15th should be out shortly to the free web. But here's the thing, +EPO is actually anti-correlary in the left side of the Wheeler chart/Phase regions in the climatology.  So there's something amiss about that/going here.  It may simply be that the N. arc of the Pacific Basin is also doing a kind of index betrayal, and is just not going to be entering the "constructive interference" with the MJO as previously mentioned by my self, and most likely surveyed by most others onto this sort of stuff.    

Have to monitor that... because the MJO's efficacy on pattern forcing is pretty significantly and coherently modulated by constructive -vs- destructive interfering hemispheric states.   In other words, the Phase 7-8-1-2 regions need to "sync" with a hemispheric circulation mode, and then they synergistically amplify the flow more than the sum of their parts - so to speak.   That's the construction ... The other way?  That's when the WPO and NP/EPO don't give a ratz azz whether there is a wave of deep convection propagating along between 20 S/N of the Equator out underneath... They create no synoptic channels for tropical forcing and the physical feed-back gets suppressed = destructive interference.   Modeling the "sync-ability" is logically the best course.. 

I guess I'm reasoning thru this gunk out loud. 

   

 

 

[CoastalWx]

An El nino look is pretty good this time of year. You don't need to Polar Express.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

An El nino look is pretty good this time of year. You don't need to Polar Express.

So just a quick question...just a day or two ago everything was looking really good...now there are comments about us loosing the good look???  Is this a fact..or are peeps just jaded about everything always going to sh*t this year so far?  What's your take Scott?

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So just a quick question...just a day or two ago everything was looking really good...now there are comments about us loosing the good look???  Is this a fact..or are peeps just jaded about everything always going to sh*t this year so far?  What's your take Scott?

To be honest, this little shuffling was on some guidance, but sometimes the mean smoothes it out. The overall players like ridging out west are there. Seems like now we have split flow and perhaps higher heights in Quebec. Typically a stormy look for the northeast, but not usually very cold. I am a little surprised at the changes last few days, but they aren't all that drastic in the big picture. It's like everything. You can't  predict details that far out. You look at the big picture and the overall look. To me, if I saw any concerns, it (interior rejoices) would be coastal huggers vs cutters IMO. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Mm.. I don't know about that. 

I tend to disagree.   warm ENSO pattern orientations in this era?    I can't condone that.  

We seem to be getting it hammered over our heads, though still can't feel the knocks of pain because of underlying stubborn neurotic obsession and drug lusting for this cinema/modeled -related cryo dystopian thrill...  eh hm, blocks that truth from getting in, but, shut off the -EPO/quasi -EPOs, and the we flip too warm for said circuitry of excitement...  really fast. 

That tendency to 'not have cold in bank' ( so to speak ) is/has been getting more obvious at our latitude.  Probably duh  duh duh dunnnnnn   do to CC.  

Nope...eyes roll. Argue.  bash...troll...  come on ...bring it on... But, you throw a warm +PNA variation into this thang and sorry...game over.  You gotta have the cold source.  

Some hyperbole here, okay  ... but large perspectives get what I mean. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It'll be interesting to see the ESRL EPS version.. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm.. I don't know about that. 

I tend to disagree.   warm ENSO pattern orientations in this era?    I can't condone that.  

We seem to be getting it hammered over our heads, though still can't feel the knocks of pain because of underlying stubborn neurotic obsession and drug lusting for this cinema/modeled -related cryo dystopian thrill...  eh hm, blocks that truth from getting in, but, shut off the -EPO/quasi -EPOs, and the we flip too warm for said circuitry of excitement...  really fast. 

That tendency to 'not have cold in bank' ( so to speak ) is/has been getting more obvious at our latitude.  Probably duh  duh duh dunnnnnn   do to CC.  

Nope...eyes roll. Argue.  bash...troll...  come on ...bring it on... But, you throw a warm +PNA variation into this thang and sorry...game over.  You gotta have the cold source.  

Some hyperbole here, okay  ... but large perspectives get what I mean. 

Nino look in deep winter across the northeast? That's our bread and butter outside of a raging Nino. I will take that over Tippy gradient ruler flow any day. Do they all work out? No, but that's a pattern with much better prior success vs a nina look.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nino look in deep winter across the northeast? That's our bread and butter outside of a raging Nino. I will take that over Tippy gradient ruler flow any day. Do they all work out? No, but that's a pattern with much better prior success vs a nina look.

No, that climate-reliance doesn't work any more. 

it doesn't ...

At least I don't think so  

I'm pretty convinced/confident in my interpretation of matters ... until I see empirical data that offsets what I just wrote: "shut off the -EPO/quasi -EPOs, and the we flip too warm for said circuitry of excitement...  really fast. "

It's like we're narrowing ( but not lost altogether - seems to be a tendency for people to knee-jerk react to negatives as though they are meant as absolutes... we're just talking juggling tendencies - so far..) our margins for error.   We need blocking to deliver cold, without the bloated HC super-imposing with R-wave roll-outs like last month's worth of heartache. 

[mahk_webstah]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

To be honest, this little shuffling was on some guidance, but sometimes the mean smoothes it out. The overall players like ridging out west are there. Seems like now we have split flow and perhaps higher heights in Quebec. Typically a stormy look for the northeast, but not usually very cold. I am a little surprised at the changes last few days, but they aren't all that drastic in the big picture. It's like everything. You can't  predict details that far out. You look at the big picture and the overall look. To me, if I saw any concerns, it (interior rejoices) would be coastal huggers vs cutters IMO. 

I have to remember where I live.  I can see how the Mid Atl folks could start to panic, and maybe NYC but for most of us an active pattern with cold air nearby via highs to our north is a great winter set up - no suppression.

[CoastalWx]

Well there are all flavors of Nino. Hell even Super Ninos like 15/16 through in a blizzard for NYC south and gave us a 10" blitz bomb in Feb. But that stormy look is usually good. I also think it's important to keep it real. I don't think people need to assume 04/05 is coming because one says a "nino" look. And it also could be just temporary. But from a winter storm standpoint, we take that. It doesn't need to be super cold. It won't be imo.

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't know if y'all know this exists but I like this NWS product:   https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&wfo=bos

It's got a reasonably decent density when scrolling in, and it's NWS sites which - in theory - we can eliminate the uncertainty of the "back-yard phenomenon" of Wonder ground/ general public.  

I can't wait to see a tuck cold punch on this product... Maybe we can do that this weekend when the GGEM verifies -heh... right. 

 

[adiabatic13]

42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm.. I don't know about that. 

I tend to disagree.   warm ENSO pattern orientations in this era?    I can't condone that.  

We seem to be getting it hammered over our heads, though still can't feel the knocks of pain because of underlying stubborn neurotic obsession and drug lusting for this cinema/modeled -related cryo dystopian thrill...  eh hm, blocks that truth from getting in, but, shut off the -EPO/quasi -EPOs, and the we flip too warm for said circuitry of excitement...  really fast. 

That tendency to 'not have cold in bank' ( so to speak ) is/has been getting more obvious at our latitude.  Probably duh  duh duh dunnnnnn   do to CC.  

Nope...eyes roll. Argue.  bash...troll...  come on ...bring it on... But, you throw a warm +PNA variation into this thang and sorry...game over.  You gotta have the cold source.  

Some hyperbole here, okay  ... but large perspectives get what I mean. 

Responded with the same in the NYC subforum yesterday afternoon in response to PB's MJO reliance; i.e. though more broadly, in that the way the atmos. has responded historically may not be the way the atmos. responds now that its background radiation has increased, there's recent evidence to postulate that loss of albedo and ocean warming in tha arctic has now hit a threshold where "spillover heat" is available to rapidly muck up the northern hemisphere's winter, this has been evident all cold season across much of Scandinavia, Siberia and East Asia and to a lesser degree across N America, but the mod over there deleted, probably because my frustration was on display...this is however exactly why the rest of the world's climate scientists are systematically disengaging from their colleagues in the good ole USA, nearly impossible to have a rational scientific discussion in this environment where the fundamental laws of thermodynamics are now considered just one "opinion"

[CapturedNature]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know if y'all know this exists but I like this NWS product:   https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&wfo=bos

It's got a reasonably decent density when scrolling in, and it's NWS sites which - in theory - we can eliminate the uncertainty of the "back-yard phenomenon" of Wonder ground/ general public.  

I can't wait to see a tuck cold punch on this product... Maybe we can do that this weekend when the GGEM verifies -heh... right. 

That's my go-to product for temperature maps.  That and the MRMS maps for radar, though I wish the latter included dual pol data.  The NWS used to have a map like that with it but it went away.

[Ogmios]

Not sure if this should be posted over on the panic forum for those that will not like the Pacific look in these teleconnections:

The NAO is not bad, the PNA is good shape,  but the EPO says ocean runaway influence.

 

Note: if you are getting the 14th of January please click on the image to get the January 15 teleconnections

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, adiabatic13 said:

Responded with the same in the NYC subforum yesterday afternoon in response to PB's MJO reliance; i.e. though more broadly, in that the way the atmos. has responded historically may not be the way the atmos. responds now that its background radiation has increased, there's recent evidence to postulate that loss of albedo and ocean warming in tha arctic has now hit a threshold where "spillover heat" is available to rapidly muck up the northern hemisphere's winter, this has been evident all cold season across much of Scandinavia, Siberia and East Asia and to a lesser degree across N America, but the mod over there deleted, probably because my frustration was on display...this is however exactly why the rest of the world's climate scientists are systematically disengaging from their colleagues in the good ole USA, nearly impossible to have a rational scientific discussion in this environment where the fundamental laws of thermodynamics are now considered just one "opinion"

Keep that out of it... that would be my advice ( bold ) - not that you were seeking advice, per se   just sayn'

You may be right?  but this is a politically charged sentiment... I would suggest, admittedly out of hand, that if you leveled and/or couched your climate/weather -related thoughts in this sort of missive, that may be why the mods opted to remove your text from the thread(s).   

 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

That's my go-to product for temperature maps.  That and the MRMS maps for radar, though I wish the latter included dual pol data.  The NWS used to have a map like that with it but it went away.

That one I provided came via NWS', one of their NP offices and going to their "Observations" link ... I've noticed these sites ( must be ) allowed to create their own interfacing for obs, under a standardized page formatting - comes off that way... Anyway, I put in the "=bos" in the URL bar and it seemed to default the orbital view over the west coast, which is then easy to drift the image over any region of the country and then use track-ball action ( or whatever tech) to then hone in, when/where it automagically fills in with a denser number of sites but very quickly. And that's good. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Well there are all flavors of Nino. Hell even Super Ninos like 15/16 through in a blizzard for NYC south and gave us a 10" blitz bomb in Feb. But that stormy look is usually good. I also think it's important to keep it real. I don't think people need to assume 04/05 is coming because one says a "nino" look. And it also could be just temporary. But from a winter storm standpoint, we take that. It doesn't need to be super cold. It won't be imo.

Yeah I don't hate that D8-11 look at all. I like the reduced gradient with potential for storms. I think the PAC becomes more amplified again after that too. 

A lot of good ninos had a look somewhat similar to that for long stretches. 1958 and 1978 come to mind. 

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, Ogmios said:

Not sure if this should be posted over on the panic forum for those that will not like the Pacific look in these teleconnections:

 

The NAO is not bad, the PNA is good shape,  but the EPO says ocean runaway influence.

 

Note: if you are getting the 14th of January please click on the image to get the January 15 teleconnections

Not a mod ...but, that's perfectly valid to to mention the data, and ask/open dialogue about the implications therein...  

The 15th has been updated, by the way...  It too is showing a bit of an "index betrayel" - as I tongue-in-cheeked a while ago, specifically with the EPO handling.  

There were clues, frets and starts in the operational tenors over the last week, for blocking episodes up over Alaska... The ensemble mean you provide above from ESRL hasn't admittedly been totally on-board in the EPS channel there... but, the PNA, as is clearly shown in both the 14th and the 15th, and priors, is going thru a whopper correction event. That bottomed out some -5 SD ...and ends up all the way to +1 at ESRL... +.25 at CPC.  CPC didn't bottom the PNA as deeply as this product above from CDC  ...but, still going from -3 or so to +.25 is impressive enough to send pattern change signal.  

My own failing is that I assumed with the MJO being so demonstratively punching a powerful wave sig through late 6 on into and thru phase 7 ( and probably deeper into 8 ), probably meant that the operational blocking suggestions had more legs.  They may yet prove to be so...and it could come back..and prove this neg-head model bs from last night is a red herring.  That's the problem with big continuity shifts... which the EPS' version of the EPO certainly represents a significant shift, we need more than a single cycle to gain confidence... I mean, 5 days ago, the EPS mean was charging into a -1-ish EPO, so if it can reverse, it can reverse again.. etc..etc.

But here's the rub on that... that's based on 1978 through circa 2004 modeling ( prior to that, it didn't really exist enough so ..).  Continuity is like 101 deterministic synoptic met.  If the models change a lot, forget it... If they hold a solution, that is supposed to supply confidence.  What's been happening in recent years is more like what they call in NFL Football as "chunk plays"?  Only using that expression here, we are showing discontinuity in chunk runs.  Basically... we are going 5 ... 7 someodd cycles worth showing ..relatively similar ideas, lending to confidence, but then getting the rug pulled out from underneath.  This is also happening at mid and large mass scales, too - i.e., the teleconnectors. Not just individual modeling performance. That's making correcting and on-going modulation and anticipation...all of it, a head game. Fascinating.   

I don't know why that is ... but I'm loaded with science fiction speculation that could certainly convey with reasonable turns of phrase.   

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I don't hate that D8-11 look at all. I like the reduced gradient with potential for storms. I think the PAC becomes more amplified again after that too. 

A lot of good ninos had a look somewhat similar to that for long stretches. 1958 and 1978 come to mind. 

Heh... I wish it were that easy.. 

Problem is, I'm getting increasingly more leery ( not that you are anyone cares or asked for my opinion of course... ) with comparatives between un-like eras. 

The climate isn't just changing...it's done/doing so logarithmically -  ...the old comparing of Ali to Tyson. Can't really do it.

Shouldn't that ( logically ) immediately send ripples of uncertainty when assessing anything now, based up a time(s) prior to the linear part of that change ( on...1990s)? Uncertainty that would naturally only be exacerbated by the last 20 years when the climate change appears to be a curved ascent.   

You may not be "relying" on '58 through '78 to formulate a speculation framework - that's not what I mean. I'm saying that - for me - I don't think the 'climate signaling' is really being read right these days...because it can't in way?  

I'm just i gotta say ...I'm a little flummoxed that there is evidence in the actual dailies, for the HC to relax really everywhere around the NH lower latitudes...and the MJO is robust in Phase 7/8... so, the MJO "should" be able to take advantage and show it can exert an influence more.  The HC was enveloping the MJO prior... sort of in the same sense why it helped mute the mega NINO in 2015-'16...  Gradient detection falters when the HC engulfs -  

Where the f is it?   I wonder if it will all happen at once or something. I dunno.