dendrite Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Ah, But those were there too at that time. Yeah. I must’ve just missed them. It’s funny because I looked for them at the time too. #old 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 42 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Perhaps a case of correlation is not causation; but the 18th is starting to look a lot more like a storm overlaid with the MJO phase 6 in mid January. It was what I cautioned with anyway... Just sayin’ Still time to change. But feeling more confident that this not a winter storm for the bulk of us—me included. Yup...I recall... Or...a -PNA storm too. I guess when the MJO is on the right hand side of the Wheeler, might be harder to decompose which is which ...but matters perhaps less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, JC-CT said: There's an ok signal for the 25th-ish and after looks as good as it has all winter. I actually really like that relaxed gradient (Canada a bit blocky) type flow around D9-11....that's how we get some of our good miller Bs like 1/12/11 and Xmas 2002...it's kind of a split flow look. Then the PNA/EPO take it up another level after that like you hinted at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 This is basically just turning into a cutter with some nuisance snow on the front end because the airmass our ahead is decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This is basically just turning into a cutter with some nuisance snow on the front end because the airmass our ahead is decent Yeah ...agreed, as it sets now in the guidance ... Funny, a couple hours ago I was musing that it was kind of not a cutter too because it wasn't really get N of our latitude before shunting E... What happens? Immediately, the runs instructively go N of our latitude ah well... It may be that it was too much to ask for the ballast of that thing to be on the cold side given the flow structure and various inhibitions - oh yeah. We'll see.. it's a cold air mass... and that high "could" be too liberally eroded.. .hell, what if it turned into a short duration icer ... fast flow narrow margin-sensitive event/patterns cannot discount weird shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 If we really want to see this pig dwindle down to nothing, I could start a thread... I would rather wait a day or two. I started musing this would be a relatively minor event on Saturday or so, but was hoping it would be better. As we change patterns, it seems we take some time to ramp up most years. 2015 was a rare beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Does anyone know of any literature or documentation on the degree of which wind speeds affect snow ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's a weather chart ...not something you typically find on a weather-related social media outlet, I know - Ya your funny Higgins. I realize that...what were you trying to show there? Looks like it's going to be cold here according to those 850 mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I will be pissed if both of this week’s systems end up giving ski country / NNE less than 8-10” of snow. I put off a ski trip N this weekend hoping there would be much better base in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: That was the misleading map of the day as it was the change from the prior day EPS for the same time. The anomalies are still below normal in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That was the misleading map of the day as it was the change from the prior day EPS for the same time. The anomalies are still below normal in the east Last night's 00z run was colder than the 12z run yesterday too....so I agree its a bit cherry-picked. But that is also an HDD weenie...they really care more about extreme cold than they do about storms and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya your funny Higgins. I realize that...what were you trying to show there? Looks like it's going to be cold here according to those 850 mb temps. yeah, I was kidding... it's that confluence of different air mass types right within like pixels of one another. Looks like Pacific polar air, with arctic and maybe some sort of old continental polar rot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 26 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Does anyone know of any literature or documentation on the degree of which wind speeds affect snow ratios? Seems hard to find...but I found this paper https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF903.1 go down to "page 100" and they talk about it. Looks like they reference some other literature too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That was the misleading map of the day as it was the change from the prior day EPS for the same time. The anomalies are still below normal in the east And not to toot horns but ... that's not taking into consideration the larger scale and degree of under-pinning scaffold changes and how the boreal winter hemisphere is going to exist over/ upon the relaxing HC stuff. Which is not pseudo f'n science man. If it's getting warm, it has to be looked at uniquely ... which there is not. As an aside, even the EPS /oper. Euro MJO's are blasting Phase 7 and that's a -AO correlation. Good look warm mongers - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Seems hard to find...but I found this paper https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF903.1 go down to "page 100" and they talk about it. Looks like they reference some other literature too. Thanks. I'd guess qpf error is greater than snow ratio error from a forecasting standpoint but still good to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 How’s EPS for weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: How’s EPS for weekend? About the same as the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: About the same as the OP. 3-6? Does it keep interior cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How’s EPS for weekend? Grab an inch or two then we move onto better things next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: 3-6? Does it keep interior cold? Yeah OP had like 4" for you...EPS prob similar. It would warm up though above freezing for a time. It wouldn't be enough to melt it off though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah OP had like 4" for you...EPS prob similar. It would warm up though above freezing for a time. It wouldn't be enough to melt it off though. Nice. Need to build the base for the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah OP had like 4" for you...EPS prob similar. It would warm up though above freezing for a time. It wouldn't be enough to melt it off though. More than I thought..not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Nice. Need to build the base for the cold Yeah...well if this keeps trending, not sure we'll have much to build off of....lol. Thump is trending weaker. Hopefully we see some trending back in the good direction. Still plenty of time as it's 108 hours out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah OP had like 4" for you...EPS prob similar. It would warm up though above freezing for a time. It wouldn't be enough to melt it off though. If we go to rain/mix, are we talking anything like a flash freeze when this exits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...well if this keeps trending, not sure we'll have much to build off of....lol. Thump is trending weaker. Hopefully we see some trending back in the good direction. Still plenty of time as it's 108 hours out. What does someone have to do in here to get a pure snowstorm. Tired of depending on the front end thump. Even that's been weak at best. I think everyone will be happy if we get a pure snowstorm blizzard-like conditions slow mover two to three foot amounts from Mid-Atlantic up to the Northeast. Let's hope for just one 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: Does anyone know of any literature or documentation on the degree of which wind speeds affect snow ratios? I’d be curious too.... some of the fluffiest snow I’ve seen on the mountain can be associated with just ripping NW gales. Can get 40:1 ratios with no resistance at all on 30-40kt winds. I’ve always thought those flakes don’t seem to “crash and fracture” as much for whatever reason, maybe because they have such low water in them to begin with? A heavier dendrite in a nor’easter might fracture and compact? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I’d be curious too.... some of the fluffiest snow I’ve seen on the mountain can be associated with just ripping NW gales. Can get 40:1 ratios with no resistance at all on 30-40kt winds. I’ve always thought those flakes don’t seem to “crash and fracture” as much for whatever reason, maybe because they have such low water in them to begin with? A heavier dendrite in a nor’easter might fracture and compact? IMO, dendrite formation trumps wind when considering ratios. The 2 storms of Dec. 2003 seem to illustrate this (or something.) Both were 100% snow with temps in the teens. On 12/6-7 we had 24" with ratio of 14.7 and on 12/15 we had 13" with ratio of 8.5. The earlier storm was one of 4 events in 21+ winters to meet blizzard criteria, with gusts to 40+ and enormous drifting. The 2nd storm had modest wind and little blew around. Something beyond wind was going on. OTOH, my most recent blizzard, with winds at least as strong as 12/6-7/03, was Pi Day 2017, and brought 15.5" with ratio 7.3, all snow at low 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 We lost the muthafukkas at 12z. In fact, we probably lost them at 0z. About time to punt here. GL inland folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 6+8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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