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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Euro is even a bit stronger with primary this run....not that impressed with the thump. A few good hours of snow, but prob like 2-5" for most of SNE. Maybe spot 6" northern interior.

The dynamics are compromised a bit with that ridiculous primary. We want a hint of redevelopment (triple point) because that is how you get those bent back ML fronts....we don't really have that on this look.

 

It's even a fairly tepid event for NNE because of this...maybe 5-7 deal there until you get into N ME.

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

I know we're not at the long-awaited pattern change, but this series of misses (if this does in fact cut) is a real downer.

But you were informed that this cold cut..or become a slop event days ago.  It's been a possibility all along.  But there is still a long way to go with this too.

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Just now, dendrite said:

I recall talking about the soundings, but not the multiple 2D map levels. Maybe I just missed them there.

Yea i remember mentioning it, we werent able to see anything but surface really and snow maps, now they have 925, 850, 700, 500, 300, 200mb levels for vorticity, rh, temp, height, it's great.

Paid sites must hate this, they are going to take a hit for sure.

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Perhaps a case of correlation is not causation; but the 18th is starting to look a lot more like a storm overlaid with the MJO phase 6 in mid January. It was what I cautioned with anyway... Just sayin’

Still time to change. But feeling more confident that this not a winter storm for the bulk of us—me included. 

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2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

NYC is doing absolutely awful so far, barely over 2", not even one good event there just all tenths adding up.

I have about 6” and I’m 30 miles East of the city, but yeah-putrid so far here. Newark has a little over 5” this season. The city itself lost out on some marginal events that accumulated more outside the city. But being halfway through met winter and having 6” or less is quite depressing. 

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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

NYC is doing absolutely awful so far, barely over 2", not even one good event there just all tenths adding up.

Yeah them and I think Philly is even worse....my guess is theyll score in the upcoming pattern sometime between Jan 22-Feb 5 or so.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah them and I think Philly is even worse....my guess is theyll score in the upcoming pattern sometime between Jan 22-Feb 5 or so.

Yeah, Philadelphia is at less then a inch. It would be fitting for that to happen next week. The storm coming into the northwest is kicking the ridge East. It’s not a bad pattern for a southeast snowstorm lol. But I agree, we will have chance in this pattern. Eventually something will work for us down here.

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21 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

NYC is doing absolutely awful so far, barely over 2", not even one good event there just all tenths adding up.

 

I mean only 7" here...and I wouldn't consider any of the events I've had "good". Even the 3" event I had back in December left very little on the pavement. On the bright side...at least there won't be much/any snow on the ground to insulate the ticks for next weeks arctic blast

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