January 2020 Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

Jan 1913 and 1932 were basically an entire month of what the first 13 days of January 2020 have been....like a +10 to +11 for entire month....we won't repeat though...decent chance we trim the departures down to like +2 to +4 or so by end of month...except BOS you can just add 2 degrees of departure to what places like ORH/PVD put up.

[Torch Tiger]

Cold, wintry end to January, maybe a storm 1/27 or so but most likely slim pickings until then. 

[dryslot]

56 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lars is going to be at SR for a week starting Friday

Perfect timing for him.

[weathafella]

Who is Lars again?

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 1913 and 1932 were basically an entire month of what the first 13 days of January 2020 have been....like a +10 to +11 for entire month....we won't repeat though...decent chance we trim the departures down to like +2 to +4 or so by end of month...except BOS you can just add 2 degrees of departure to what places like ORH/PVD put up.

I don't think a warm 2nd half of the month ...anywhere close to the caliber of those departures in either empirical or sensible, are in the offings... no.  Agreed. 

I've opined in recent days, but the 00z runs, ...across the board, are really brilliantly in coherent agreement, that the HC is going to pass through a 'deflation' of sorts.   

Looking at that 7.5 thru D10 of any model type one chooses, the heights along the 35th parallel ( and beneath ) shed some 4 to 6 DM everywhere.  This immediately, though perhaps not as readily observable to the lay-person, connotes a relaxation in the velocties everywhere, as the total integral space between boreal hemispheric heights gradate less against the southern girdle.  

That's A   ... and it pertains more so for cyclone morphology and behavior as we turn the page into a new hemispheric look. 

B,   is that the R-wave rollouts, that super-impose their ridging over the top of the previous HC, will no longer get that "synergistic" feed-back/hyper constructive wave interference(s) ... This recent variation on that was truly extraordinary - quite likely an event whose seriousness and specter was "hidden" by the fact that it happened in January. Such that a couple of 70 degree days weren't more than forgetting head-scratching curiosities for most in society, regardless of ilk, trade and creed.  But if that sucker had happened in f'um July ?  ..separate discussion ..but it may not be able to. For one, in July you don't have orderly R-wave rollouts so.. that kind of jams up the super-position necessity in that ...etc...etc..  

Anyway, with that loss of 'B', and the other signals which are featuring a very powerful MJO phase punching through 7 --> 8 and quite likely into 1 and 2 but we'll see..those phase states tend to presage a -AO... 'Correction vectoring' wouldn't be pointed up I don't think -  

[weathafella]

That’s a great antecedent for the weekend system.  If we can maintain some ageo we can all have some fun.

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That’s a great antecedent for the weekend system.  If we can maintain some ageo we can all have some fun.

SE Ridge needs to be taken to the woodshed so the storm can push further south.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

SE Ridge needs to be taken to the woodshed so the storm can push further south.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

SE Ridge needs to be taken to the woodshed so the storm can push further south.

Yup .. it's a race!

I mentioned this yesterday ... that system this weekend is still being "squeezed" so to speak in a fast hemisphere... What it really boils down to is large-scale -vs- short wave length scaled destructive interference.   The fast flow robs mechanical wind strength from the S/W's.. It's almost like 'geo-physical' taxes are too high, and there's only so much money left to throw the parties.  

Seriously though, the models seem to take the path of least resistance at this range.   One thing about the GFS, I really don't think that model is the best choice for these "swfe" set ups... It's dubious, native handling of the BL thermodynamics plays a critical roll in whether it is correctly assessing that, which takes a specific, targeted ability to be assessed properly.  

It is after the weekend ordeal that the ridge begins to decay/ lose it's anchoring in a more visceral way...  What's interesting, though that is true in all guidance... the models are not really "filling the void" with a new look yet. As of last check, the GEFs tellies still like the +PNA mode shift so maybe it's just a matter of time. 

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't think a warm 2nd half of the month ...anywhere close to the caliber of those departures in either empirical or sensible, are in the offings... no.  Agreed. 

I've opined in recent days, but the 00z runs, ...across the board, are really brilliantly in coherent agreement, that the HC is going to pass through a 'deflation' of sorts.   

Looking at that 7.5 thru D10 of any model type one chooses, the heights along the 35th parallel ( and beneath ) shed some 4 to 6 DM everywhere.  This immediately, though perhaps not as readily observable to the lay-person, connotes a relaxation in the velocties everywhere, as the total integral space between boreal hemispheric heights gradate less against the southern girdle.  

That's A   ... and it pertains more so for cyclone morphology and behavior as we turn the page into a new hemispheric look. 

B,   is that the R-wave rollouts, that super-impose their ridging over the top of the previous HC, will no longer get that "synergistic" feed-back/hyper constructive wave interference(s) ... This recent variation on that was truly extraordinary - quite likely an event whose seriousness and specter was "hidden" by the fact that it happened in January. Such that a couple of 70 degree days weren't more than forgetting head-scratching curiosities for most in society, regardless of ilk, trade and creed.  But if that sucker had happened in f'um July ?  ..separate discussion ..but it may not be able to. For one, in July you don't have orderly R-wave rollouts so.. that kind of jams up the super-position necessity in that ...etc...etc..  

Anyway, with that loss of 'B', and the other signals which are featuring a very powerful MJO phase punching through 7 --> 8 and quite likely into 1 and 2 but we'll see..those phase states tend to presage a -AO... 'Correction vectoring' wouldn't be pointed up I don't think -  

I was actually going to post this yesterday (but then got distracted) in response to one of your posts because you mention it a lot...and did so again here....but yeah, check out the loss of heights down in the subtropical region in the gulf of Mexico, Florida, etc....that 570/576dm height lines have basically replaced the 582s and 588s that have dominated so far.

 

 

 

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup .. it's a race!

I mentioned this yesterday ... that system this weekend is still being "squeezed" so to speak in a fast hemisphere... What it really boils down to is large-scale -vs- short wave length scaled destructive interference.   The fast flow robs mechanical wind strength from the S/W's.. It's almost like 'geo-physical' taxes are too high, and there's only so much money left to throw the parties.  

Seriously though, the models seem to take the path of least resistance at this range.   One thing about the GFS, I really don't think that model is the best choice for these "swfe" set ups... It's dubious, native handling of the BL thermaldynamics plays a critical roll in whether it is correctly assessing that, which takes a specific, targeted ability to be assessed properly.  

It’s only an Op run but at 90 hours on the 06z Euro you can really see what I was concerned about yesterday.  That thing looks like it’s about to get grinded up.  Not due to confluence but just the general setup is likely not going to enable this to have the shortwave energy or WAA to blast a snow shield way out ahead of it before everyone sees their winds go southerly.  Someone in the MA forum posted the idea as well that he would rather see this thing at this stage be more dynamic because even though it’ll guarantee more areas flip over it should produce more WAA snow in advance in such a setup 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup .. it's a race!

I mentioned this yesterday ... that system this weekend is still being "squeezed" so to speak in a fast hemisphere... What it really boils down to is large-scale -vs- short wave length scaled destructive interference.   The fast flow robs mechanical wind strength from the S/W's.. It's almost like 'geo-physical' taxes are too high, and there's only so much money left to throw the parties.  

Seriously though, the models seem to take the path of least resistance at this range.   One thing about the GFS, I really don't think that model is the best choice for these "swfe" set ups... It's dubious, native handling of the BL thermaldynamics plays a critical roll in whether it is correctly assessing that, which takes a specific, targeted ability to be assessed properly.  

Just look at how compressed the flow is over the Midwest.  There is no where for the storm to go but up into the GL.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Well that upper air pattern tells the tale. Not exactly the look you want to see for EC cyclones albeit way up in NS

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s only an Op run but at 90 hours on the 06z Euro you can really see what I was concerned about yesterday.  That thing looks like it’s about to get grinded up.  Not due to confluence but just the general setup is likely not going to enable this to have the shortwave energy or WAA to blast a snow shield way out ahead of it before everyone sees their winds go southerly.  Someone in the MA forum posted the idea as well that he would rather see this thing at this stage be more dynamic because even though it’ll guarantee more areas flip over it should produce more WAA snow in advance in such a setup 

Hey ..I don't actually have access to 06z Euro?  Is that as easy as googling?  I guess I'll give it a try but I loathe googling these days, for two reasons:  The world is only motivated for money; greed in doing so .. These two make the Internet almost useless now.  You have to actually be given, cut and paste links from text streams by others who have demonstrated patience in dealing with said greed stuck quagmire of life-thefting time waste.  I mean, we have quad process core, quantum computers that hour-glass trying to sift through ad space and petty dime making schemes.  wow - 

Anyway, I rant...do you have that link ( haha)

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You and I share in this trait ... the ability to turn the page and get going with new paradigms, on a dime - for me, it can be moments.. I've noticed this in the past.  

I used to not be that way; in my youth, I started loathing the sun, its self, in late September.  If we had snow by Thanks Giggedy that was miracle. 

Very brief digression: That's what's fascinating about CC in this recent two decade -worth of it ... It seems to have/be parlaying into cocaine tastes in October.. like, shockingly often compared to the previous billion years of climo. 

Not in the 1980s, man. Never.  I mean, it seemed to rarely snow in that decade anyway, ha..  But hyperbole aside, these early snow ( forget accumulation, even the privilege of being seen in the air!) and the increasing frequency, these are counter-intuitively coincident with the climate curve.    

Anyway, in my youth, when that was not the case, thick autumn was my most dreaded time of the year... Circa Sept 21 through November 27 ..because it was just unrelentingly boring. I didn't care about leaf foliage. Hot totties were not going to be legal for another 5 years, and I wasn't good enough at sports to get laid in High School. The weather channel offered my only solace, which I competed for TV time in a house-hold with 7 other siblings and a network news happy relic of Gronkite era, dad, who would park, fingers tucked into the belt of his pants after work, for 2 hours every day.  I was that prototypical target with no clue in social circles... Need any more paint on this canvas?   And of course as cosmic timing would have it, the climate of the 1980s was my fledgling weather nerd coming of age. The cruel 1980s.

See, y'all Millennials have been handed out stimulus and conveniences for life and feeling good, early snows and/or weather bombs in general ( if weather is your thing) like Pez candies ... Kinda like the same generation now is entitled to the Patriots making the playoffs - if not the superbowl.  There are kids born, raised, and now sophomores in college, ..the whole way passing into sentience, that must think Patriots NFL dominance is like E=MC2 ... Part of the natural order of the fundamental physics governing reality or something...

Wrong.  It's extraordinary just exactly how the climate has changed, in an era of conveniences ... to situate snow, cold and bomb cyclones with the same delivery of convenience. To completely ...seemingly unrelated events of nature, coming to an constructive interference like that. That's ..incredible. But what is a matter for a different genre, that convenience appears unhealthy in a lot of ways. And the weather as it comes on portable tech, in these "blue magic" psychotropic packets every 6 hours to offer fresh jolts of e-zombie rushes, and if the richness of that big storm and drama is violated in any way, that sets them off.   Yeah, another form in what Luis C. K. once mused, ..prior to the over-zealous Me-Too bullshit sacking his career too: "Every thing is awesome and nobody is happy." 

I covet god's abuses, for having arranged for my birth when it happened, thus, my growth in pig-shit karma.  It made me iron-hulled as an adult.  And, in addition to being more impervious to inconveniences, it's allowed me to see the humor in watching said Mellennails expressions when truth punches a hole in the balloon of their delusions of reality grandeur. In fact, anywhere in society where people are stunned in a state of, "Whaaaaa - " as if some sacrosanct violation needs to be sent thru litigation because the sugar's not right in their drive-thru Dunkin Donuts stop.  Believe me, these people react and it is either funny .. or embarrassing to watch.  

Anyway, as an adult I've just sort of lost any preconceptions/expectation, and I do think it has to do with years of being jaded and punished with unrelenting losses in this weather passion - abuses that we do to our selves, frankly. 

If a pattern changes warm in January or February... particularly true in March ... takes me an hour tops to sans the nostalgia for that cold regime, in lieu of wanting to see how warm it gets.  

Lies; of the bold-faced variety...

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lies; of the bold-faced variety...

It was brief.

Brevity was between that statement, and "anyway" which in literary mechanics, rejoins the previous discussion.  Which was a brief paragraph...

The lucidity in here leaves much to be desired at times... oy

If y'all don't like long posts, don't read 'em.   I know...an unbearably novel idea there, huh.   And anyone that claims it's "too much to scroll" anything really needs to walk down the center lane of I-95 between Burlington Mass and Waltham at 5:15 on a Tuesday -

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It was brief.

Brevity was between that statement, and "anyway" which in literary mechanics, rejoins the previous discussion.  Which was a brief paragraph...

The lucidity in here leaves much to be desired at times... oy

If y'all don't like long posts, don't read 'em.   I know...an unbearably novel idea there, huh.   And anyone that claims it's "too much to scroll" anything really needs to walk down the center lane of I-95 between Burlington Mass and Waltham at 5:15 on a Tuesday -

I'm quite lucid, chief...it was a joke.

Not my fault that your sense of humor blows-

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm quite lucid, chief...it was a joke.

Not my fault that your sense of humor blows-

I was laughing when I wrote my reply    The pun was "unbearable novel" ?

goes both ways.. 

there's no cadence, Ray - you can't make "jokes" without tone.  blah blah  

[Chrisrotary12]

You know what would be helpful?  If someone who is good at computer graphics could create a composite snowfall map from the last 10 SWFEs.  Then when one shows up in the models, we would all know what we are getting....plus/minus X% based on anticipated storm characteristics. I'll gladly take the standard 6" from a SWFE right now.  At least cover up the dead.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

You know what would be helpful?  If someone who is good at computer graphics could create a composite snowfall map from the last 10 SWFEs.  Then when one shows up in the models, we would all know what we are getting....plus/minus X% based on anticipated storm characteristics. I'll gladly take the standard 6" from a SWFE right now.  At least cover up the dead.

Sounds like a job for, da-da-da-da, dadaaaaa....Super @ORH_wxman

[weathafella]

Pretty much staying the course at 12z.   2-6 for sne dependent on latitude and longitude.  6-10 NNE but including northern 495 belt of sne 

[dryslot]

Pretty much your standard SWFE up here.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Primary few clicks stronger on 12z GFS vs 06z

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 1913 and 1932 were basically an entire month of what the first 13 days of January 2020 have been....like a +10 to +11 for entire month....we won't repeat though...decent chance we trim the departures down to like +2 to +4 or so by end of month...except BOS you can just add 2 degrees of departure to what places like ORH/PVD put up.

Maybe pull another 06-07 reversal?  (For more than just NNE this time?)  For the 67 days from Nov. 8 thru Jan. 13 our temps were +7.0.  Then the next 55 thru March 9 temps were -7.6.  On the 13th, Jan. temps were +11.3 and total snow to date was 11.0".  From the 14th thru April 18 temps ran -4.8 and we had 84.4" snow.  Farmington co-op recorded 36.1" for April, highest by 12.1" since records began in 1893, and that's with the bust on the Patriots' Day storm, 10-16" forecast verifying at 4-5" of mush plus an equal amount of catpaws RA.

[NYCweatherNOW]

GFS IS TRASH!

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

GFS IS TRASH!

Without even looking ( then ) ... can we assume that the run has a historic blizzard for everyone from D.C. to Maine  -  ...just spit ballin' but it seems pretty clear based upon your jest, that's what this 12z guidance must be indicating. 

 

heh

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

SWFE ARE TRASH FOR NYC!

Climo, NYCweatherNOW.....NYCweatherNOW, climo....time for you both to become acquainted-

[40/70 Benchmark]

Seems like some inconspicuously bought the rogue Miller B-GFS run over the weekend because I don't get the sense of shock here...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Damn, midweek continues to ooze big dog potential. 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

But, wouldn’t you agree that WRT climo, one would argue this is about that time of winter when NYC should be in play?