January 2020 Discussion

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah agreed.... the skiing stuff is crap....mom and pop ski areas used to function sometimes for like 20-30 days out of the winter...whenever they had natural snowfall, and they'd be closed when a cutter wiped it out. Most of them closed because of a combo of interstate highways making the larger mountains more accessible and the rise of lawsuits which small areas mostly couldn't afford to deal with. CC had very little to do with it....most of them actually closed during a very cold period in the 1970s. I learned to ski on absolute garbage in the 1990-1992 timeframe. We had bare ground on half of the killington ski trails and the ones that had snow were like icy death ribbons. I could only have been so lucky to learn to ski in the 2010s when ski trails have been mostly packed to brim with snow.

 

This myth that we had some sort of skiing utopia where Joe's ski hill in Southington CT could be open 90 days a winter with full cover is totally a figment of climate weenie's imagination.

 

Being critical of that 20th century utopia narrative does NOT make one a climate denier either...I hear that garbage all the time too from climate weenies...usually in an attempt to shut down the debate...it's easier to paint one with a pejorative than actually read some literature or look at data. Hyping up a narrative is just as bad as discounting climate change exists....both are anti-science.

 

CC makes a torch more likely...events like March 2012 are more likely due to CC as well as torch winters like 2015-2016, and those record warm months that come with such winters. But on the flip side, this seems to be offset somewhat by more snowfall in recent years. Could be a result of more moisture and also an increase in frequency of the "warm arctic, cold continents" pattern. The temperature increase is also not uniform. The minimum temperatures are increasing about 40% faster than maximum temperatures mostly due to radiational cooling on clear nights....and because of this, it will have less impact on a snowstorm or snow retention versus if the temperature increase was uniformly increasing. Whether we radiate to 12F versus 14F or 15F isn't going to impact a snowstorm as much as maximum temperatures in cloudy/precipitation situations. Our winter time maximum temperatures are warming at roughly 0.35F per decade while the minimum temps are like 0.4 to 0.5F per decade.

The mid-level temps for New England in the D,J,F period have warmed even slower than the surface and this is important since mid-level temps are more important to our snowfall than sfc temps...as far back as we can go (1949), the trend has only been about 0.13C per decade, which comes out to about 0.23F per decade converted into Fahrenheit....even slower than our maximum sfc temp rise and about half the rate of the minimum sfc temp rise.

 

 

 

 

In the literature, extratropical storm tracks overall have shifted slightly poleward in our area since the middle 20th century, but not enough to explain a cutter over Buffalo versus a redeveloper over Cape Cod...that difference is way beyond the net effects of CC. I think the easiest way to think of CC is that it is an underlying trend that gets dwarfed on a seasonal and sub-seasonal basis by natural variability. We can't get our coldest month of all time (Feb 2015) in a world where CC warming overwhelms natural variability on that type of timescale. The months like February 2015 become less likely in a warming world, but they still obviously happen. It happened in 1934....and we somehow repeated those temps (and then some) 81 years later. Likewise, 1949 is still the warmest summer on record in Massachusetts....CC warming will eventually ensure that we break that record, but we haven't broken it yet because natural variability still reigns supreme for the time being.

Where do they hold data for levels like 850mb? I haven’t seen that. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Where do they hold data for levels like 850mb? I haven’t seen that. 

You can grab it here:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries/

 

You gotta make your own time series and plug in the coordinate bounds otherwise you'll get the entire globe, lol. And to get the trend, I just copied the data to excel as you can see above and plotted it on a graph and stuck a linear regression trend line in there.

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You can grab it here:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries/

 

You gotta make your own time series and plug in the coordinate bounds otherwise you'll get the entire globe, lol. And to get the trend, I just copied the data to excel as you can see above and plotted it on a graph and stuck a linear regression trend line in there.

 

Oh cool. I’ll have to play around with that. Thanks.

[CoastalWx]

Gfs looking CAD-ish next storm.

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said:

As others have mentioned, politics has always been in everything. What you're describing is a combination of the flattening of the meaning of knowledge and political belief being used as a proxy for personal morality. The hyper-availability of knowledge via the internet has placed the traditional gatekeepers of knowledge (i.e. experts or those with professional qualifications) on a level playing field with literally anyone and their Mom. Combine that with elevating "I'm just asking questions" and the idea that everything is always debatable and...well, here we are.

The earth is flat and vaccines are bad....This is still a debate despite the year 2019/2020, we should be well past those debates unless new science based facts are brought forward. I think the main issue begins when one comes off as correct despite absolutely no scientific evidence available to one's argument. Sadly the days of having a good scientific debate based on facts has come to end....

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, PWMan said:

First time posting this season... I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that the pages of climate-change discussion indicate a lack of snow threats in the immediately foreseeable future.

God, we need a bonafide snow threat.

[OSUmetstud]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can grab it here:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries/

 

You gotta make your own time series and plug in the coordinate bounds otherwise you'll get the entire globe, lol. And to get the trend, I just copied the data to excel as you can see above and plotted it on a graph and stuck a linear regression trend line in there.

 

Nice. I find it interesting theres no signal here. I think were too correlated to winter blocking regimes...50s warm...80s cold. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Someone creat a climate change thread.

[Hazey]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs looking CAD-ish next storm.

Yup i have been noticing subtle signs of it trending that way. Icon has been leaning that way too. This might turn into a sneaky event if trends continue. Nothing else to watch.

[Spanks45]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Someone creat a climate change thread.

Pattern change thread?

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Someone creat a MELT thread.

 

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, Hazey said:

Yup i have been noticing subtle signs of it trending that way. Icon has been leaning that way too. This might turn into a sneaky event if trends continue. Nothing else to watch.

So close. 

[A Moonlit Sky]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

Pattern change thread?

What kind of sacrifices do we have to make to get the pattern to change? Goats? Bulls?

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs looking CAD-ish next storm.

Uh huh preach more scooter

[Hazey]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

So close. 

Lots of time still.

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, Hazey said:

Lots of time still.

Yeah. That's the saying grace with this one. Ensembles have been generally over top of us. 

[moneypitmike]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah agreed.... the skiing stuff is crap....mom and pop ski areas used to function sometimes for like 20-30 days out of the winter...whenever they had natural snowfall, and they'd be closed when a cutter wiped it out. Most of them closed because of a combo of interstate highways making the larger mountains more accessible and the rise of lawsuits which small areas mostly couldn't afford to deal with. CC had very little to do with it....most of them actually closed during a very cold period in the 1970s. I learned to ski on absolute garbage in the 1990-1992 timeframe. We had bare ground on half of the killington ski trails and the ones that had snow were like icy death ribbons. I could only have been so lucky to learn to ski in the 2010s when ski trails have been mostly packed to brim with snow.

 

This myth that we had some sort of skiing utopia where Joe's ski hill in Southington CT could be open 90 days a winter with full cover is totally a figment of climate weenie's imagination.

 

Being critical of that 20th century utopia narrative does NOT make one a climate denier either...I hear that garbage all the time too from climate weenies...usually in an attempt to shut down the debate...it's easier to paint one with a pejorative than actually read some literature or look at data. Hyping up a narrative is just as bad as discounting climate change exists....both are anti-science.

 

CC makes a torch more likely...events like March 2012 are more likely due to CC as well as torch winters like 2015-2016, and those record warm months that come with such winters. But on the flip side, this seems to be offset somewhat by more snowfall in recent years. Could be a result of more moisture and also an increase in frequency of the "warm arctic, cold continents" pattern. The temperature increase is also not uniform. The minimum temperatures are increasing about 40% faster than maximum temperatures mostly due to radiational cooling on clear nights....and because of this, it will have less impact on a snowstorm or snow retention versus if the temperature increase was uniformly increasing. Whether we radiate to 12F versus 14F or 15F isn't going to impact a snowstorm as much as maximum temperatures in cloudy/precipitation situations. Our winter time maximum temperatures are warming at roughly 0.35F per decade while the minimum temps are like 0.4 to 0.5F per decade.

The mid-level temps for New England in the D,J,F period have warmed even slower than the surface and this is important since mid-level temps are more important to our snowfall than sfc temps...as far back as we can go (1949), the trend has only been about 0.13C per decade, which comes out to about 0.23F per decade converted into Fahrenheit....even slower than our maximum sfc temp rise and about half the rate of the minimum sfc temp rise.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How dare you????!!!!

[CoastalWx]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Uh huh preach more scooter

It looks wedgy where you are into Nrn Ma on gfs. Granted it may not be below freezing but just saying. 

[moneypitmike]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It looks wedgy where you are into Nrn Ma on gfs. Granted it may not be below freezing but just saying. 

Colder rain, ftw. Or is that ftl?

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It looks wedgy where you are into Nrn Ma on gfs. Granted it may not be below freezing but just saying. 

A little bit like this last event that was forecast to be warm and rainy? Maybe not that cold but enough to keep the snow pack and perhaps than a good event a few days later

[Ginx snewx]

Fukin climate change has its own subforum. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Colder rain, ftw. Or is that ftl?

Doubt there would be much in the way of ice with that...maybe at the onset.

[CoastalWx]

It’s not meant to be CC. It’s stemmed from an earlier discussion. 

[OSUmetstud]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Fukin climate change has its own subforum. 

Triggered

[Damage In Tolland]

Dandy to Dryslot will end up with a net gain out of this next one. Hunch and ORH keep their pack wedged in until fropa. You know exactly how these play out 

[ORH_wxman]

The next system could end as a bit of snow...NNE may even get accumulations at the end. Down here, prob not more than flakes, but if that upper level energy trends stronger at the base of the trough, then even down here could see a bit....just something to keep half an eye on as we wait to see how the 1/8 time period unfolds.

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not meant to be CC. It’s stemmed from an earlier discussion. 

I think it’s OK to bring in the potential impact of climate change on weather patterns particularly when it’s relevant to current patterns. I’m sorry if that triggers people but it’s relevant as long as it doesn’t move into a discussion that’s only about climate change.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Triggered

Yea OK doomer

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Yea OK doomer

Yeah ok snowflake. 

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Yea OK doomer

Wtf are you talking about? I didn't say anything about catastrophic climate change. Theres something wrong with you man.