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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

eitherway Maine, NH, VT do well on the weekend, MA/CT/RI up in the air 

They will stay all snow but the forward speed of the system, (potential) lack of coastal redevelopment and possibility of shredding a bit could all mean the difference between 10" and 5-6". 

We switched our plans from going N this weekend to doing so a few weeks from now hoping for some base building.  I don't mind missing the storm up there since February will hopefully offer more terrain.

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5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Typical SWFE depicted on the GFS. Most in SNE won’t escape the taint. 

They never do. It’s probably an easy call this far out barring some miller B transition. 1-3” coast to quick ice to rain. 2-4” pike south to sleet to .10-.25 zr maybe hits 32-33 then ends as snow as ULL slides underneath with 3-6” or 4-8” ORH north and east with sleet getting up into SNH for a few hours before back to snow and Ray mentioning thats exactly what he forecast. It probably goes something like that .

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I swear ... no model can seemingly deliberately take such a golden pattern, replete with so many signal after signal, and find the least exciting solution imaginable relative to each one of those signals, ... with the stunning zeal and shimmering panache as the f'n GFS.  My god. Four charts in I knew what it was selling so I just rolled the mouse wheel like my eyes right to the end of that banality.

Sometimes I wonder, do the NCEP modelers actually put algorithms in the model to mute things from happening - like...on purpose.    "Hey Frank - did you hit American forum for the -...right. Thought so.  Okay, Dave. Hit it! I just spoke to Frank; it's time to head-f social media and fire of the other model version"

 

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This weekend system reminds me of a weaker version of 12/9/09. That one had like 977mb into Lake Huron...but a similar high setup. Coast didn't do well in that but inland outside of 128 and even down through most of CT got a solid 5-8" with 8-12" up near northern MA border. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This weekend system reminds me of a weaker version of 12/9/09. That one had like 977mb into Lake Huron...but a similar high setup. Coast didn't do well in that but inland outside of 128 and even down through most of CT got a solid 5-8" with 8-12" up near northern MA border. 

Any chance being 5.5 weeks later helps out those on the coast this go around?

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This weekend system reminds me of a weaker version of 12/9/09. That one had like 977mb into Lake Huron...but a similar high setup. Coast didn't do well in that but inland outside of 128 and even down through most of CT got a solid 5-8" with 8-12" up near northern MA border. 

Going 2-4” to ice interior CT. Thump seems middle class of road .

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3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Any chance being 5.5 weeks later helps out those on the coast this go around?

Yeah probably. I remember the immediate coast getting hardly anything. You'd prob get a few inches this time. 

But this could obviously change a lot still. It's 5 days out. Kind of hard to believe since it's been on the models for 3-4 days already. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah probably. I remember the immediate coast getting hardly anything. You'd prob get a few inches this time. 

But this could obviously change a lot still. It's 5 days out. Kind of hard to believe since it's been on the models for 3-4 days already. 

Expectations are low. One of these will eventually break right for us immediate coastal dwellers. Doubt it’s this one though. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah probably. I remember the immediate coast getting hardly anything. You'd prob get a few inches this time. 

But this could obviously change a lot still. It's 5 days out. Kind of hard to believe since it's been on the models for 3-4 days already. 

I’ve seen so far this season where models trend colder as a shortwave swings through the north almost like it’s overdoing the staying power of the high. Then, when the energy departs we trend warmer almost like they are saying, “oh yea it’s a progressive flow the high has to get shoved out.” In the end, it net outs where the d5/d6 solutions are more right then wrong.

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