RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Ya' Euro is a lot more wound up and W than any other model but lets see how they all trend the next 48 hours. If Euro stays outlier I won't be as concerned. Still some decent cold to work with (does it "press"? )but I can't handle another sleet fest, although my woods are melted out front yard is still a glacier. That Euro depiction would torch the mid-levels, again. I’ll take a sleet fest at this point. Tired of the rain. This looks like some fun early Saturday but if gets washed away...annoying again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 It’s Monday . The storm is Saturday into Sunday and people are calling rain /snow/ mix lines and worrying. It’s coming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd still take that run....some taint, but good thump first. I just want everything covered again with several inches and then work from there when the good pattern sets in. Yeah, that’s some Barney colored type cold coming after this system. Would be nice to lay some snow down for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s Monday . The storm is Saturday into Sunday and people are calling rain /snow/ mix lines and worrying. It’s coming Of course there's plenty of time to adjust but I think people can't help but take this season's trends into account when considering what can go wrong as far as snow chances are concerned. If models show a 990mb primary cutting into the lakes it will not exactly fill me with snow confidence. No matter what, we definitely don't want to see any weakening of the cold to our N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I would think the dynamics argue for a stronger primary this weekend, however, that doesn't necessarily correlate to flooding of warmer air...still plenty of discrepancies regarding the exact track and that may make the ultimate difference. All in all this is looking like a rather dynamic and intense storm with a wide range of impacts. One of the more concerning issues may be how H7 evolves and tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s Monday . The storm is Saturday into Sunday and people are calling rain /snow/ mix lines and worrying. It’s coming The Reverend “Rev Kev”motoring on through.. Its day 5... could rain to Maine or snow in NYC at this lead time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Sure but the over amped primary is a head scratcher. Everything else has been trending weaker it. We’ll see. I’d sell that amped primary. The Euro has barfed on itself plenty this year. Either way... still a thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: or the KMA, JMA, ICON, ARPEGE, NAVY KMA? Kate Moss Agency for modeling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d sell that amped primary. The Euro has barfed on itself plenty this year. Either way... still a thump But if it showed a foot you'd be humping it, We all know the drill in here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d sell that amped primary. The Euro has barfed on itself plenty this year. Either way... still a thump It’s the way I’m leaning. Just don’t rain too much after the thump though. All I ask. Do what you can to make that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d sell that amped primary. The Euro has barfed on itself plenty this year. Either way... still a thump I would not call a few inches a "thump". 6"+ min before a changeover is a thump in my books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: KMA? Kate Moss Agency for modeling? Are you a noob? https://web.kma.go.kr/eng/biz/forecast_02.jsp It's the Korean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 25 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Have at it. I'm with Scooter, I'm done with primaries shooting 1000mi W of us and we are left to the whims of taint lines Meh, it's gonna get cold and I'd rather not have bare ground for it. Euro is still close to warning snowfall here and that's fine with me. I have never been on the "all snow" train with this event. I've said it looks like a pretty typical SWFE from days ago so my expectations have never exceeded that. That said, I agree I'd like the primary toned down a bit...that would make the snowfall more enhanced here and last longer. Euro is definitely the most amped on the primary, but other guidance isn't that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I would not call a few inches a "thump". 6"+ min before a changeover is a thump in my books. Yeah... the euro doesn’t get us 6” but the gfs does” so I guess a blend is 3-6”?. Either way, long way to go. And the seasonal trend has been to pull the rug last minute, so I would not be surprised at all if the euro and other models are too amped with the primary. That seems entirely plausible to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s Monday . The storm is Saturday into Sunday and people are calling rain /snow/ mix lines and worrying. It’s coming Ya , your the one who will bring order lolllll 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Are you a noob? https://web.kma.go.kr/eng/biz/forecast_02.jsp It's the Korean no one ever talks about that thing and ive never looked at it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Meh, it's gonna get cold and I'd rather not have bare ground for it. Euro is still close to warning snowfall here and that's fine with me. I have never been on the "all snow" train with this event. I've said it looks like a pretty typical SWFE from days ago so my expectations have never exceeded that. That said, I agree I'd like the primary toned down a bit...that would make the snowfall more enhanced here and last longer. Euro is definitely the most amped on the primary, but other guidance isn't that far off. Yup, get away from the coast, and all bets are off. You know the drill here. It is only Monday, so I am by no means throwing in the towel on anything meaningful here, I'm just not optimistic at all. Seasonal tenor has flipped 180 from early December and until I see solutions to be optimistic about, I fall back to recent ones for what can occur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Euro looks interesting for mid next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... the euro doesn’t get us 6” but the gfs does” so I guess a blend is 3-6”?. Either way, long way to go. And the seasonal trend has been to pull the rug last minute, so I would not be surprised at all if the euro and other models are too amped with the primary. That seems entirely plausible to me Where were you seeing 6" on the GFS? That was well N and W of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Where were you seeing 6" on the GFS? That was well N and W of us. He appears to struggle with those maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Thru snow goggles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I know everyone is focused on the weekend system. Anyone have any thoughts on the following week. Looks pretty quiet until later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro looks interesting for mid next week. Ensembles are hinting at it too...a bit too far east at the moment, but watchable. The natural instinct is going to be for people to be pessimistic if this weekend turns into an ugly system.....but I'm pretty confident there are going to be a lot of potential storm threats in the 2 weeks after that....it's a really good pattern setting up. This weekend's threat is really before that happens. It's right as the first western ridge is trying to build. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ensembles are hinting at it too...a bit too far east at the moment, but watchable. The natural instinct is going to be for people to be pessimistic if this weekend turns into an ugly system.....but I'm pretty confident there are going to be a lot of potential storm threats in the 2 weeks after that....it's a really good pattern setting up. This weekend's threat is really before that happens. It's right as the first western ridge is trying to build. Wasn't around the 20th time frame that most were targeting as the start? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ensembles are hinting at it too...a bit too far east at the moment, but watchable. The natural instinct is going to be for people to be pessimistic if this weekend turns into an ugly system.....but I'm pretty confident there are going to be a lot of potential storm threats in the 2 weeks after that....it's a really good pattern setting up. This weekend's threat is really before that happens. It's right as the first western ridge is trying to build. It’s the type of pattern where mid range is too offshore but then we get the NW ticks inside D5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Yeah the gfs wasn’t as good as I thoughT... must have been looking at 6z because I figured even lobbing off non snow it was still close to half a foot... not the case at 12z though. Well see what happens.... for the past month... we’ve had basically nada here... so as far as this weekend is concerned, a net gain is welcome. It doesn’t look summery, so mine as well snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ensembles are hinting at it too...a bit too far east at the moment, but watchable. The natural instinct is going to be for people to be pessimistic if this weekend turns into an ugly system.....but I'm pretty confident there are going to be a lot of potential storm threats in the 2 weeks after that....it's a really good pattern setting up. Been a signal for a while now that eventually the Pacific was going to begin changing and we'll eventually get higher heights into the PNA region...and in an area which would lead to favorable downstream developments...couple this with the hints of ridging still in AK and we open up the flood gates for much colder air masses and a stormy pattern. Conditions for cyclogenesis would finally become more favorable much farther south and east instead of north and west. Still just a question of when these changes occur though...the signal is very strong but the ball is slowly starting to roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 The Thursday system is trending in the guidance. The weekend one isn't. It's weakening... Since neither are relayed on board the "instinct" to count chickens in either case has been clucking, too. Either system could still become dominant in a flat flow high velocity canvas... Both could end up nothing. Just sayn' I agree that the extended looks better ... as far as extendes can. The HC is finally looking more seasonal, and with the R-wave repositioning going on... the relaxation of both is opening a potential era where meridian flow structures can dig unimpeded more readily. We see that feed-back right away in how we end up with that wondering west Atlantic weirdness out there - but though it is silly to argue any solution for D9/10... I do think that result on this Euro run is really more a reflection of changes rather than a real system. Though it wouldn't shock if over the next 2 to 3 days, we 'fill that in' so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 For the bundamentalists alone...that D12/13 Euro I bet would be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’ll take a sleet fest at this point. Tired of the rain. This looks like some fun early Saturday but if gets washed away...annoying again. This....Just walked outside to misery mist falling, I am about ready to move on to spring(probably more misery mist)....Sunday was amazing. On the other hand, we need a harsh winter soon or we will be dealing with EEE before we know it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now