ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: Didn't appear that the 06z GEFS was buying it either. They aren't that far off. GEFS are a little slower. But even at 138 hours, here's the OP GFS. Primary still dominant over ROC....then the GEFS at 144 are pretty similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They aren't that far off. GEFS are a little slower. But even at 138 hours, here's the OP GFS. Primary still dominant over ROC....then the GEFS at 144 are pretty similar I was looking at the secondary development, It just looked like the GEFS still developed the SLP offfshore further north, But no, Its not far off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: It just looked like the GEFS still developed the SLP further north, But no, Its not far off Gefs has been trending the secondary earlier for like 3 consecutive runs now. Not sure what the max south/early threshold is but another 100 miles or so and it’s full fledged coastal for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gefs has been trending the secondary earlier for like 3 consecutive runs now. Not sure what the max south/early threshold is but another 100 miles or so and it’s full fledged coastal for everyone. Seems to be slowing down some too... precipitation isn’t getting in here until during the day Saturday. Nice longer duration event too.... unlike most we’ve had recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 37° and CAA flurries are nbd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 37° and CAA flurries are nbd. *** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: I was looking at the secondary development, It just looked like the GEFS still developed the SLP offfshore further north, But no, Its not far off You should just go with this and call it a day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: *** -RA and 38° now. And btw, I’m not arguing it’s reporting correctly. I like the 2° argument as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Could be 2 warning events in 3 days, Fun times. Fun times, yes, in Lewiston ME. I can buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Fun times, yes, in Lewiston ME. I can buy that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 49 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Seems to be slowing down some too... precipitation isn’t getting in here until during the day Saturday. Nice longer duration event too.... unlike most we’ve had recently Yea. The slower the better the results are imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I think Wed is going to end up quite warm for most. Probably another beautiful day —50 in PSM? I can see that ... Thursday, well AN before the CF as well—40’s...Thursday looks like a NNE resorts, and away from the coast in ME type deal for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Eps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 49 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You should just go with this and call it a day Sign me up for 40" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Just saw that. Raul, Boston Seminole, was first to key on that energy. I see there are flakes flying in Emass this morning. Logan probably recording 40 degrees got a light dusting on grass surfaces here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: Yeah, the EPS and ECMWF has schooled other guidance imo with this system. It wasn't just a gfs issue either, all other guidance was very weak with the features and had destructive wave interference. It’s 3 days before the event. A little early to be talking if schooled. My 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, moneypitmike said: It’s 3 days before the event. A little early to be talking if schooled. My 2 cents. Well the other guidance has trended significantly toward the Euro. So if it ends up going back, they got duped too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Well the other guidance has trended significantly toward the Euro. So if it ends up going back, they got duped too. Agreed. It wouldn’t be the first time we’ve had a broad model failure this season. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 BTW, pretty cool to get snow this morning (even if just a few flakes) while the midlevels were like +4, lol. That -4 to -5C layer around 900-950mb plus the low level lift off the ocean with salt nuclei gave some flakes underneath the inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BTW, pretty cool to get snow this morning (even if just a few flakes) while the midlevels were like +4, lol. That -4 to -5C layer around 900-950mb plus the low level lift off the ocean with salt nuclei gave some flakes underneath the inversion. Eps 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I believe the models will continue to trend with a stronger negative tilt to the Thursday shortwave and a trend further south as the west coast to rocky mountain ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I believe the models will continue to trend with a stronger negative tilt to the Thursday shortwave and a trend further south as the west coast to rocky mountain ridging. SNE is cooked for Thursday. I’d be watching this weekend for any shot of snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: SNE is cooked for Thursday. I’d be watching this weekend for any shot of snow for you. Why are you talking like I have zero shot at snow? Models are favoring my area too. They are subject to change, but it isn't out of the realm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I believe the models will continue to trend with a stronger negative tilt to the Thursday shortwave and a trend further south as the west coast to rocky mountain ridging. Belief and reality are not one in the same. There is next to no secondary deveplopment from the main slp and the main slp tracks over wny. There is no cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Yeah James, you aren't getting snow from the Thursday system...maybe a few flakes at the very end is all I'd hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z GFS is almost a straight Miller B for weekend. Redeveloping low pretty early. Yeah...yup... that's my take, that this is probably reluctantly conceding that direction in all guidance ... stubbornly having to admit it and won't fully until it is 36 hours out LOL But I have other thoughts too... Like, stepping back ( oh god - here he goes... ) the flow is fast ( duh ) but, it's west to east and zonal in nature for the next five days. After which, that and then is where and when the flow starts to "buckle" ... That circumstance of change is very important for two principles in determinism ( which I'm not mansplaining here - you know this ...just sayn'): The first is, the Thursday wave that "should" bring a swipe of fast moving light/moderate snow and mix on the southern edge across CNE, won't even come over the denser sounding domain over western N/A until 12z initializations, tomorrow. It prooobly won't mean a whole helluva lot? But, it only takes subtle potency wrt that mechanical wave space where subtle quotients could mean for a better burst of wintry weather with that..or a south, or a north track...etc. The second is, that's an intrinsic pattern change. And it is one whose scaffolding is pretty heavily advertise to be heading into a PNA paradigm shift that supports more western ridging. Pattern changes as we know are not usually the best time spans for model verification scores ..to put it nicely. But, in this case, the HC and SE ridging/R-wave fiasco that's pretty much dictated our sadness over the last several weeks, is breaking down sort of in tandem with that weekend gigs arrival. We really need the SE not to dawdle in doing so...because, if that ends up being prematurely eroded and/or worse yet, red-herring eroded, all bets are off on how the forcing offsets that wave's interactivity with the surrounding medium east of ~ 100 W. So, there is uncertainty fruit free for picking in the tree of determinism for this week in my estimation. But to your original point... if none of that matters heading into the weekend, only where we are as of right now in the runs? Yeah,...that's not getting out of Miller B result alive. Not chance...too much BL forcing and cold in the lower troposphere, with a 120 kt v-max wind core tunneling S of LI ? f-off man... that's going to bomb.. You'd iron out details but that facet is happening sorry. Probably for Nick - ha There after, there is still now in the GEFs/oper. GFS and Euro cluster, a coherent appeal of HC deflation - being funny...but with heights more natively receding SE of Hawaii around the girdle of S-tropics, together with Phase 7-8-1-2 MJO ..that's still a constructive wave interference that may also lead a -AO response given time and doing so with less compression in the flow over all, allows for less "de"structive individual S/W mechanics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah James, you aren't getting snow from the Thursday system...maybe a few flakes at the very end is all I'd hope for. NAM gives me more than inch of snow for Thursday. The models are trending towards a bigger threat. You can't rule it out 72 hours in advance, this same thing happened on the 8th with that coastal storm, though it was ultra progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah James, you aren't getting snow from the Thursday system...maybe a few flakes at the very end is all I'd hope for. James.. I also agree. Thursday Snow is not happening for any SNE. This weekend is a different story. That seems to being still trending ( in the right direction as far as Wintry precip ), but..we still have until Thursday to iron that one out. I'd say our best shot for a true Snow event will be after this week. Next weeks temps and storm set up is highly favorable for something real good! Great enthusiasm James... But, I'd tell you to let Thursday go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: James.. I also agree. Thursday Snow is not happening for any SNE. This weekend is a different story. That seems to being still trending ( in the right direction as far as Wintry precip ), but..we still have until Thursday to iron that one out. I'd say our best shot for a true Snow event will be after this week. Next weeks temps and strom set up is highly favorable for something real good! Great enthusiasm James... But, I'd tell you to let Thursday go. Since when do we ignore a potential event 72 hours away? We always say to pay attention until within reasonable time frame. I would give it through the 00z cycle tonight, if the trends go the other way or stay the same as the 00z last night, then I will side with everyone else on no threat for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Since when do we ignore a potential event 72 hours away? We always say to pay attention until within reasonable time frame. I would give it through the 00z cycle tonight, if the trends go the other way or stay the same as the 00z last night, then I will side with everyone else on no threat for snow. Just my opinion James ;-). Trying to save you from your own agony of hope in this one. But, I commend your resolve man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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