Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: To put the overnight warmth into perspective, here are Boston's hourly record high temperatures (1945-present): https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=MA_ASOS&zstation=BOS&month=jan&var=max_tmpf&dpi=100&_fmt=png&_cb=1 This event, and it is an "event" in my mind ... has a furtive characteristic to it, that tops everything on the list. The 'SE ridge' that is typically if not more obscured at times, present during these warm episodes in the distant past, is much more than just that in present era. Heights over a vast, disturbingly large circumvallate of the SW Atlantic basin, are over 594 dam ... IN JANUARY... At least in my tenure on this planet.. I have never seen that before. What I believe is happening, which lends to this being something notable enough .. is that the R-wave patterning has happened to come into a superposition with the HC expansion, in a constructive wave interference. The two together are creating a sort of synergistic feed-back and we're seeing a 'rogue-ridge' signal in the atmosphere. Perhaps indirectly/transitively related to that ... in all guidance, we spend the next two days, post this pallid fropa this morning, with a polar high rolling over top (N!) through eastern Ontario, yet the 850 mb 0C isotherm struggles S of a BUF-BOS latitude? In January no less... As an aside, I've opined over in the climate forum upon multiple compositions that are too long for the attention span modern world social media ... how Americans have been living a kind of charmed existence during this entrance era of CC's pernicious effect. In effect, we are affectedly being protected from sensible awareness of it. Oh some of us do sense and observe changes, but those examples are far more subtle than they are gross enough displays, such as burning continents down-under. Which I'm sure the counter-arguing shimmeral "moral" base is currently composing a well-formed paper that it's only happened because of man's prevention of "normalcy" - which in partial truth, allow them to get away with it... We would be rarer to find summer heights over such a vast area of the SW Atlantic Basin persisting so long between 594 to 600 dm; typically getting a circumvallate of say 590 ( which seems like a minor difference to lay-folk but is an important physical sensitivity ) would roast the population mecca, presaging or in tandem, an 88 to 96 heat wave from the els of the eastern cordillera to the I-95 corridor. If this super-position event taking place now, happens May 10 through August 10? ( which I contend merely hasn't ... yet) we're talking 103 to 110 at Logan And don't think that can't happen ( not you per se - the 'royal yous'). There would probably be a historic heat wave that presses the physical ceiling and just parks the dailies at 107, with lows of 90 ...because despite all ..the sun is a constant but etc...etc.. cross that bridge. The low temperatures remaining elevated is where the ballast of GW is being noted, btw/is the point. We are doing a kind of 'perfect storm' R-wave timing over the tapestry of bloated HC, a constructive wave interference event. We are seeing it happen at a time of year that only instills a sense of frolic elation for 90% of society that steps out with a cup of coffee and goes, Ahh. While of course sending the remainder dystopian winter storm zealots like us to distraction ... Neither experience lends very well to "consequence" experience of GW, not in a species that is intrinsically blithe to the point of paralysis at reacting to any crisis that isn't directly appealing to the senses as hardship. I feel pretty highly confident, snark and resentment overtones aside... ( which I'm aware I come of that way about this particular subject matter - but that's for dark humor/entertainment and sarcasm...blah blah ), that this warming event happens in 1900, 1950, 1990, and 2020, but now? It is one that is getting a CC feed-back, and given enough sophistication in re-analysis, would prove that way. I know this is a historic Bermuda ridge for this time of year...and probably is in the top 10 percentile in summer, just existentialism, and probably a-priori. But, nuances in the flow and noise keep us from 70 ... okay... that's part of the furtive way in which we're being spared the burden too often. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 NNE still looks wintry for next few weeks. That's good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 That's a helluva thump even on the Euro. Lots of time to watch. EPS is a beautiful thing long term. Rauls 16th gaining legs for the interior too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Haven't seen clown outputs like this since the last week of Nov. Active cold pattern deets to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Its happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Looks like Euro completely lost the cold Miller B look Ginxy mentioned a few days back. Now we are dealing with a SWFE. Discouraging to see the Euro trending towards ramping up the primary and trying to take our front end thump to the woodshed. Almost going away from a true SWFE to a cutterish look. This threat is becoming eerily similar to the overall tone of the winter thus far. Slam a wound up primary way west, redevelop it way north and we are not on the shit side down in SNE. We have an eternity and I’m hoping we trend it back colder, however I’m not really seeing it unfold that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Haven't seen clown outputs like this since the last week of Nov. Active cold pattern deets to be determined. Yeah Worcester in a better spot than us for this upcoming event for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 What a meltdown lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Lets Go!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Looks like Euro completely lost the cold Miller B look Ginxy mentioned a few days back. Now we are dealing with a SWFE. Discouraging to see the Euro trending towards ramping up the primary and trying to take our front end thump to the woodshed. Almost going away from a true SWFE to a cutterish look. This threat is becoming eerily similar to the overall tone of the winter thus far. Slam a wound up primary way west, redevelop it way north and we are not on the shit side down in SNE. We have an eternity and I’m hoping we trend it back colder, however I’m not really seeing it unfold that way. There is a difference. Much colder higher pressure lies across Canada. Euro op is amped but at this time frame watch EPS probabilities 3 and 6 inch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Those probabilities are pretty classic swfe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I still harken back to 1/23-24 for a similar system as what euro has for this upcoming weekend. 1/26 showed up on the euro at 60 hours lead time and then the strongest snow period on most of our lifetimes. Interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: I still harken back to 1/23-24 for a similar system as what euro has for this upcoming weekend. 1/26 showed up on the euro at 60 hours lead time and then the strongest snow period on most of our lifetimes. Interesting stuff. These are referring to 2015 for those who didn't get the reference. 1/24/15 was more of a thread-the-needle coastal than a SWFE...but it had some ptype issues over eastern and southeast areas for sure. So in that sense it could be similar sensible wx. I still have some hope that 1/18 this year will trend colder given the strength of that high. We just need to tone down the primary a bit on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: I still harken back to 1/23-24 for a similar system as what euro has for this upcoming weekend. 1/26 showed up on the euro at 60 hours lead time and then the strongest snow period on most of our lifetimes. Interesting stuff. Analogs include 61 78 05 late January's . Interesting for sure. Storms and rumors of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: These are referring to 2015 for those who didn't get the reference. 1/24/15 was more of a thread-the-needle coastal than a SWFE...but it had some ptype issues over eastern and southeast areas for sure. So in that sense it could be similar sensible wx. I still have some hope that 1/18 this year will trend colder given the strength of that high. We just need to tone down the primary a bit on the euro. Also, we flipped colder about 10 days prior. But I recall needing to go to Pittsburgh on 1/22-23 and the small snow cover they had was a welcomed sight. MEX had 8s for early the following week and I couldn’t figure out those muthufukkas.....but alas...it came! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Analogs include 61 78 05 late January's . Interesting for sure. Storms and rumors of storms No until we see the white of the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Its happening I was actually beginning to entertain the notion that the EPO part of this may be less impressive or discernibly changing ( but will some of course...) compared to moving the PNA from -5 SD to +1 .. 6 pt change in a domain that is truly awesome in size-scale and dimension must simply by proxy of mass alone, conjure opinions for a broad systemic change in the circulation structure over at least this side of the Hemisphere. And it's probable that big of a change has some roots in the Indian Ocean/Asian input, too... considering we are seeing an MJO wave that is robustly modeled, in all agencies, to press through Ph 6 and lurch into Phase 7/8... probably as the curve unfurls in time, we'll see that wrap around toward 1 ( my hunch ) ... These are indicators that tropical forcing is syncing up with the mid latitudes in a constructive way. So, a better/robuster -EPO signal may yet also materialize - I'd bide time on that. But the PNA is definitely correlated with the MJO as it being modeled heading into week two. What is fascinating to me, is trying to figure out which leads which/chicken and egg. Because it almost looks like pure dice roll-timing thing ... They seem to be happening in tandem. Also, I'd be on the look-out for emerging -AO signals if that has not already begun. If the mid latitudes/MJO sync up...that increases cyclone genesis along mid latitude conveyors, and that enhances the Ferrel trade flow/easterly trajectories below the rim of the polar vortex.... which by physics weakens the vortex and blocking nodes tend to result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Sink or swim time for the euro. Getting inside 5 days too. Pretty much no other guidance has this s/w that strong. Will it fold like a cheap tent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, Hazey said: Sink or swim time for the euro. Getting inside 5 days too. Pretty much no other guidance has this s/w that strong. Will it fold like a cheap tent? I'd expect something a little less amped given how much of an outlier it is. It can still be "more correct" but you probably lose your big snow if it compromises even a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Its happening Seems like teleconnections are broadly shifting from terrible to mediocre. Have to strongly favor in and up until we get closer to the 20th and reassess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hazey said: Sink or swim time for the euro. Getting inside 5 days too. Pretty much no other guidance has this s/w that strong. Will it fold like a cheap tent? That's Raul's. Good upper air support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, Hazey said: Sink or swim time for the euro. Getting inside 5 days too. Pretty much no other guidance has this s/w that strong. Will it fold like a cheap tent? you may not get many replies as that image is clearly good for you ...and blase for New England... But yeah, I saw that...and still suggests that D4/5 is on the table. Seems there is reticence to accept and talk about that on the forum; not sure what the reasoning is there. Seems there is obsession with the one after..which yeah, bears some interesting complexion, but... the 00z Euro solution would probably at least give 1-3 or even 3-5" band in with crashing heights down our way. Ah hell... we need this 12z run to start helping out from other sources.. The Euro's proven its fallibility at other times enough this season not to hang hats on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: No until we see the white of the snow We harken back to Jan threads of yore. Some cant see the forest thru the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hazey said: Sink or swim time for the euro. Getting inside 5 days too. Pretty much no other guidance has this s/w that strong. Will it fold like a cheap tent? Fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: you may not get many replies as that image is clearly good for you ...and blase for New England... But yeah, I saw that...and still suggests that D4/5 is on the table. Seems there is reticence to accept and talk about that on the forum; not sure what the reasoning is there. Seems there is obsession with the one after..which yeah, bears some interesting complexion, but... the 00z Euro solution would probably at least give 1-3 or even 3-5" band in with crashing heights down our way. Ah hell... we need this 12z run to start helping out from other sources.. The Euro's proven it falibility at other times enough this season not to hang hats on it. I think Raul and I have been talking about this. Will mentioned it this morning. Interesting little batch of energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Wish the Pope was around in 13, 15, would have been interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I stand corrected, Hazey... you did get replies... All spurning and neg-head hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 To mention..the S/W in question for Thursday is relaying off the Pac on a flat amplitude trajectory, passing a 100 kt 500 mb jet max S of ORD just 30 hours later... That's not typically a set up that lends to model accuracy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I kinda want it to fold. Then I can put another feather in the “the euro sucks this year” cap. Used to be a solid stand alone guidance. Now it’s a model you blend. Kinda a step back in performance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Hazey said: I kinda want it to fold. Then I can put another feather in the “the euro sucks this year” cap. Used to be a solid stand alone guidance. Now it’s a model you blend. Kinda a step back in performance. Mm...yeah, I get it. But, I don't think the model has really earned a 'suck this year' rep, either. I think there is a willingness to shine that light on the model...because it handed an iffy performance on a snow storm, and that's like the movie "Rounders," when Matt Damon's character's narrative says, "Few people remember the big pots they've won... but everyone remembers the tough beats where they lost it all" Folks in this engagement/hobby of drug use ...they don't handle losses too well-adjusted, and will tend to remember those with more shimmering alacrity than the mundane monotony of the day to day Euro, which still performs at very good levels. Just my take on things... I need more glaring busts before I'm willing to take the Euro down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now