January 2020 Discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

Over

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Over

I don't think so...hopefully I'm right, but we will need the atlantic or else it maybe...

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Over

How is it over ? LoL

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Snow88 said:

How is it over ? LoL

January. The writing has been on the wall for sometime . I love snow as much as you , but looking at the pattern , I’m also realistic. I can see how Scooters snow could happen around the 7th. But before and after that , looks awful. And if it looks awful here, NYC would be worse. I’m not punting the month, but I’m setting uber low expectations so I’m not disappointed 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

January. The writing has been on the wall for sometime . I love snow as much as you , but looking at the pattern , I’m also realistic. I can see how Scooters snow could happen around the 7th. But before and after that , looks awful. And if it looks awful here, NYC would be worse. I’m not punting the month, but I’m setting uber low expectations so I’m not disappointed 

Yea, January won't be pretty, but the cold will be close enough at times to make it interesting.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

January. The writing has been on the wall for sometime . I love snow as much as you , but looking at the pattern , I’m also realistic. I can see how Scooters snow could happen around the 7th. But before and after that , looks awful. And if it looks awful here, NYC would be worse. I’m not punting the month, but I’m setting uber low expectations so I’m not disappointed 

Very low expectations. One saving grace is peak climo where a so-so look can produce. But anyone in SNE ‘buckling up for a wild ride’ is really boarding:

[dendrite]

To be fair I can’t ride tilt-a-whirl anymore. It’s too much for me. Maybe I could handle that though.

I really hate punting months when it hasn’t even began yet. Granted it looks meh for the first third. It may not be epic, but New England can find a lot of ways to snow in Jan. 

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

To be fair I can’t ride tilt-a-whirl anymore. It’s too much for me.

The carousel does me in at this point....I guess I should be happy with my dusting of sleet last night, might be the last trace of anything until at least February, hopefully....

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

This pattern is turning into last year again. It's comical

Yup, looks like a blowtorch Jan into early Feb. 

Raindance does point out the inverse December SOI compared to last year which should theoretically lead to a much colder February. 

But as we've seen the atmosphere and ENSO state aren't in sync so who knows. Think late Feb/March will continue the cold & snowy/blocky trend. 

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

To be fair I can’t ride tilt-a-whirl anymore. It’s too much for me. Maybe I could handle that though.

I really hate punting months when it hasn’t even began yet. Granted it looks meh for the first third. It may not be epic, but New England can find a lot of ways to snow in Jan. 

Where you are sure. You guys in far NNE are fine. You wont see grass until Morch . Sne looks bad, NYC even worse 

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

To be fair I can’t ride tilt-a-whirl anymore. It’s too much for me. Maybe I could handle that though.

I really hate punting months when it hasn’t even began yet. Granted it looks meh for the first third. It may not be epic, but New England can find a lot of ways to snow in Jan. 

It's a weird obsession here especially in Jan. Yesterday's snowstorm was a massive soueaster with zero snow anywhere. I dont know much but a couple of degrees AN in Jan is still winter. Those throwing shade at my buckle up statement well.....stay tuned

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Over

Modoki may become part of my personal Fraud Five if this winter ends up like last year. 

[Whineminster]

Are we cooked for snow this weekend? Potentially another icer.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

To be fair I can’t ride tilt-a-whirl anymore. It’s too much for me. Maybe I could handle that though.

I really hate punting months when it hasn’t even began yet. Granted it looks meh for the first third. It may not be epic, but New England can find a lot of ways to snow in Jan. 

Even Jan 2012 had several snow events. We'll get something unless we're super unlucky. 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

Are we cooked for snow this weekend? Potentially another icer.

Roasted like a 4th of July weenie.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

Are we cooked for snow this weekend? Potentially another icer.

This weekend is a big cutter. No real ice threat...maybe very briefly at the onset. 

There could be a bit of snow at the end though as models are trying to hang back some energy. 

[moneypitmike]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Even Jan 2012 had several snow events. We'll get something unless we're super unlucky. 

What's the over-under on snow events prior to Jan. 20?  I'm going with 3 (counting the one we just had).

 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Are we cooked for snow this weekend? Potentially another icer.

That starts as ice and then rains to Maines Even ski country . No cold high 

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even Jan 2012 had several snow events. We'll get something unless we're super unlucky. 

It really is incredible how we go through this every Jan. 

[mahk_webstah]

57 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's a weird obsession here especially in Jan. Yesterday's snowstorm was a massive soueaster with zero snow anywhere. I dont know much but a couple of degrees AN in Jan is still winter. Those throwing shade at my buckle up statement well.....stay tuned

Good point.  Subtle things like a bit of high pressure showing up can easily lead to good outcomes for many of us and this storm just ending is a perfect example.  Let’s see if we get some subtle adjust and good luck the next 10 days.  The 3-4 inches of sleet under 2 inches of snow is a solid snowpack 

[Baroclinic Zone]

28 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

What's the over-under on snow events prior to Jan. 20?  I'm going with 3 (counting the one we just had).

 

For all of New England?  Starting Jan 1, I say 3-4 for New England.

[CoastalWx]

It’s tough to say. On paper it’s dam ugly. But we’ve seen setups that were ugly, shift subtlety with day to day changes to something more favorable. Who knows. Prepare for boredom and hope for the best. All you can do. Hopefully the 7-8 works out. 

[CapturedNature]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

January. The writing has been on the wall for sometime . I love snow as much as you , but looking at the pattern , I’m also realistic. I can see how Scooters snow could happen around the 7th. But before and after that , looks awful. And if it looks awful here, NYC would be worse. I’m not punting the month, but I’m setting uber low expectations so I’m not disappointed 

It's over but it's not over?  I don't understand this logic of tossing anything 300+ hours out but yet we know the details of an entire month ahead?  I can tell you're in sales if you're trying to sell that logic.

In terms of snowfall, I'm at 22.7" for the season.  My 35 year normal to date is 14.8" so I'm already ahead 7.9".  I only need 8.9" for the entire month to stay normal.  I've received that in the vast majority of January's, including January 2012 so while it might not be a "normal" month (we still need to see), all is not lost for having a "normal" snow season.

[Typhoon Tip]

This social -media arena has a concentration of those plugging their joy circuitry/dependency into the drama they see on charts. Blah blah ... been opining this for a long time, but at times it is still down right patently like the 60-minutes expose on psychotropic addiction behavior.  Hm, I guess it's better than opiodes, but ... it doesn't lend at all to objective thinking/perception on matters. I'm with Brian ... you guys 86 a month based on what? 

Okay. To each his, her, or whatever variation of gender-reassignment's own I guess...be miserable if that's your bag man

You might not have to wait as long as you think... Just look at member P8 at 228 hours from 00z last night.  This would shut down the PHL-BOS corridor completely...

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

This pattern is turning into last year again. It's comical

The storm tracks during the fall of 19 were similar to the storm tracks for the fall of 18. Storms passing to the west and north.  Climate change is impacting the winters in NE. And many of the winter forecasts did not even factor in the record warmth across the northern hemisphere during much of 2019. And many used analog years that are 40-60 years in the past when the climate was different.

Eric Fisher wrote a great article on the past decade. It can be found on the WBZ website and on his twitter page.

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The storm tracks during the fall of 19 were similar to the storm tracks for the fall of 18. Storms passing to the west and north.  Climate change is impacting the winters in NE. And many of the winter forecasts did not even factor in the record warmth across the northern hemisphere during much of 2019. And many used analog years that are 40-60 years in the past when the climate was different.

Eric Fisher wrote a great article on the past decade. It can be found on the WBZ website and on his twitter page.

 

You really have no evidence to point the finger at climate change for the reason of this winter or that winter. It is way more complicated than that, but it’s human confirmation bias that naturally allows us to do that.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You really have no evidence to point the finger at climate change for the reason of this winter or that winter. It is way more complicated than that, but it’s human confirmation bias that naturally allows us to do that.

Winters as a whole.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Winters as a whole.

I don't even know what point you are trying to make

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

I don't even know what point you are trying to make

The point is climate change is impacting winters as a whole.  

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You really have no evidence to point the finger at climate change for the reason of this winter or that winter. It is way more complicated than that, but it’s human confirmation bias that naturally allows us to do that.

I understand what you are saying /mean ... I think..

But for the general reader: one has to be careful with the above line of reasoning. It's used/abused, to negate the impacts of climate change to liberally...almost as a rationalization and denial of truth, because most in the business of doing so have too much to gain or maintain, in not admitting that it is a problem - more over, that it is a problem that all science included, most definitely appears to be human attributed.

That said, there is another danger in the above line of reasoning; it also negates the necessity to use climate trend analysis in the setting of expectations.  If the climate is demonstrating a logorithmic change ( accelerating one...) in either a negative or positive direction, wrt to any metric, it is wise to consider that ensuing period of time in question might exhibit that same tendency in that metric.

Otherwise, there is no problem - the way I see it ... - it assuming events and systems in a case by case basis, independent of that expectation. People have trouble separating those two... but, it's really more like ... if a case ends up warm, and the climate curve is accelerating warmer, ...the probability was > 50% for that in the first place. 

The real problem here is that climate masks causality.  People use that against the climate signal, which is false.

Not you per se... but these are aspects pertinent to the present World, and one's that irk me.