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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

At this range, should anything pop for next weekend that is snow, I am thinking it will be a smallish event (2-4”, 3-6”) type deal.  Just to try to get Winter 2.0 to start

Really an amazing stretch since mid December as far as warm temps.  

That's at odds with current modeling but OK

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But current modeling suggests bigger than a 2-4” type deal for whoever is all snow. 

Surely.   I’m just opining that’s I think these will change.  Biases and such.  I guess I am not communicating this well.  
Anyway, hopefully we can revisit my post in a week or so and laugh.  

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6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Surely.   I’m just opining that’s I think these will change.  Biases and such.  I guess I am not communicating this well.  
Anyway, hopefully we can revisit my post in a week or so and laugh.  

Could be nothing, don’t disagree there. But seems like if it continues there should be widespread warning snows for the typically favored areas.  

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When I looked at the euro op run from 0z, I was struck at the parallel between that prog and 2015.  Initial event was indeed messy which scooter surmised screwed the next wave which was going to whiff...Hence his tirade and the rest is history.  The whiff brought 12+ for everyone and 20+ for many...lol.

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Mm.. Thursday is still on the table in my opinion.

As is, the 00z operational mean is a high latitude NJ model solution - which is true, whether it snows in one's backyard or not. This wave is flat, open and potent, and zipping along into and through region with reasonably well-established baroclinicy. There  was a coherent, albeit small, adjustment south in the total wave -space translation on this 00z cycle, across the board, which opens the door ( particularly in the GGEM ) for more in the way of column collapse/dynamic to rip a snow burst for several hours in the latter half of this fast mover.

In fact, the one 3 ..4 days later that's got folks attention, really is the same sort of scenario.  Two NJ modelers ... perhaps taking a slightly biased northerly route, but monitor -

Which by the way, shifting storm tracks N is part of the empirical observation spectrum seen around the N. Hemisphere noted over the last 20 years of CC ;)  but...we'll let that poke of the hornets nest run it's buzzing denial and rage -

Anyway, that doesn't mean Thursday or the one after can't adjust that much more S.  The Euro actually doesn't appear - to me - like it can actually get from it's 120 to 144 hour circumstances ( charts ) without at least some column collapse as well.  

D.E.M. looks good for an event either way. 

06z GFS was a distraction, but I'm less concerned for that pending continuity so we'll see... The 00z individual members of the GEFs had some bona fide 10 to 14" looking NJ lows, too. P006, 1, 4 ... 7, 9 all these were getting it done, and I'm pretty sure that is a tick more aggressive compared to what I saw in the 12z suite. 

So, still on the table... so needs some work, but not a loss yet.

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11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

When I looked at the euro op run from 0z, I was struck at the parallel between that prog and 2015.  Initial event was indeed messy which scooter surmised screwed the next wave which was going to whiff...Hence his tirade and the rest is history.  The whiff brought 12+ for everyone and 20+ for many...lol.

So we need weekend to go to shit so Scooter can melt to usher in winter...our very own SSW. Call it SME (Scooter Melting Event).

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15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So we need weekend to go to shit so Scooter can melt to usher in winter...our very own SSW. Call it SME (Scooter Melting Event).

No, what I think Jerry means, is the event before the big blizzard in late Jan 15, was a 1-4 inch wet snow, messy melting slop mess, which Scott thought/and it looked to be at the time,  was gonna inhibit the potential bigger system coming up for that Monday/Tuesday time frame.  
 

So maybe this weekend’s potential could be a sloppy messy precursor,  that gets the ball rolling so to speak, and leads to a bigger event a few days later...??    That’s the way I read and took Jerry’s post..??  But maybe I’m mistaken?

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