CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I didn’t see what Will said yesterday, but I think the point is to not lock in snow over a week out. As of now, it does look wintry for many, but that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Summer run in shorts earlier. Strong winds. Shorts all weekend sadly Jorts and cornhole? Sounds awful. Luckily it ends soon. We phase change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 At this range, should anything pop for next weekend that is snow, I am thinking it will be a smallish event (2-4”, 3-6”) type deal. Just to try to get Winter 2.0 to start Really an amazing stretch since mid December as far as warm temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 ORH is at +6.5F MTD going into this torch. We could be at +10 by Monday. Neat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: At this range, should anything pop for next weekend that is snow, I am thinking it will be a smallish event (2-4”, 3-6”) type deal. Just to try to get Winter 2.0 to start Really an amazing stretch since mid December as far as warm temps. That's at odds with current modeling but OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: That's at odds with current modeling but OK But we know how those go this far out. Could easily become a nothingburger but I am optimistic. Just my opinion based on current modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: But we know how those go this far out. Could easily become a nothingburger but I am optimistic. Just my opinion based on current modeling. But current modeling suggests bigger than a 2-4” type deal for whoever is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: But current modeling suggests bigger than a 2-4” type deal for whoever is all snow. Surely. I’m just opining that’s I think these will change. Biases and such. I guess I am not communicating this well. Anyway, hopefully we can revisit my post in a week or so and laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Surely. I’m just opining that’s I think these will change. Biases and such. I guess I am not communicating this well. Anyway, hopefully we can revisit my post in a week or so and laugh. Could be nothing, don’t disagree there. But seems like if it continues there should be widespread warning snows for the typically favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 The tenor of the season so far is for things to de-escalate as we approach, so I can see where Hubb Dave is coming from. But...I’ll be up north sledding next weekend, so that should almost guarantee a big hit here for everybody lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 When I looked at the euro op run from 0z, I was struck at the parallel between that prog and 2015. Initial event was indeed messy which scooter surmised screwed the next wave which was going to whiff...Hence his tirade and the rest is history. The whiff brought 12+ for everyone and 20+ for many...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Mm.. Thursday is still on the table in my opinion. As is, the 00z operational mean is a high latitude NJ model solution - which is true, whether it snows in one's backyard or not. This wave is flat, open and potent, and zipping along into and through region with reasonably well-established baroclinicy. There was a coherent, albeit small, adjustment south in the total wave -space translation on this 00z cycle, across the board, which opens the door ( particularly in the GGEM ) for more in the way of column collapse/dynamic to rip a snow burst for several hours in the latter half of this fast mover. In fact, the one 3 ..4 days later that's got folks attention, really is the same sort of scenario. Two NJ modelers ... perhaps taking a slightly biased northerly route, but monitor - Which by the way, shifting storm tracks N is part of the empirical observation spectrum seen around the N. Hemisphere noted over the last 20 years of CC but...we'll let that poke of the hornets nest run it's buzzing denial and rage - Anyway, that doesn't mean Thursday or the one after can't adjust that much more S. The Euro actually doesn't appear - to me - like it can actually get from it's 120 to 144 hour circumstances ( charts ) without at least some column collapse as well. D.E.M. looks good for an event either way. 06z GFS was a distraction, but I'm less concerned for that pending continuity so we'll see... The 00z individual members of the GEFs had some bona fide 10 to 14" looking NJ lows, too. P006, 1, 4 ... 7, 9 all these were getting it done, and I'm pretty sure that is a tick more aggressive compared to what I saw in the 12z suite. So, still on the table... so needs some work, but not a loss yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: When I looked at the euro op run from 0z, I was struck at the parallel between that prog and 2015. Initial event was indeed messy which scooter surmised screwed the next wave which was going to whiff...Hence his tirade and the rest is history. The whiff brought 12+ for everyone and 20+ for many...lol. So we need weekend to go to shit so Scooter can melt to usher in winter...our very own SSW. Call it SME (Scooter Melting Event). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So we need weekend to go to shit so Scooter can melt to usher in winter...our very own SSW. Call it SME (Scooter Melting Event). No, what I think Jerry means, is the event before the big blizzard in late Jan 15, was a 1-4 inch wet snow, messy melting slop mess, which Scott thought/and it looked to be at the time, was gonna inhibit the potential bigger system coming up for that Monday/Tuesday time frame. So maybe this weekend’s potential could be a sloppy messy precursor, that gets the ball rolling so to speak, and leads to a bigger event a few days later...?? That’s the way I read and took Jerry’s post..?? But maybe I’m mistaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 LOL SME. Tirade is a little tough. Maybe frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just need a favorable NAO Nogueira Anger Oscillation 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Oh we pray 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Oh we pray Extreme violence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Extreme violence NAO was off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 That was all pleasure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Just need a favorable NAO Nogueira Anger Oscillation You're doing an admirable job picking up the slack in the humor dept. in Zeus' absence. We salute you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 My dad who's old says winter is over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Extreme violence Make the MIT snow pile great again! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 17 minutes ago, Hoth said: Make the MIT snow pile great again! I would have loved to have seen... I heard/read about it, but I would have been playing on that like a 10 year old if I was there... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: For the most part it ends after Feb 25. Spring arrives early to stay I don't think we see an early spring. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think we see an early spring. We’ve been in lock step. Here is where we leave each other 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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