40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: In all seriousness the 1/20 timeframe appears to be a pretty good call if anyone can’t figure out the long range clown comments I make are to stir up the ACATT crew when things are zzzz good to see and active pattern with some cold close by beginning in a week as always w our climo , we roll the dice and see what shakes out I'm rebounding nicely from my second seasonal bust last year, but I do wish that I had went with a higher temp departure for January....I need some frigid air during the second half of the month. Extreme monthly temp departures are always a crap shoot, though...I feel its more important to just get the positive vs minus correct, as well as the narrative of the overall seasonal progression. I mean....we weenie tag people for posting clown maps depicting extreme anomalies at day 13, nevermind week 13. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 54 minutes ago, Dan said: Well this should be fun...Heading to Plattsburg on Saturday to visit my grandmother. She hasn't been feeling well and is 102, so can't really switch it. Certainly should have some great pictures Sunday morning. that is my neck of the woods enjoy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I gotta move up here. Having breakfast on our way out. Bumper stickers left and right extolling snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: I gotta move up here. Having breakfast on our way out. Bumper stickers left and right extolling snow. Biggest downside to BTV from a snow perspective is that it is awful at snow retention- if that matters to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, klw said: Biggest downside to BTV from a snow perspective is that it is awful at snow retention- if that matters to you. Yeah the valley there is shockingly bad considering the latitude and the average annual snowfall....it is still going to be a lot better than where he is now, but I am always surprised at how little there is when I drive up there. I often drove from ORH up through N ORH county and SW NH on rt 12 to get to 91 and then 89....I'd leave with full snow cover and not see any low snow cover/bare ground until I reached the Champlain valley west of Richmond or so. Still...good spot for frequent refreshers and good cold during arctic shots. Reminds me a bit snowier/colder Ithaca, NY climate....lots of smaller snowfalls and great arctic cold shots, but awful snowfall retention given the other two factors. So easily torched on southerly and southwest winds. BTV prob gets more bigger storms than Ithaca too....Ithaca drove me insane after a while....getting a double digit snow event was like pulling teeth. At first, I loved the frequent 1-3" snowfalls but then started loathing them as it kept reminding me of the penny and nickle climate I was in....I couldn't even call it nickle and dime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 heh...if today's any indicator, warm wants might consider this warm up to be stunted into a more vertical sounding orientation and not fully realizing the dry adiabats. Maybe... we'll see. There may be a kind of diffused warm frontal boundary in this and getting S of that tomorrow may open things up a bit, but these clouds jammed in seemingly with sun up and despite the already +4 to +6 at 850 mb, we're 44 and struggling to rise in annoying knuckles-cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Man, that GGEM solution won't give up on the GOM bomb idea... Really stem wounds that into NS' season defining event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: heh...if today's any indicator, warm wants might consider this warm up to be stunted into a more vertical sounding orientation and not fully realizing the dry adiabats. Maybe... we'll see. There may be a kind of diffused warm frontal boundary in this and getting S of that tomorrow may open things up a bit, but these clouds jammed in seemingly with sun up and despite the already +4 to +6 at 850 mb, we're 44 and struggling to rise in annoying knuckles-cold Heh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Ho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Let's Go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 The 1/15-16 event still mostly looks like dung on pretty much all guidance....a cutter really. Kind of hard to avoid that actually in this pattern....it could end up flatter as we were musing earlier but it's an uphill battle with the troughing out west and still pretty high heights out east. But the cold front behind that system sets the table for 1/18...that's really been the one to watch I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Euro caving for next week. Very wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The 1/15-16 event still mostly looks like dung on pretty much all guidance....a cutter really. Kind of hard to avoid that actually in this pattern....it could end up flatter as we were musing earlier but it's an uphill battle with the troughing out west and still pretty high heights out east. But the cold front behind that system sets the table for 1/18...that's really been the one to watch I think. Yes 18th 19th was we said this morning would be the modeled preferred time frame. Nice storm on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Next weekend, winter returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yes 18th 19th was we said this morning would be the modeled preferred time frame. Nice storm on the Euro probably CNE/NNE might do OK on the 15/16th.. regionwide yeah probably the weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Next weekend, winter returns. but that's the good news, what is the bad news in all of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: probably CNE/NNE might do OK on the 15/16th.. regionwide yeah probably the weekend system. Not on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Not on the Euro sure, i don't only look at the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 but EURO does look good for that weekend storm, regionwide warning event, too bad is still 180hr+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: but EURO does look good for that weekend storm, regionwide warning event, too bad is still 180hr+ You could say that at 96hr+, too, the way things have gone so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: sure, i don't only look at the euro. Sure but that's what I was posting about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I’m not afraid to take my chances with this pattern at my location. Should be a fun couple of weeks tracking despite any let downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I’m not afraid to take my chances with this pattern at my location. Should be a fun couple of weeks tracking despite any let downs. You can have the same h5 pattern as 2015 and get different sensible weather results. Not only should we not be afraid...we should be fist pumping and high five’ing each other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 EPS looks very similar to OP . Nice cold Miller B with a great amount of QPF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS looks very similar to OP . Nice cold Miller B with a great amount of QPF What date is this you are referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: What date is this you are referring to? 18/19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Will, how does the 12 EPS look today? not much change? Took a quick look and it looks pretty good from about 18th on till the end of the run but I suck at interpreting the ridges and epo,ao,nao,cao, gomo, ccco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Pretty big/good signal for a d8 eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pretty big/good signal for a d8 eps. Yeah but Day 8 and all. I’m optimistic just cautious. Nice to see some run to run consistency on a storm threat. New regime incoming for a few weeks hopefully. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What date is this you are referring to? 18th and the 22nd looks good and then way out there again on the 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now