Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Seems like the h5 look favors miller b scenarios, correct? Yeah northern stream dominant pattern for sure....it's really meridional though, so there could def be a storm that forms further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We are already seeing the Debbie's of previous years appear. All we can say is the pattern looks good right now. Comparisons to last year do have some validity, but I think that the fact that we have a QBO phase change to negative and do not have a SSW providing deconstructive interference is a game changer. I could see this upcoming PNA/EPO tandem pass the baton on to the NAO and keep things going for an extended period of fun through Feb and into March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Comparisons to last year do have some validity, but I think that the fact that we have a QBO phase change to negative and do not have a SSW providing deconstructive interference is a game changer. I could see this upcoming PNA/EPO tandem pass the baton on to the NAO and keep things going for an extended period of fun through Feb and into March. EPO dump starts the ball rolling Really looks nothing like last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Comparing 00z GEFS and EPS, GEFS would argue split flow with a massive baked AK ridge and a bit of a STJ at the end of the run. EPS is more -EPO/+PNA look. Sort of straddles the domains. Actually subtle signs of SW US troughing on EPS at 00z. Certainly means active IMO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPO dump starts the ball rolling Really looks nothing like last year. No, I just mean with respect to the polar domain over the past few weeks. I'm not saying that last year is an analog moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Last year had big GOA ridging into the EPO region and then it folded wya back west into the west coast for a deeply -PNA....it's why most of the country was pretty cold though....the staunchly negative EPO....we got a little unlucky in SNE missing really close on several SWFEs, but overall it wasn't a bad pattern. But yeah, this modeled pattern has the ridging significantly east of last year which should push the heart of the cold east and help us out in the snow department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GEFS is caving to the EPS which is good to see....if you recall from some of the posts yesterday, the GEFS were further west with the mean ridge out in the PAC domain. The GEFS had previosuly been really hitting the GOA ridging harder almost out toward the Aleutians....now they are more in line with the EPS: That may be true in the spatial sense of it/orientation but ... the ESRL numerology/bar graphs argued this was beginning yesterday, too - just sayn'. The former observation type - if that's how that was determined of the GEFs, yesterday ... - may have yet hid that onset. But I posted about the ESRL making some nods, then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: That may be true in the spatial sense of it/orientation but ... the ESRL numerology/bar graphs argued this was beginning yesterday, too - just sayn' Yeah they had already started trending yesterday, but they were still notably west of the EPS with the mean ridge....last night, they sort of made the full leap and they are pretty close now. I'd expect that to show up later today when the ESRL site updates for Jan 10 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I'm right on the fence here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Last year had big GOA ridging into the EPO region and then it folded wya back west into the west coast for a deeply -PNA....it's why most of the country was pretty cold though....the staunchly negative EPO....we got a little unlucky in SNE missing really close on several SWFEs, but overall it wasn't a bad pattern. But yeah, this modeled pattern has the ridging significantly east of last year which should push the heart of the cold east and help us out in the snow department. Perfectly stated. The pattern modeled is better than last season, and even last year wasn't as bad as the seasonal snowfall spreadsheet implies. Early December 2018 we all whiffed...early December 2019 MOST of us hit....that is the difference in seasonal snowfall to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I'd have thought that 2-3,000' falling thru mid 20s would freeze the raindrops solid, but those in the know say ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 If the GFS and Euro are right ... Sunday is not the warmer day there. That's a contaminated/dirty misty warm sector with light rains and failed convection on radar, with abhorrently elevated DPs ( probably 57 -ish) for this time of year. The products that are supposed to hone in on those metrics may or may not show that, but experience alone...I've seen that look before and the mild day would be Saturday ...when less contaminated warm sector flow is well mixed and b-layers are about as tall as they can get at this time of year. If we get > 75% RH at cloud heights and mist, and 68 F anywhere around here on Sunday, we've definitely CC thresheld and you ain't getting winter ever again Hyperbolic kidding of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, tamarack said: I'd have thought that 2-3,000' falling thru mid 20s would freeze the raindrops solid, but those in the know say ZR. Freezing level.is 900 to 957 on that sounding so 1000 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Freezing level.is 900 to 957 on that sounding so 1000 feet? Yeah, That's an ice sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Euro looks ( to me ..) as though it's battling it's own bias tendency for > 5 D modeling behavior on this 00z run last night ( operational )... That wave it passes N of the OV next week, still has a chance to take a slightly more southerly route, ...like the 00z GFS ironically... which with it's bias, would seem to fit the Euro's depiction better. Anyway, the Euro may be digging heights too prodigiously in the broader scope/'gestalt' of the flow out west, which concomitantly rises the same large spacial circumvallate in more tendency rather than actual observation, back east. Ha... It's kind of like creating an arena in the east for "least excuse imaginable" more so than executing it. You can just tell it has a bad attitude about NJ model lows.. Seriously, if it alleviates the flow just subtly enough out west, than the ridge in the E doesn't get that kick-back and force the S/W on that more N route "as much"... It's critical, because there are a few members and recent runs, that had more of NJ model plausibility with that thing. The 00z GFS has flashing over to S/S+ for four hours worth mid day next Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Wiz needs to start a thread for widespread severe thunderstorms on Sunday morning... Although it looks like Tammarac's thread will suffice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Euro looks ( to me ..) as though it's battling it's on bias tendency for > 5 D modeling behavior on this 00z run last night ( operational )... That wave it passes N of the OV next week, still has a chance to take a slightly more southerly route, ...like the 00z GFS ironically... which with it's bias, would seem to fit the Euro's depiction better. Anyway, the Euro may be digging heights too prodigiously in the broader scope/'gestalt' of the flow out west, which concomitantly rises the same large spacial circumvallate in more tendency rather than actual observation, back east. Ha... It's kind of like creating an arena in the east for "least excuse imaginable" more so the executing it. You can just tell it has a bad attitude about NJ model lows.. Seriously, if it alleviates the flow just subtly enough out west, than the ridge in the E doesn't get that kick-back and force the S/W on that more N route "as much"... It's critical, because there are a few members and recent runs, that had more of NJ model plausibility with that thing. The 00z GFS has flashing over to S/S+ for four hours worth mid day next Thursday. The EPS was definitely more the redeveloper route....of course either scenario could happen at this time range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Actually...I think you were talking about next Thursday Tip...and not next weekend. Yeah the EPS is still cutting next Thursday....but we'll see if that trends flatter like most of these have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 Is this part of the trend you were talking about, Orh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Actually...I think you were talking about next Thursday Tip...and not next weekend. Yeah the EPS is still cutting next Thursday....but we'll see if that trends flatter like most of these have. Yeah I was ...but, it could be true in both case, right - It's still beyond D 5 ... I'm/we're talking low probability for excitement here. Hopefully folks know this is just conjecture over what needs to sort of modulate to get to that excitement, more so than predictive determinism. That needs to be parsed out because given enough open philosophical discussion, people begin to conflate the philosophy with actual forecasts, I've sensed/noticed.. It tends to then send folks reeling in a kind of 'extra special sense of personal betrayal' when "things don't work out" ...because ....maaaaybe they shouldn't have 'depended' on said conjecture to begin with quite as prophetically as they did. Even if they don't know they are too...interesting... Anyway, also -EPO ( which that much I am more convinced and prepared to forecast is likely at > 50% hopes and dreams at this point ) onsets sometimes do favor the initial hemispheric fist punching S ... WEST of ORD. That tends to torque the flow ephemerally S/faux warm along the Eastern seaboard. It's probably the systemic sort of roots of why and where the adage, "first it gets warm, then it gets cold, BOOM" comes from. The cold lays down continental west and from then onward .. as it presses E with gradual lengthening of R-wave, the ambient baroclinic zone spawns storms the run up along it ...each successive one gradually shifts E ...sometimes this whole transition takes place quickly...sometimes over longer periods. That makes using climo stupid and offers the migraines. The thing about this...as the shifting b-c zone and governing favorable cyclogen mechanics move along, they have better productive zones for storm genesis, typically g-Lakes and Eastern/west Atlantic, because those regions have the other environmental factors favoring that are broader than just atmospheric. Speaking of gestalt. Like not having to contend with a mountain wall being in the way of cyclonic motion in the E... and add reason here: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Tippy loves NJ modeled lows and Hadley cells 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah I was ...but, it could be true in both case, right - It's still beyond D 5 ... I'm/we're talking low probability for excitement here. Hopefully folks know this is just conjecture over what needs to sort of modulate to get to that excitement, more so than predictive determinism. That needs to be parsed out because given enough open philosophical discussion, people begin to conflate the philosophy with actual forecasts, I've sensed/noticed.. It tends to then send folks reeling in a kind of 'extra special sense of personal betrayal' when "things don't work out" ...because ....maaaaybe they shouldn't have 'depended' on said conjecture to begin with quite as prophetically as they did. Even if they don't know they are too...interesting... Anyway, also -EPO ( which that much I am more convinced and prepared to forecast is likely at > 50% hopes and dreams at this point ) onsets sometimes do favor the initial hemispheric fist punching S ... WEST of ORD. That tends to torque the flow faux warmly S along the Eastern seaboard. It's probably the systemic sort of roots of why and where the adage, "first it gets warm, then it gets cold, BOOM" comes from. The cold lays down continental west and from then onward .. as it presses E with gradual lengthening of R-wave, the ambient baroclinic zone spawns storms the run up along it ...each successive one gradually shifts E ...sometimes this whole transition takes place quickly...sometimes over longer periods, adding to the migraines. The thing about this...as the shifting b-c zone and governing favorable cyclogen mechanics move along, they have better productive zones for storm genesis, typically g-Lakes and Eastern/west Atlantic, because those reason have the other environmental factors favoring that are broader than just atmospheric. Speaking of gestalt. Like not having to contend with a mountain wall being in the way of cyclonic motion in the E... and add reason here: Absolutely....and you can see it on the hemispheric loop where that initial dump of cold next week is due to the initial EPO ridge punching through AK while we still have a bit of west coast troughing folding underneath it. So I definitel think there could be still a few mild days mixed in next week until we get to next weekend or so when the ridging starts moving more over the WC, I'm sure we'll get plenty of posts calling bust-o-rama too during that timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 12z ICON is a soaker for almost all of NNE, except far N. Maine. Let’s hope that’s a trash solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Well this should be fun...Heading to Plattsburg on Saturday to visit my grandmother. She hasn't been feeling well and is 102, so can't really switch it. Certainly should have some great pictures Sunday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 55 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If the GFS and Euro are right ... Sunday is not the warmer day there. That's a contaminated/dirty misty warm sector with light rains and failed convection on radar, with abhorrently elevated DPs ( probably 57 -ish) for this time of year. The products that are supposed to hone in on those metrics may or may not show that, but experience alone...I've seen that look before and the mild day would be Saturday ...when less contaminated warm sector flow is well mixed and b-layers are about as tall as they can get at this time of year. If we get > 75% RH at cloud heights and mist, and 68 F anywhere around here on Sunday, we've definitely CC thresheld and you ain't getting winter ever again Hyperbolic kidding of course Cue the dark yellow Venus surface flyover with continuous lightning and Patrick Stewart voiceover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Absolutely....and you can see it on the hemispheric loop where that initial dump of cold next week is due to the initial EPO ridge punching through AK while we still have a bit of west coast troughing folding underneath it. So I definitel think there could be still a few mild days mixed in next week until we get to next weekend or so when the ridging starts moving more over the WC, I'm sure we'll get plenty of posts calling bust-o-rama too during that timeframe. OR better yet .... we'll get some lead time frame event that's just not really associated with these large scale changes but just part of the on-going noise of atmospheric parlance...and folks will be like, 'nice ...didn't have to wait that long for the -EPO' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Already 42° in downtown Greenfield. Three day torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 32 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: 12z ICON is a soaker for almost all of NNE, except far N. Maine. Let’s hope that’s a trash solution. That model has been leading that charge all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 In all seriousness the 1/20 timeframe appears to be a pretty good call if anyone can’t figure out the long range clown comments I make are to stir up the ACATT crew when things are zzzz good to see and active pattern with some cold close by beginning in a week as always w our climo , we roll the dice and see what shakes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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