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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think it’s overdone too, but other models still have the wedge cutting into the CAD zone in NH. Hopefully it gets overwhelmed by the WAA. I don’t need 30s and +RA while it’s speedos and coronas by the Mass border. 

Yea. I think this is one of those cases where the tuck really underperforms vs climo. We warm up to near 60 before the wedge makes its strongest push Sunday am. If we had cold at onset of developing wedge, I’d be a much bigger believer on being on the wrong side of the gradient for the duration. I’m thinking the 32F isotherm ends up from Portland to Lake Winne, and has staying power there. Maybe we hit 40ish Sunday morning but warm back up to mid 50’s as surface hp booted East and before fropa. 

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10 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Holy shite! Canada is cold on that depiction!

The seasonal trend of lows tracking to our W and flooding warm layers will eventually get pushed a bit more underneath us while also tapping into colder air quicker/easier..aka, good times ahead even if the rna remains or fluctuates. 

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8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The seasonal trend of lows tracking to our W and flooding warm layers will eventually get pushed a bit more underneath us while also tapping into colder air quicker/easier..aka, good times ahead even if the rna remains or fluctuates. 

No way SLP’s can just plow through that kind of cold.

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7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

lol ok gl with that BUT...that is not what I said anyway.

No, no.. that is my centre’s call, lol. Just saying It’s far better than what have been dealing with and like some others have alluded, yourself included, that look will lend itself to overrunning/swfe and low pressure redevelopment in a more favorable position than BVT, lol.. If I’m reading you right

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10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

This weekend is the high water mark for the warmth.  Many sne locations will be +10-15 for the first half of January.  We’ll see how much we can lop off of that in the second half...particularly post 1/20.  Kudos to Kevin.

While I did say no snow post Jan 20 to go along with that  , we had a little. It was minimal and limited , so that part was not correct, but also had some sense of recognition as most places in true SNE saw less than 4” of actual snow . Just an awful period 

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

While I did say no snow post Jan 20 to go along with that  , we had a little. It was minimal and limited , so that part was not correct, but also had some sense of recognition as most places in true SNE saw less than 4” of actual snow . Just an awful period 

Your talking about the next 11 days from the puzzling perspective of looking back ...ya

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're gonna wedge on Sunday I bet....might not be frozen, and could be a miserable 37F rain, but I bet at least pike-north drains. The topography will want to force it...you'll get the little mesolow protrusion into the Gulf of Maine off Cape Ann or something that will drive everything SW.

RFTCRW  (Ray for the colder rain win).

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23 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Your talking about the next 11 days from the puzzling perspective of looking back ...ya

Yeah there's a couple chances for more snow...admittedly, the closer we get to 1/20, the better...no doubt about later January looking better...but 1/17-18 is looking like a favorable period for something.

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1 hour ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

No, no.. that is my centre’s call, lol. Just saying It’s far better than what have been dealing with and like some others have alluded, yourself included, that look will lend itself to overrunning/swfe and low pressure redevelopment in a more favorable position than BVT, lol.. If I’m reading you right

Yes. Good times ahead.

But, still doesn’t mean cutters or pos kitchen sink systems won’t occur. Just less of them imo.

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The 1/17-18 setup looks semi-favorable because we get some transient ATL ridging into Greenland and transient 50/50 low which helps out a bit...it could still obviously fail. The PAC is still reshuffling at that time but the WPO/EPO block is folding over which eventually realigns into a more of a PNA/EPO ridge combo.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 1/17-18 setup looks semi-favorable because we get some transient ATL ridging into Greenland and transient 50/50 low which helps out a bit...it could still obviously fail. The PAC is still reshuffling at that time but the WPO/EPO block is folding over which eventually realigns into a more of a PNA/EPO ridge combo.

The AAO also stays negative but I am not sure the effect that has on the pattern. It is starting to move to neutral /positive tho mid to late January . The AAO has been negative since early October. I wonder what a neutral to positive AAO would do to east coast storm systems leading into the future

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3 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

The AAO also stays negative but I am not sure the effect that has on the pattern. It is starting to move to neutral /positive tho mid to late January . The AAO has been negative since early October. I wonder what a neutral to positive AAO would do to east coast storm systems leading into the future

The AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) is southern hemisphere....that's their version of the AO. Did you mean AO?

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) is southern hemisphere....that's their version of the AO. Did you mean AO?

You answered it. Thank you. I was talking about AAO. Didn’t realize that was only for Southern Hemisphere. Thank you for clearing that up. I do know the AO is indeed trending in our direction, after being very positive 

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