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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's disturbing to see the GFS most violent with the backdoor. 

We're gonna wedge on Sunday I bet....might not be frozen, and could be a miserable 37F rain, but I bet at least pike-north drains. The topography will want to force it...you'll get the little mesolow protrusion into the Gulf of Maine off Cape Ann or something that will drive everything SW.

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27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're gonna wedge on Sunday I bet....might not be frozen, and could be a miserable 37F rain, but I bet at least pike-north drains. The topography will want to force it...you'll get the little mesolow protrusion into the Gulf of Maine off Cape Ann or something that will drive everything SW.

I was looking at the windfields and other metrics and it looked like a little meso low goes off Cape Ann early Sunday am and pulls those lower dews South west. 

How far S do you imagine that 32 isotherm could go Given the set up? That’s a good position for a Big Cold HIGH.

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Sell the big wedge on the GFS. GFS did something similar last “tuck event” (Jan 4/5), while mesos never bought in. Similar story to last big ice event that struggled hugely to get 32F isotherm south of ORH. And this setup is a lot warmer still...Fade climo with ++AO, much less southward movement of cold; eastward trajectory predominates. 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

wtf :axe:

 

The 'wtf' for me isn't the circumstance... it's that we expect any scenario where that bulb of dense air just sits there like that in January of all times while 62 F laze faire flag wavers taunt by and by ... 

Some times that happens ... said never. 

I wonder if so though. Like, has it ever been 17 F in PWM and 61 in Lowell... Could be a first ? interesting

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS more amped this run.

Probably makes more sense, one way or the other, to either back off on the boob of cold dangling idea, with that 43 F gradient across 5 miles (  :wacko:  ) -vs just having less cold there .. if being more amped gets that done.   

There's probably a reason why history doesn't have that set up:  either it's that rare, or...  it can't do that.   

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41 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Sell the big wedge on the GFS. GFS did something similar last “tuck event” (Jan 4/5), while mesos never bought in. Similar story to last big ice event that struggled hugely to get 32F isotherm south of ORH. And this setup is a lot warmer still...Fade climo with ++AO, much less southward movement of cold; eastward trajectory predominates. 

I think it’s overdone too, but other models still have the wedge cutting into the CAD zone in NH. Hopefully it gets overwhelmed by the WAA. I don’t need 30s and +RA while it’s speedos and coronas by the Mass border. 

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think it’s overdone too, but other models still have the wedge cutting into the CAD zone in NH. Hopefully it gets overwhelmed by the WAA. I don’t need 30s and +RA while it’s speedos and coronas by the Mass border. 

Yeah I was thinking that too ... it might get a cold load into that tuck region but does it have to be 4 degrees above absolute zero ... christ. Might make the optics of that more believable if it wasn't gradating the temperatures so extreme across that interface like that... I dunno - but we've seen plenty of BDs in your hood is similar set up - I think the extremeness in the GFS is tempting me to 86 the whole idea but that would be short-sighted on my part. 

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think it’s overdone too, but other models still have the wedge cutting into the CAD zone in NH. Hopefully it gets overwhelmed by the WAA. I don’t need 30s and +RA while it’s speedos and coronas by the Mass border. 

Chickens in speedos? You weirdo

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