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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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10 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Ryan was saying last night most of the rain holds off till Sunday. Just chance of a shower Fri/Sat

Will be very warm but cloudy windy. Doubt we see much sun. I say 53 for a high. Sunday rain 55 . Think that's a good day to watch the Pats,  wait...

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25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No hyperbole, windows open, grilling, kids playing, and probably some plant bulbs pushing up in spots. I'm down. These recent shitty weekends with the kids has me losing my mind. Maybe a little Zach Brown band playing with an IPA in hand. 

I like pack but I would be legitimately jealous if missing 60+ with no rain.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol. No they’re not . They’ll be inside on phones and tablets 

Oh they'll be out. And so will I. 6z euro is a furnace Sunday into srn ME and NH. You ACATT peeps need to embrace this. It's going to change after next week, but for God's sake enjoy it for once. 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol. No they’re not . They’ll be inside on phones and tablets 

I have an 8 and 6 year old that find any reason to go outside, in pretty much any weather...they are definitely in the minority. They will go on "play dates" which end up sitting inside and watching tv or playing on some sort of electronic device. It is sad, I remember never wanting to be inside while growing up, I still don't....

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh they'll be out. And so will I. 6z euro is a furnace Sunday into srn ME and NH. You ACATT peeps need to embrace this. It's going to change after next week, but for God's sake enjoy it for once. 

On the pavement playing hopscotch? You won’t be on grass . It’ll be windy and cloudy with showers at times. I could see you shooting hoops with the kids in driveway for a bit 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

On the pavement playing hopscotch? You won’t be on grass . It’ll be windy and cloudy with showers at times. I could see you shooting hoops with the kids in driveway for a bit 

I was in the yard the last few days, yesterday in the snow. I'm going to teach Bryce how to steal signs in baseball like the frauds Red Sox. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh they'll be out. And so will I. 6z euro is a furnace Sunday into srn ME and NH. You ACATT peeps need to embrace this. It's going to change after next week, but for God's sake enjoy it for once. 

Hopefully dry cuz embracing warm and wet has very little redeeming values 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Hopefully dry cuz embracing warm and wet has very little redeeming values 

Wet is not good, but I don't see that Saturday. Even Sunday may not be too wet. I love snow, but no sense in downplaying the record warmth coming. These recent weekends have been awful wx wise. 

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Not sure who's said what over the last page or so ... so all credit where it is due, but the 00z GFS operational run ( and few priors that I can recall ) have been more aggressive with -EPO than it's ensemble means, but now the mean "might" be catching on just looking at the individual GEF members.   

As rumor has it the EPS has been showing changes in the Pacific in the extended for a few days now.. . The 00z Euro is hitting at a middling robust blocking ridge over Alaska. 

Given that these more sophisticated operational versions of disparate model types are nodding over that index switching modes, these are not altogether bad operational indicators for cold.  

I'm interested in ESRL's EPO progs from 00z because just eye-balling the GEF members individually, it does appear to be more of them situated blocking nodes and or ridge axis at higher latitudes of N-NE Pacific arc.  The take away there/mean is that they actually have it, not so much any given particulars that are unlikely to be correct.  We'll cross the orientation bridge when the time comes.  But, from D4.5 right out to the end of the D13 ..that entire period is now rather robustly -EPO in the operational 00z, and 06z GFS, so those rumors of the EPS Pacific are not 'entirely' alone.   

In the dailies, the GFS has been signaling a whopper cold whack out there around ( now ) 204 or so hours.. but total smear time is probably a 3.5 day stint at < 520 dm thickness.. with some nadir temps that are dropping steam plumes. Yet the robuster ridge(ings) over the Alaskan sector are still out there in the la-la range of that model. I like it when 564 dm centers over Fairbanks!  There's likely to be a few renditions of mass loading into the Canadian shield, with on and off disturbance orientations/existence but, the dearth of bona fide winter patterning is apparently on a shortened lease here.

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure who's said what over the last page or so ... so all credit where it is due, but the 00z GFS operational run ( and few priors that I can recall ) have been more aggressive with -EPO than it's ensemble means, but now the mean "might" be catching on just looking at the individual GEF members.   

As rumor has it the EPS has been showing changes in the Pacific in the extended for a few days now.. . The 00z Euro is hitting at a middling robust blocking ridge over Alaska. 

Given that these more sophisticated operational versions of disparate model types are nodding over that index switching modes, these are not altogether bad operational indicators for cold.  

I'm interested in ESRL's EPO progs from 00z because just eye-balling the GEF members individually, it does appear to be more of them situated blocking nodes and or ridge axis at higher latitudes of N-NE Pacific arc.  The take away there/mean is that they actually have it, not so much any given particulars that are unlikely to be correct.  We'll cross the orientation bridge when the time comes.  But, from D4.5 right out to the end of the D13 ..that entire period is now rather robustly -EPO in the operational 00z, and 06z GFS, so those rumors of the EPS Pacific are not 'entirely' alone.   

In the dailies, the GFS has been signaling a whopper cold whack out there around ( now ) 204 or so hours.. but total smear time is probably a 3.5 day stint at < 520 dm thickness.. with some nadir temps that are dropping steam plumes. Yet the robuster ridge(ings) over the Alaskan sector are still out there in the la-la range of that model. I like it when 564 dm centers over Fairbanks!  There's likely to be a few renditions of mass loading into the Canadian shield, with on and off disturbance orientations/existence but, the dearth of bona fide winter patterning is apparently on a shortened lease here.

 

gefs_epo_2020010900.png

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15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

gefs_epo_2020010900.png

That's definitely deeper signaled than the recent ERSL's ...which frankly, they didn't so much reflect an actual -EPO as much as 'appeared' to merely pull down the EPO by shear numerical wave spacing in having that ungodly -PNA ripping underneath.  The latter - in other words - was stressing the domain space of the EPO just because it was/is so strong... We see this in the shared domain space of the AO and NAO all the time ... The AO tanks and the NAO drops from positive to modestly negative - that's usually an indication the NAO isn't 'really' neggiee so much as just having part of it's domain space weighted down by the flop over in geographical area..etc..etc..

However, this image above is clearly not that... We're not pulling shit when we're talking -2.5 SD spanning five days ... That's a legit signal.  It'll be interesting to see if the ESRL's variation on these reflects - also - the change.  Useful comparison for future referral too -

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

No hyperbole, windows open, grilling, kids playing, and probably some plant bulbs pushing up in spots. I'm down. These recent shitty weekends with the kids has me losing my mind. Maybe a little Zach Brown band playing with an IPA in hand. 

And a vape pen?

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