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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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4 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Euro definitely trys to go meso low in the gulf of maine and accelerate the boundary into NH sat night/sunday morning. Definitely something to watch, Sat/Sat night torch is inevitable

With ++ AO/ +NAO, I’d sell that idea south of Bangor ME. Maybe you can hedge down to Portland, but I certainly wouldn’t include much else. The cold has much more of an eastward than southward trajectory with these conditions. 

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Funny you put it this way ... I was just thinking over lunch how this is starting to just look like a warm-sector cold fropa period.   Yup...  It could still modulate the other way, but if the Euro's not biting it is probably K'o   ...  

Gee, I wonder if convection starts getting interesting -  ha

Heh, I can see that—Maybe western CT, western MA? 

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20 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

when is it not that far out? Always looks good. 

Already a pretty big change by d9-10

The clown range is getting really weenie-ish though...almost looks like 2015 with the EPO/PNA phased ridge there with low heights basically from Baffin Island to Quebec right down into the northeast.

Before that happens though, we get some ridging in Greenland around D9-12 which may help out with any storms threats in the flatter PAC look.

 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

First time I've seen the ridge in ak over the past several cycles. 

The GEPS and to a certain extent the GEFS have it as well, hopefully it isn't a head fake or a transient ridge that goes right back to what we have been dealing with....MJO may have those answers?

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1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

The GEPS and to a certain extent the GEFS have it as well, hopefully it isn't a head fake or a transient ridge that goes right back to what we have been dealing with....MJO may have those answers?

It's a bit different. The gefs has been way more aleutian ridge happy compared to other ensemble guidance. The eps and to some extent the geps is trying to ridge into eastern ak and break down and reverse the pna. 

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6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The GEPS and to a certain extent the GEFS have it as well, hopefully it isn't a head fake or a transient ridge that goes right back to what we have been dealing with....MJO may have those answers?

Full steam ahead my man. Let’s enjoy the torch and then we strap on tight for real winter. 

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4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I hope so, just saw pictures from the blizzard 2 years ago....I am ready, lol

Ya that thing was still way out at sea...that could have really been historic if it wasn't so far away having us on the western fringe so to speak....but it certainly beats where we are now; but better times ahead. 

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