dryslot Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Looked to me the 12z GFS trended to a more frozen solution for NNE Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Temp crash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 14 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Rain to the chic chocs lol...the Minster is hitting the wine again early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Nice amped up run. That tuck backed way off from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yes Doesn't everyone start as liquid though...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Doesn't everyone start as liquid though...? Not for very long it looked like especially Northern ME 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Models overall have been inconsistent about the orientation and weight of polar higher pressure over Ontario, wobbling it around east than west, when expanding the 'recency' of the runs to four or so days. Just over the last 2.5 day's worth of cycles? Sure. These appear stalwartly consistent and that feature's repositioning even slightly west makes a big difference, ...because as we know, given 1% impetus to move or tumble cold around the north end of the eastern cordillera's topographic/geography end, will free fall and turn that 1% into 500% over achievement... I guess in this situation and considering the tenor of it all and where we've been... the recent runs probably fit that better ? Unfortunate for winter enthusiasts... but, there is still a little time to see that small adjustment back E with the ballast of the higher pressure's orientation, and if that happens and that cold is given any impetus to move south, it will do so at least excuse imagined. It's like all or nothing because of our kick-back from geography/geology around here... It either fails miserably to get cold, or if cold can at all win, it will tend to bust the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Regardless of any temp crash Saturday night into Sunday, this is a disaster for most of ski country. I'm meeting up with old friends for a long-planned weekend in NH, and it's looking like we'll be playing board games and going outlet shopping rather than hitting the slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, PWMan said: Regardless of any temp crash Saturday night into Sunday, this is a disaster for most of ski country. I'm meeting up with old friends for a long-planned weekend in NH, and it's looking like we'll be playing board games and going outlet shopping rather than hitting the slopes. I know many people who haven't even gone up north for skiing so far this winter. Been a tough winter for the ski resorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I know many people who haven't even gone up north for skiing so far this winter. Been a tough winter for the ski resorts. It almost seems paradoxical but good snow in SNE helps ski areas in NNE. Serious skiers go no matter what but casual skiers which represent most I suspect are more likely to go with snow at their house. Totally different mindset vs California. LA never gets snow nor does San Francisco. But good skiing can be found a 90 minute care drive from those cities and no one obviously waits for snow in their yards..lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Models overall have been inconsistent about the orientation and weight of polar higher pressure over Ontario, wobbling it around east than west, when expanding the 'recency' of the runs to four or so days. Just over the last 2.5 day's worth of cycles? Sure. These appear stalwartly consistent and that feature's repositioning even slightly west makes a big difference, ...because as we know, given 1% impetus to move or tumble cold around the north end of the eastern cordillera's topographic/geography end, will free fall and turn that 1% into 500% over achievement... I guess in this situation and considering the tenor of it all and where we've been... the recent runs probably fit that better ? Unfortunate for winter enthusiasts... but, there is still a little time to see that small adjustment back E with the ballast of the higher pressure's orientation, and if that happens and that cold is given any impetus to move south, it will do so at least excuse imagined. It's like all or nothing because of our kick-back from geography/geology around here... It either fails miserably to get cold, or if cold can at all win, it will tend to bust the models. Current forecast, 50 and rain up in Bretton Woods...talk about a kick in the 'nads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Current forecast, 50 and rain up in Bretton Woods...talk about a kick in the 'nads Ah, it just adds water to the base and makes it more solid for powder to pile up on next week and ongoing. A little january rain is good for the soul in NNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not sure if the following is applicable buuut, January thaws were almost dependable in my youth. There is a rhyme and reason to why there's an impression in the the general lore of Humanity for the occurrence. It may not take place every year, but, patterns in general tend not to last indefinitely. That duh, is A. B, when they change, they tend to either reset, in which the same paradigm re-asserts its self, or, changes to something new. Either circumstance is technically a pattern change - just because the original character recommences, doesn't alter the fact. In the former circumstance, if the reset is a cold to cold change, those will tend to be warm(er) during the intervening period of time; which can be variable in length depending upon what is going on in the entire hemisphere at that time. The experience can be profoundly offsetting - particularly this becomes important when acclimation factor get involved. Going from highs always in the 30s and lows around 20 (which it hasn't been ..I'm just making examples here ), then, surging to 54/44 for four or five days ..even if misty, will seem like quite the thaw. May even turn the Earth to mud and remove snow pack. My fondest winter of memory was 1995-1996 for loading cold and snow ..more so it was the latter comparative to climate. Even that one had a mammoth mid season thaw that came on around the ends of January. But again...this isn't every year. Some years the reset goes from cold to warm and your skunted... Or, you don't get a "thaw" per se, because it was never cold to begin with...but the new paradigm finally does freeze and snow. ... I would say, on balance, most years ... just spit-ballin' from memory, if it gets cold and snowy early ( like pre xmass) ... you're more likely to suffer a thaw, simply by fact that usually you can't get more than 45 days before a pattern has to refit or move onto something new, and those seams time sort of mid January .. I'm sure someone with stats and patience can drill it down. But, we had a nice -EPO cold burst on our side of the hemisphere in early December... and that waned...to sort of a non-committal pattern really... and now, we move warm. As others have noted, it doesn't appear protracted? But it's kind of a battle between the American and foreign ensemble tools in that regard, because as of last night, the American side still wants to Aprilize the country. Or 2014-2015. Dec 22-29 at BOS had four days in the 40s and four days in the 50s and felt like spring. Jan turned cold by the 5th or so, but still had a day where BOS hit 50 mid-month. It was only Jan 20 that BOS fell below 40 for that 45 day stretch until March 4 (which is the longest on record, IIRC) and then only slowly crept up into the 50s (only four days in the 50s in March, which is basically the same pattern with a lot more sun). But that is absolutely the exception, and given that patterns usually last a significantly shorter time, a few days in the 40s or 50s should be expected in January. Checking out the NOW data, there have been 21 Januarys where the temperature has stayed below 50 for the entire month since 1872. So one out of every 7-8 years doesn't have a thaw that breaks 50. As for months that stay below 40, that's happened twice: Jan, 1875 and Feb, 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 15 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Current forecast, 50 and rain up in Bretton Woods...talk about a kick in the 'nads I see 43F for BW on NWS. Not that it makes it frozen or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 remember we had that massive January cutter last year? Got like 3 inches of rain, CoastalWx called it a cutter of yore, it wiped out the pack down here, and put a huge dent in PF's ego? This is just a repeat of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Ah, it just adds water to the base and makes it more solid for powder to pile up on next week and ongoing. A little january rain is good for the soul in NNE We've had a lot of December rain, now we are on track to rack up the January rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 25 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Current forecast, 50 and rain up in Bretton Woods...talk about a kick in the 'nads It’s like you never left SEMA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not sure if the following is applicable buuut, January thaws were almost dependable in my youth. There is a rhyme and reason to why there's an impression in the the general lore of Humanity for the occurrence. It may not take place every year, but, patterns in general tend not to last indefinitely. That duh, is A. B, when they change, they tend to either reset, in which the same paradigm re-asserts its self, or, changes to something new. Either circumstance is technically a pattern change - just because the original character recommences, doesn't alter the fact. In the former circumstance, if the reset is a cold to cold change, those will tend to be warm(er) during the intervening period of time; which can be variable in length depending upon what is going on in the entire hemisphere at that time. The experience can be profoundly offsetting - particularly this becomes important when acclimation factor get involved. Going from highs always in the 30s and lows around 20 (which it hasn't been ..I'm just making examples here ), then, surging to 54/44 for four or five days ..even if misty, will seem like quite the thaw. May even turn the Earth to mud and remove snow pack. My fondest winter of memory was 1995-1996 for loading cold and snow ..more so it was the latter comparative to climate. Even that one had a mammoth mid season thaw that came on around the ends of January. But again...this isn't every year. Some years the reset goes from cold to warm and your skunted... Or, you don't get a "thaw" per se, because it was never cold to begin with...but the new paradigm finally does freeze and snow. ... I would say, on balance, most years ... just spit-ballin' from memory, if it gets cold and snowy early ( like pre xmass) ... you're more likely to suffer a thaw, simply by fact that usually you can't get more than 45 days before a pattern has to refit or move onto something new, and those seams time sort of mid January .. I'm sure someone with stats and patience can drill it down. But, we had a nice -EPO cold burst on our side of the hemisphere in early December... and that waned...to sort of a non-committal pattern really... and now, we move warm. As others have noted, it doesn't appear protracted? But it's kind of a battle between the American and foreign ensemble tools in that regard, because as of last night, the American side still wants to Aprilize the country. I still remember 'Mister G' on 2 New York saying 'generally patters will last 6 weeks' in reference to (I think) that cold period in 93 or 94 when they had to shut down the bridges around NYC to bang off the ice because a chunk had hit a car and hurt someone. The cold was seemingly endless (I loved it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 37 minutes ago, weathafella said: It almost seems paradoxical but good snow in SNE helps ski areas in NNE. Serious skiers go no matter what but casual skiers which represent most I suspect are more likely to go with snow at their house. Totally different mindset vs California. LA never gets snow nor does San Francisco. But good skiing can be found a 90 minute care drive from those cities and no one obviously waits for snow in their yards..lol. I just noticed the Vermont resorts are advertising like crazy on billboards along 95 in CT. I am pretty sure I drove by one that literally just said "We have snow in VT". Talking to people here many have the mindset that if there is now snow here there is none up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Probably going to change 100 times but it looks like the far northern vt. ski areas (i.e. jay, Stowe, smuggs) would flip and maybe put some powder on top of the early slop. Could wind up being decent..any thoughts guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Going to the berkshires for a weekend getaway this weekend. Last year it was 0F. This year I might be able to pack a pair of shorts. Sheesh. Hopefully the rain can stay to a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Some good squalls upstream on radar today. Could impact the pm commutes especially if they are accompanied by some strong winds. This weekends not looking good though. Going to go ahead and cancel my plans to head up to Ragged as they will definitely be all rain it appears. Friday’s severe wx down south could be nasty, going to track that instead of this weekends mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I know many people who haven't even gone up north for skiing so far this winter. Been a tough winter for the ski resorts. SR is doing pretty well. That 15" they got really helped them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Nice amped up run. That tuck backed way off from 6z. There is no tuck with this...weak frontal wave, no Quebec surface HP. The surface CF will be arriving from the northwest... It’s a bonafied torch setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, jbenedet said: There is no tuck with this...weak frontal wave, no Quebec surface HP. The surface CF will be arriving from the northwest... It’s a bonafied torch setup. Funny you put it this way ... I was just thinking over lunch how this is starting to just look like a warm-sector cold fropa period. Yup... It could still modulate the other way, but if the Euro's not biting it is probably K'o ... Gee, I wonder if convection starts getting interesting - ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Euro definitely trys to go meso low in the gulf of maine and accelerate the boundary into NH sat night/sunday morning. Definitely something to watch, Sat/Sat night torch is inevitable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 That's a door if that front moves SW from Maine. HIgh to the north with cold dense ooze moving SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Euro definitely trys to go meso low in the gulf of maine and accelerate the boundary into NH sat night/sunday morning. Definitely something to watch, Sat/Sat night torch is inevitable May as well add Friday to that, too ... well, perhaps not "torch" whatever that definitely means, but, that looks like over-top deep layer well mixed continental flow at 12z poised and ready to rasp through any decoupling and expose the surface to dry adiabats... and with 850s already +5 down in SNE... ho man - smoke' em if you got em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's a door if that front moves SW from Maine. HIgh to the north with cold dense ooze moving SW. It's spring ... why the hell not - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: It's spring ... why the hell not - I mean it will be a spring-like pattern...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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