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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That says valid 06z sunday....so isn't that 1 am Sunday morning??  

2 AM, not that it makes much difference.  Looking at recent GFS run sequences is producing whiplash.  Repeat of March 2011, when NVT got buried and Eustis had 19" while 40 miles away I had 2" IP followed by outage-producing ZR?  (This following rainy 40s the day before.)

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14 minutes ago, tamarack said:

2 AM, not that it makes much difference.  Looking at recent GFS run sequences is producing whiplash.  Repeat of March 2011, when NVT got buried and Eustis had 19" while 40 miles away I had 2" IP followed by outage-producing ZR?  (This following rainy 40s the day before.)

5 hour difference during standard time .. it's 1 AM.  

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It's fascinating .. that sliver of warmth like that.   

There are several conflicting schools, re the weekend's shenanigans:

That much high pressure genesis and roll-out through Ontario typically doesn't stop moving S and stall along that axis as that product illustrates.  Almost invariably that would end up correcting S as the period in question goes from late mid, to mid and on inwards to the short term.  

The 2nd school ... this is a uniquely anomalous pattern - I feel - but one that is pretty well described, so should not be an opinion shared by one individual.  The flow is fast, because there is a monters ridge in the S. It may not be spatially engulfing the entire U.S. like they do in the summer, but that is purely a function of ambient, boreal heights of winter pressing south. The speed is a direct result of that compression. But why that is important is because .. this ridge ain't goin' no wheres ( most likely..). It's in part R-wave constructed, but, the construction is footed on a bloated HC tendency in the first place - which is a planetary heat source sink balancing and is thus much more permanent.  Anyway, the two are in constructive interference... and that's all verbose terminology that hearkens to a ridge that's stuck.

Thirdly... that anomalous ridging - I personally am noting ... - appears to be accentuating confluence in southern Canada. That's having an interesting counter, or offset lower troposphere factor in the temperature/thickness distribution in the NP-Lakes .. N OV and NE regions. We are seeing big highs routinely emerge across southern Canada and these are wedging cold as they would typically do.. .But, that sets up these regions with a kind of background potential of odd-ball sounding events, with big warmth flopped over llv cold.  That sliver of obscene warmth slicing up like that ... kinda sorta does fit that exaggerated llv gradient potential, though in this case... the gradient is more horizontal than vertical. Still that warm air is riding over that cold wedge either way - we just happen to have it modeled right now as though the warm intrustion to surface succeed Boston's latitude.   

I gotta say, that much high pressure up there ... if Boston pulls that off, that is some seriously unusual shit right right there.  

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Just now, Dr. Dews said:

history shows you have a not-so-hidden cold bias towards everything

Guess you haven't read Kevs posts about me. I cant win, lol some call me cold, some call me hot, some like to smoke pot 9 days old. You should read all the disparaging remarks about me on the Jan 15 thread, start around Jan 2nd. Hammered on all sides. But like 2013 2014 2017 2018 I know my score. Totally busted on 2019 until Nov and Dec but since then pretty damn good.

You however switch sides daily quicker than a Pink hatted Patriots and Red Sox fan, so there is that

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18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Guess you haven't read Kevs posts about me. I cant win, lol some call me cold, some call me hot, some like to smoke pot 9 days old. You should read all the disparaging remarks about me on the Jan 15 thread, start around Jan 2nd. Hammered on all sides. But like 2013 2014 2017 2018 I know my score. Totally busted on 2019 until Nov and Dec but since then pretty damn good.

You however switch sides daily quicker than a Pink hatted Patriots and Red Sox fan, so there is that

I do remember last summer...Chart, after chart, after chart after chart promising cool wx all July, ended up with a burning month we won't soon forget

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15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea since Will and  I were talking about the 16th on that's pretty irrelevant 

Okay didn’t realize that. But in the case of SNE, still looks quite unfavorable through the 20th —keep the shades closed but start peeking....Thinking trend is from crap pacific towards zonal flow pattern (first). 

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26 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Decent chance in portions of SNE, even if that front drops down Sunday you'll probably get a midnight high 

Normally I'd try to argue that's a transitive error put forth by a model that likes to descend heights ( typically ) to prodigiously immediately through the west...such that it would amp ridging down stream more ...leads to further west track and there we go. 

Not so sure in this case..  

As I was just writing at too much length for the twistispheric raging foment of profound intellectual elites  ... this isn't the average run-o'-the-mill obnoxious winter-time S-SE ridge rearing it's one-eyed monsterous prospect on the butts of winter enthusiastic hopefuls here.  That's anchored in the HC shit ... I mean, either is still compensate - able ... but, not when they are super-imposed ( I suspect ) which is getting me to actually lean toward the absurd, and actually think it's possible to over come a SE Canada high pressure in f'um January! wow

Actually, in fairness to the model, it's flat weakened that +PP featuring up there and also, appears to be 'angling' the trajectory of the contributing confluence more ENE in orientation, which could mean less surface N flow... oy.  

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