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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Yeah just my opinion is that the Euro and GGEM are playing into their own bias tendencies at the weekend's range, and having heights slightly too dug deeply in the broad circumvallate of the west is causing them to be too far N with that low over the western OV once it's been ejected and then has to climb the over compensated eastern height wall... Slight correction S may be warranted, but how much?

The GFS seems like it could use a bit of rasping S given the velocities overall, too - so, ... not sure what to make of that, considering it rarely need to be reminded not to go polarward early to put it "mildly"  And the first idea with the Euro and GGEM is speculative of course.

But PF's product posting is pretty sick... It's amazing enough to see ORH probably 29 while it is 58 in HFD, but the step back appeal of having -3 to +5 F draped across southern Ontario with the 60 F isotherm up to NYC and CT is getting down right Plainian - wow...

Fits the the narrative of HC expanding into the lower Ferrel latitudes ...

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I wonder ... maybe the appeal of ice storm persistence out there in the extended is really just an artifice of the GFS stretching/progressive bias. 

It's got two cold waves out there, both sporting < 510 dm thickness air spread out over vast regions of the NP-Lake-NE regions, and keeps rolling them out, ...just in time for rain... So, 10 F to 55 F with no compunctions about wildly swinging variances in temp and thermodynamics that should otherwise be capable of creating storms that drill holes in the planet. 

It did this is 2015 ...  That may be part of the GFS own bias type, to have to much resulting gradient because it has trouble curving the field and mixing at synoptic scales.  Interesting...  Either way, the -3 SD PNA while there is zippo cold signals coming from pretty much any other teleconnector out to the end of week two, doesn't lend to its massive cold dumps so it's a hot mess...

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I remember temps in the 60s in SE CT during the waning stages of the December 2008 ice storm. We were 30F and freezing drizzle with the entire grid down while SE CT was gusting to like 50 knots out of the S or SSE? I just remember seeing temps breaching 60 and thinking "holy sh**, what a temp gradient"

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember temps in the 60s in SE CT during the waning stages of the December 2008 ice storm. We were 30F and freezing drizzle with the entire grid down while SE CT was gusting to like 50 knots out of the S or SSE? I just remember seeing temps breaching 60 and thinking "holy sh**, what a temp gradient"

That cold air is beast mode up there . You can just about guarantee that presses south and south each run getting 30’s to NYC burbs 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That cold air is beast mode up there . You can just about guarantee that presses south and south each run getting 30’s to NYC burbs 

Maybe. But that SE ridge is a monster and we have a pretty deep trough out west. It's going to be a battle but not guaranteed we end up cold for the storm. Hopefully for the ski areas we get that southward trend that has happened in all of these at the day 4-6 range. That would keep them mostly snow.  

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Probably ends up as a blizzard for SNE by the time this is all said and done.  Everything seems to want to trend SE with the past like 4-5 systems.

Even that run brings ORH County a half inch of ZR.  The cold press is way south of the 850 lines.

If that’s what it takes to spare us 50f and rain, it’s worth it to me. Our snowmobile club just got out to start packing the trails last night. Don’t need to take a step back now. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Good snow up there. What a difference north of Nashua. From little to none to deep pack past the toll booth. I drove right by Kettlehead on my way to MVOH 

Nice. You were near my place. Kettlehead looks like a dive, but it's not bad. Too bad I wasn't home...I would've had you stop by for a few minutes to see dendyland. You could see the chickens you're always trying to kill.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember temps in the 60s in SE CT during the waning stages of the December 2008 ice storm. We were 30F and freezing drizzle with the entire grid down while SE CT was gusting to like 50 knots out of the S or SSE? I just remember seeing temps breaching 60 and thinking "holy sh**, what a temp gradient"

March 5-6, 2011 had a monster gradient and similar synoptic set up...frontal boundary draping across New England and very juicy wave moving through after overrunning.  

We had like an inch of rain, then ZR as the SFC chilled much faster than mid-levels, then 27” of snow on 2 more inches of QPF...and it was in the 50s in ORH.

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Wow.  

15F at RUT (10F at Middlebury) in the southern Champlain Valley and 60s in eastern Mass.  

Not sure I’ve seen a progged gradient like that.  One helluva flash freeze.

60026F43-B654-4BA0-B8F2-AE196B5CA27B.thumb.png.4419df25264c2df3f6f9ad293593426b.png

 

Keeps going... 8F at my house while windows are open in Weymouth?  50-degree spread is something else.

99436BDD-CCF4-4B2C-8686-D27C280FF418.thumb.png.08e51b5db88d2eed4fa07d376d2c7c37.png

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