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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Not sure anyone should be shorting heating oil right now...

The market price reflects trends compared to seasonal norms (it's all relative) and everyone is looking to get a jump on the 3-5 week trends

A few tweets on a friday pm or pre market monday am (or really whenever) by someone "influential" in commodites forecasting... can easily move markets at opening and all you need is a few guaranteed cents when you ( Wall street TBTF's) got the cash to be levered to the gills, ya kno. Would be like taking Candy from a baby. 

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2 hours ago, WinterLand said:

Winter over. B) It would be very interesting  if the Dec 1-3 storm turns out to be the biggest of the season for the Boston area. 

Halloween was the biggest event of 2011-2012 ... Not for Boston, but for the ballast of the area. 

Actually, I don't think Boston even really ever had an event that year ...like at all - maybe

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Halloween was the biggest event of 2011-2012 ... Not for Boston, but for the ballast of the area. 

Actually, I don't think Boston even really ever had an event that year ...like at all - maybe

Other than a couple mini events in January Boston had nada. Blue Hill did good with that October nor'easter...got 6" of paste.  I remember having to walk a mile up to the observatory that morning due to downed trees lol. Blue Hill actually set a monthly snowfall record of 8.5" for that October.

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20 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Other than a couple mini events in January Boston had nada. Blue Hill did good with that October nor'easter...got 6" of paste.  I remember having to walk a mile up to the observatory that morning due to downed trees lol. Blue Hill actually set a monthly snowfall record of 8.5" for that October.

I wonder if that challenged "futility" record as it's dubbed in here.   I mean .. going back hundreds of years ya gotta think there's a year or two others that blanked but who knows --

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if that challenged "futility" record as it's dubbed in here.   I mean .. going back hundreds of years ya gotta think there's a year or two others that blanked but who knows --

Anything under 24" is called "futile" by some snow weenies lol. I would assume there were some winters that received nearly nothing.  I wonder if they used the term, "global warming" back then.

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30 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Anything under 24" is called "futile" by some snow weenies lol. I would assume there were some winters that received nearly nothing.  I wonder if they used the term, "global warming" back then.

BOS finished with 9.3 that year.  Futility record is 9.0 (1936-37)

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's a nice run on the 18z GFS for the weekend system, That is cold and got frozen even into SNE this run.

We are focusing so much on the little critter that bites my ass, and missing what GYX suggests could be 2-3" qpf.  If a good chunk of that is frozen, that would be quite the event, especially after the talk of 60s this weekend.  This needs more hype!

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

We are focusing so much on the little critter that bites my ass, and missing what GYX suggests could be 2-3" qpf.  If a good chunk of that is frozen, that would be quite the event, especially after the talk of 60s this weekend.  This needs more hype!

I like where this is going, That's a stout high that's building in at the same time the slp moves along the front pressing the boundary south.

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Just now, dryslot said:

Thats a sharp cutoff to the precip within a few miles to the south........lol

Probably ends up as a blizzard for SNE by the time this is all said and done.  Everything seems to want to trend SE with the past like 4-5 systems.

Even that run brings ORH County a half inch of ZR.  The cold press is way south of the 850 lines.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I like where this is going, That's a stout high that's building in at the same time the slp moves along the front pressing the boundary south.

another push south makes us both very happy.  Right now you are 15" and I'm 3, though probabaly ice in there..  But this stuff does tend to keep pushing south.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Probably ends up as a blizzard for SNE by the time this is all said and done.  Everything seems to want to trend SE with the past like 4-5 systems.

Its a heck of a gradient, But at least from the trajectory this one looks to take, There would be a pretty wide swath and another one follows this one that looks to be a SWFE that moves underneath us too.

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3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

another push south makes us both very happy.  Right now you are 15" and I'm 3, though probabaly ice in there..  But this stuff does tend to keep pushing south.

I think you will see this push further south in time, That's a very cold high to the NW that models underestimate at longer leads.

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5 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I mean the next week to 10 days is garbage..but there's still a couple weeks entering the heart of winter left in january, after that. A bit premature

Also, We're very close to having enough material for the Dr Dews Random Post generator to go online. 

 

doubtful, most punt the rest of the month. I suppose everything could align just right to ruin it, but a pattern reshuffle (if so) in a few weeks, usually takes a bit longer than advertised to sort itself out and then we're a week away from Debbuary

good idea with the Dr. Dews RPG (C)... that'll be fun and definitely save some time day-to-day

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Just now, dryslot said:

Its a heck of a gradient, But at least from the trajectory this one looks to take, There would be a pretty wide swath and another one follows this one that looks to be a SWFE that moves underneath us too.

Impressive for the GFS to have surface temps so cold given that model's issues with 2-M.  Even gets ice down to NE CT there on the second wave.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Impressive for the GFS to have surface temps so cold given that model's issues with 2-M.  Even gets ice down to NE CT there on the second wave.

Euro has it too but it was further north at 12z, Some high Pwats with this one so it will have the juice.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Impressive for the GFS to have surface temps so cold given that model's issues with 2-M.  Even gets ice down to NE CT there on the second wave.

That's a great storm.  Euro is very warm. So much time to watch but that's a juicy lucy and high impact for someone 

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Ha, Like they read my mind.....

A major pattern shift commences thereafter with building heights and
a warm trend, especially aloft, heading into the weekend. A northern
stream clipper crosses Quebec early in the weekend which
provides another chance at light rain or snow and a reinforcing
shot of cold advection. This could set the stage for a complex
mixed precipitation event as warm frontal/overrunning
precipitation renews along the stalled front by the middle and
end of the weekend in response to approaching southern stream
shortwave trough moving SW to NE. This of course is highly
dependent on the position of the stalled front and thus the
southern extent of a cold low-level airmass; at this time there
is model agreement that strong high pressure over ON/QC will
provide cold flow from the north enough to push and keep this
boundary south over southern New England Saturday night.
We still have broadly diverging solutions to contend with at
this stage regarding impacts with some solutions suggesting
cool temps through the column yielding a rain/snow mix, but
others place warm temperatures aloft over cool surface
temperatures which would result widespread ice or sleet Saturday
night into Sunday. Anomalously high heights allow a juicy
airmass to develop with PWAT presently progged to exceed 1.0" by
early Sunday, 3-4 standard deviations above normal. Total QPF
could thus be on the order of 2-3" where the boundary sets up
with models for now placing the axis of rain from northern New
York state extending eastward into central and northern New
England.
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