STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Not sure anyone should be shorting heating oil right now... The market price reflects trends compared to seasonal norms (it's all relative) and everyone is looking to get a jump on the 3-5 week trends A few tweets on a friday pm or pre market monday am (or really whenever) by someone "influential" in commodites forecasting... can easily move markets at opening and all you need is a few guaranteed cents when you ( Wall street TBTF's) got the cash to be levered to the gills, ya kno. Would be like taking Candy from a baby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The HDD fetish trader mets basically cancel winter if it doesn't happen in December. LOL. They must like Kevin, then. It is surprising to learn that many mets don't like snow. Like there's 11 of us in our office here and only 2 of us are really into snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Probably the best (for winter lovers) eps rum in a few days at least for the magical Kevin date and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 hours ago, WinterLand said: Winter over. It would be very interesting if the Dec 1-3 storm turns out to be the biggest of the season for the Boston area. Halloween was the biggest event of 2011-2012 ... Not for Boston, but for the ballast of the area. Actually, I don't think Boston even really ever had an event that year ...like at all - maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Halloween was the biggest event of 2011-2012 ... Not for Boston, but for the ballast of the area. Actually, I don't think Boston even really ever had an event that year ...like at all - maybe Other than a couple mini events in January Boston had nada. Blue Hill did good with that October nor'easter...got 6" of paste. I remember having to walk a mile up to the observatory that morning due to downed trees lol. Blue Hill actually set a monthly snowfall record of 8.5" for that October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 20 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Other than a couple mini events in January Boston had nada. Blue Hill did good with that October nor'easter...got 6" of paste. I remember having to walk a mile up to the observatory that morning due to downed trees lol. Blue Hill actually set a monthly snowfall record of 8.5" for that October. I wonder if that challenged "futility" record as it's dubbed in here. I mean .. going back hundreds of years ya gotta think there's a year or two others that blanked but who knows -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I wonder if that challenged "futility" record as it's dubbed in here. I mean .. going back hundreds of years ya gotta think there's a year or two others that blanked but who knows -- Anything under 24" is called "futile" by some snow weenies lol. I would assume there were some winters that received nearly nothing. I wonder if they used the term, "global warming" back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 30 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Anything under 24" is called "futile" by some snow weenies lol. I would assume there were some winters that received nearly nothing. I wonder if they used the term, "global warming" back then. BOS finished with 9.3 that year. Futility record is 9.0 (1936-37) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: BOS finished with 9.3 that year. Futility record is 9.0 (1936-37) 10.9 at my place in Dorchester. My god. Even the cape beat me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Halloween was the biggest event of 2011-2012 ... Not for Boston, but for the ballast of the area. Actually, I don't think Boston even really ever had an event that year ...like at all - maybe Halloweenie was half of my seasonal total that season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I did this for ORH last year....I have not yet done it for BOS, but I probably will at some point. Less nickel and dimes with more quarters, makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: BOS finished with 9.3 that year. Futility record is 9.0 (1936-37) That was a La Nina year too when sirens went off for a productive winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 10.9 at my place in Dorchester. My god. Even the cape beat me. 14.5" in Lowell. That was a great winter for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 That's a nice run on the 18z GFS for the weekend system, That is cold and got frozen even into SNE this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's a nice run on the 18z GFS for the weekend system, That is cold and got frozen even into SNE this run. We are focusing so much on the little critter that bites my ass, and missing what GYX suggests could be 2-3" qpf. If a good chunk of that is frozen, that would be quite the event, especially after the talk of 60s this weekend. This needs more hype! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's a nice run on the 18z GFS for the weekend system, That is cold and got frozen even into SNE this run. From dews to 50F to two feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, mahk_webstah said: We are focusing so much on the little critter that bites my ass, and missing what GYX suggests could be 2-3" qpf. If a good chunk of that is frozen, that would be quite the event, especially after the talk of 60s this weekend. This needs more hype! I like where this is going, That's a stout high that's building in at the same time the slp moves along the front pressing the boundary south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: From dews to 50F to two feet of snow. That's a sharp cutoff to the precip within a few miles to the south........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Thats a sharp cutoff to the precip within a few miles to the south........lol Probably ends up as a blizzard for SNE by the time this is all said and done. Everything seems to want to trend SE with the past like 4-5 systems. Even that run brings ORH County a half inch of ZR. The cold press is way south of the 850 lines. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I like where this is going, That's a stout high that's building in at the same time the slp moves along the front pressing the boundary south. another push south makes us both very happy. Right now you are 15" and I'm 3, though probabaly ice in there.. But this stuff does tend to keep pushing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: Probably ends up as a blizzard for SNE by the time this is all said and done. Everything seems to want to trend SE with the past like 4-5 systems. Its a heck of a gradient, But at least from the trajectory this one looks to take, There would be a pretty wide swath and another one follows this one that looks to be a SWFE that moves underneath us too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: another push south makes us both very happy. Right now you are 15" and I'm 3, though probabaly ice in there.. But this stuff does tend to keep pushing south. I think you will see this push further south in time, That's a very cold high to the NW that models underestimate at longer leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 5 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said: I mean the next week to 10 days is garbage..but there's still a couple weeks entering the heart of winter left in january, after that. A bit premature Also, We're very close to having enough material for the Dr Dews Random Post generator to go online. doubtful, most punt the rest of the month. I suppose everything could align just right to ruin it, but a pattern reshuffle (if so) in a few weeks, usually takes a bit longer than advertised to sort itself out and then we're a week away from Debbuary good idea with the Dr. Dews RPG (C)... that'll be fun and definitely save some time day-to-day 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Its a heck of a gradient, But at least from the trajectory this one looks to take, There would be a pretty wide swath and another one follows this one that looks to be a SWFE that moves underneath us too. Impressive for the GFS to have surface temps so cold given that model's issues with 2-M. Even gets ice down to NE CT there on the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: This needs more hype! give it a couple days..it doesn't and won't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Impressive for the GFS to have surface temps so cold given that model's issues with 2-M. Even gets ice down to NE CT there on the second wave. Euro has it too but it was further north at 12z, Some high Pwats with this one so it will have the juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Good weenie out type run... Look at this QPF with temps of 5F at SLK in heavy precip and 57F at IJD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Impressive for the GFS to have surface temps so cold given that model's issues with 2-M. Even gets ice down to NE CT there on the second wave. That's a great storm. Euro is very warm. So much time to watch but that's a juicy lucy and high impact for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Ha, Like they read my mind..... A major pattern shift commences thereafter with building heights and a warm trend, especially aloft, heading into the weekend. A northern stream clipper crosses Quebec early in the weekend which provides another chance at light rain or snow and a reinforcing shot of cold advection. This could set the stage for a complex mixed precipitation event as warm frontal/overrunning precipitation renews along the stalled front by the middle and end of the weekend in response to approaching southern stream shortwave trough moving SW to NE. This of course is highly dependent on the position of the stalled front and thus the southern extent of a cold low-level airmass; at this time there is model agreement that strong high pressure over ON/QC will provide cold flow from the north enough to push and keep this boundary south over southern New England Saturday night. We still have broadly diverging solutions to contend with at this stage regarding impacts with some solutions suggesting cool temps through the column yielding a rain/snow mix, but others place warm temperatures aloft over cool surface temperatures which would result widespread ice or sleet Saturday night into Sunday. Anomalously high heights allow a juicy airmass to develop with PWAT presently progged to exceed 1.0" by early Sunday, 3-4 standard deviations above normal. Total QPF could thus be on the order of 2-3" where the boundary sets up with models for now placing the axis of rain from northern New York state extending eastward into central and northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Ice ice baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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