Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 The fast flows go both ways as far as limitations and corrections, though. Just because there is a warm, underpinning height anomaly stretching from Hawaii to Spain ...eh hm, doesn't mean there has to be warm air at mid latitudes, particularly when the velocities everywhere are such that commercial airlines are handed out record breaking West to East land-air-speed records like Pez candies. What was the recent one 801 mph. Jesus... one could take off JFK at 5:30 am and make the 8:50 meeting in London Ridges don't tend to be very amplified in the spatial orientation in rasp atmospheres, either. Troughs are forced to shallow out because the fast flow absorbs mechanical power and saps the wave strength. Ridges can't balloon in latitude as prodigiously, either, because the x-y coordinate wind stream mitigates storm --> latent heat release reduces, and the ridges stay flat. I mean that's the ultra watered down description. The models seem to have to keep correcting for either of these scenarios pretty routinely ... That's why we've seen what... four different times when the models were attempting these pig warm bubbles over eastern N/A since mid Novie, yet we've verified all of them as 55 F mist. It sucks...and a kick in the winter-nuts for snow enthusiasts, true...but I don't care about that. I'm talking about the behavior of modeling versus verfication. They've tended to be not more than, or last longer than 24 hours. Maybe this time will be different - mm I doubt it ( which means it will and the first 83 F day in Logan ever in January is about to take place..). Anywho... I think much in the same way the troughs are minoring out and their storms ... weakening and trending east relative to mid range modeling tempos, as mid ranges near ridges will tend to pancake and we'll end up with briefer warm intrusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Well at least we’ll have that Saturday torch. That’s about the only thing we do well lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well at least we’ll have that Saturday torch. That’s about the only thing we do well lately. How warm does it get during those 2-3 torch days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 29 minutes ago, weathafella said: On the long range,,,,today’s GEFS has a really nice pacific in the long range. Hopefully a precursor to an improved Atlantic. I can't wait until whatever isn't going to happen mid week, doesn't happen, so we can enjoy a nice weekend and focus on the improving look for the second half. January is a "fast forward" month this year...has looked that way since fall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 Mid-atlantic may need to install next week, that's insane for January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How warm does it get during those 2-3 torch days? Open the windows Saturday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Cooling degree days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Jspin silly post will be dripping wet and he’ll not issue an apology Thatis a furnace cutter. It does rains to Maines and spins and Alexains. Not a troll . A fact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Why bother debating 40s vs 50s. It blows either way. 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Why bother debating 40s vs 50s. It blows either way. 50s is comfortable this time of year ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 At least we can watch the Pats. Oh, wait....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can't wait until whatever isn't going to happen mid week, doesn't happen, so we can enjoy a nice weekend and focus on the improving look for the second half. January is a "fast forward" month this year...has looked that way since fall. I dunno, I feel like January being a fast forward month is not exclusive to this season. We have been here before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 16 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Why bother debating 40s vs 50s. It blows either way. 50s vs 60s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: 50s vs 60s? That, right there ...is the tedious egregious nature of this engagement lol. Watching the formulation of rationalization ( denial of truth ) by spinning things up down, left right ..whatever, that is the delusional process unfolding. That's what drive me to distraction... It's like 20" of snow is about to strike the megalopolis from DC to Maine, and someone says, "So, we get through a few inches of snow, and then it's spring - I can deal with that. It's not so bad" or whatever they need to polish them minds from having to accept - Shut it! stop - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 44 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: I dunno, I feel like January being a fast forward month is not exclusive to this season. We have been here before. 2006-2007 Winter weather didn't start until February. I imagine some folks on here were taking toaster bath's with that Winter. What a complete 180, tons of snow in February, March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 53 degrees is the magic torch number with clouds and rains. Tried and true. Without Sun that's it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Having unrealistic expectations for our climate leads to much anxiety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 CFS monthlies look good for Feb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Ok well looking ahead, we have Scandi ridging finally developing. It also looks like the PV finally gets stretched and is not concentric anymore. That’s usually a sign things are going on above. Sometimes Scandi ridging helps get that process started. I read your post to him. Great stuff. Let’s hope the Scandinavian ridge can get the wave 1 hits going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 It’s funny how the Euro rrheaa ‘s it’s pants almost snowstorm now, but rest assured it will nail the 65-70 and dews all next weekend in NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s funny how the Euro rrheaa ‘s it’s pants almost snowstorm now, but rest assured it will nail the 65-70 and dews all next weekend in NE. What forecasts have 65-70? And all of NE LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: What forecasts have 65-70? And all of NE LOl. You have to look at progs , not NWS forecasts for what is coming and then add in climatology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You have to look at progs , not NWS forecasts for what is coming I'll believe it when I see it. Looks like lower 50's here next weekend, about +20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: I'll believe it when I see it. Looks like lower 50's here next weekend, about +20. Yea, I'd defer to NWS on daily departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'd defer to NWS on daily departures. If it's going to be rainy and cloudy during this mildup, it wouldn't surprise me to stay in the upper 40's, especially the valley areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'd defer to NWS on daily departures. How come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How come? I trust their ability to diagnose daily departures...I don't blame them for not forecasting 30 degree departures at 6 days lead time...same reason you don't forecast 30" of snow 6 days out. Actual likely closer to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Maybe it will be that warm, but no reason to totally bite at day 6.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Pretty sure that map is taking 00z anomalies and not daily departures off of high temps. He should've posted the 6z anomalies though because the actual temps are even warmer than 00z with the WAA ahead of the cold fropa. Our typical 60F midnight torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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