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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. It a bad 00z set tonight. 

Huh????  I have a seen a large tick west with the models as of the 00z set so far.  NAM is west, SREFs are west, GFS is west, CMC is fine, ICON sucks, we are waiting on the UKMET and EURO tonight.  Other models ticked west and have at least 3-5 inches for the Cape and SE MA.

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6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

If you are reasonable, then this system will provide, but you think it will be 12"+ then sure it is disappointing.  You should never give up on an event 66 hours out with the mess the models have been recently.

 Never is a bit strong but yes, very variable pattern that is never a lock beyond 48hrs.  The fast jet flow has been pretty impressive with mitigating the logical atmospheric model leaning towards Low pressure cutting to the lakes but eventually flattening.  The sneaky E Canada Highs are always the wildcard in this type of transitional pattern. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

00z model cycle continues to improve from the far east runs yesterday of the 12z cycle, with the latest 00z UKMET run now over the BM.  I could see further trends towards a more intense low, faster development and higher rates of precipitation.

Correction NW from today’s runs expected.  This will be a nice 2-4” event for some SNE peeps.  Anything more is welcome gravy. 

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