WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it's possible we torch on that look but I've seen so many times where that confluence look in Quebec keeps us out of the warms sector. At the very least it looks short lived on that H5. Ya Ridge looks to be starting to build into Alaska on that frame from the previous page....hope so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 By D10, you can see the next lakes cutter about to slice far west, like the previous one does. In-between torches and sure, CAD to begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 NAM at 84 would prob support an inch or two...maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NAM at 84 would prob support an inch or two/ hr...maybe Fyp 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Nam was going to town for the cranberry bogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 IMO, the East Coast ridge that's causing most of our grief will start to move south. This will be followed by an Alaska ridge pattern and colder than normal temperatures in the Northeast. You can see it starting later this month on the EPS. By the end of January to February, there's going to be a transition to a bullish period for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 39 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NAM at 84 would prob support an inch or two...maybe Nah, after 84 hours that secondary was going to explode, look at H5, that energy entering the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Yeah. Dec '92 broke the drought for me and then we had some amazing winters there for a time before the little lull in late '90s. Took Pinatubo to do that. The snow we got in April 92 and the summer without a 90F at BOS we’re a result of that event, and followed 9 months of the obligatory NAO+ that accompanies a tropical volcanic eruption.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Nah, after 84 hours that secondary was going to explode, look at H5, that energy entering the trough. Well, it did show a drop of 7 mb in 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 ICON now whiffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: ICON now whiffs Pretty significant chance In only 6 hours. We know where this is headed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Now every model is a miss. Respect those ridiculous upper air winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Now every model is a miss. Respect those ridiculous upper air winds So when it comes back tomorrow night...then what? Can very easily happen. Don’t write it off just yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Gfs even further away...... whifffffff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 18z GFS is a whiff other then some IVT snows over DE Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: So when it comes back tomorrow night...then what? Can very easily happen. Don’t write it off just yet... Lol. It’s not coming back tomorrow. There’s no wiggle room. Jan 20 is a long way off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. It’s not coming back tomorrow. There’s no wiggle room. Jan 20 is a long way off Ok Nostradamus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: Ok Nostradamus. I think even the Mets will tell you that in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think even the Mets will tell you that in the morning I’m not thinking it’s over for this just yet. Just my gut..but will wait at least another 24 hours before I throw in the towel on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Almost whiffs me here too although I’d roll the dice with that look. This could be another for St. Nick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 That clipper really lowers the heights over NE, Not a lot of room between that s/w and the follow up one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’m not thinking it’s over for this just yet. Just my gut..but will wait at least another 24 hours before I throw in the towel on this one. Anyone who has been around the block with these systems would never totally discount it at this lead with that look. Kevin is doing his reverse psychology shtick...nobody is buying it. We all know he's going to be looking at each run just waiting to jump back on. He hasn't checked out of this threat yet. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 18z recap is not great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 from the panic room, BOS 13 days? aoa 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said: IMO, the East Coast ridge that's causing most of our grief will start to move south. This will be followed by an Alaska ridge pattern and colder than normal temperatures in the Northeast. You can see it starting later this month on the EPS. By the end of January to February, there's going to be a transition to a bullish period for us. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 36 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 18z recap is not great Aside from NAM which was near perfect..but meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Aside from NAM which was near perfect..but meh Yeah.... the least reliable guidance was the best.... I know where I’m standing on this, and it isn’t with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Sept 16-18 is very close to Jan 1-3 nationally. Supports the idea that Sept 16-Oct 15 will look like January 2020...and that Oct 16-Nov 15 will look like February 2020 - severely cold in the middle of the US. Aug 16-Sept 15 looked like December, very warm, but little pieces of cold held temps down in the Northern Plains & New England. Not exact matches, but it has been holding up fairly well. The Sept 16-Oct 15 periods looks like what the models show too. The 85F in Jacksonville was pretty impressive the other day, remind me of when it was over 100 in early October in Alabama. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, raindancewx said: Sept 16-18 is very close to Jan 1-3 nationally. Supports the idea that Sept 16-Oct 15 will look like January 2020...and that Oct 16-Nov 15 will look like February 2020 - severely cold in the middle of the US. Aug 16-Sept 15 looked like December, very warm, but little pieces of cold held temps down in the Northern Plains & New England. Not exact matches, but it has been holding up fairly well. The Sept 16-Oct 15 periods looks like what the models show too. The 85F in Jacksonville was pretty impressive the other day, remind me of when it was over 100 in early October in Alabama. . I could buy that look for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 My only problem with that is you're comparing a transition of summer wavelengths to cool season ones when these next two periods that are much longer Jan/Feb wavelengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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